Kentucky Football Goals in Season-Opener vs. ULM

Kentucky opens the season with a non-conference matchup against the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks. The Wildcats are heavily favored. Expectations are rampant with all the newness surrounding Liam Coen’s offense, Wan’Dale Robinson and Will Levis. Let’s be honest here: UK will win on Saturday. But, there are multiple goals that Mark Stoops’ team will need to accomplish in order to have positive momentum before Missouri rolls into Lexington. 

Offensive Goals

There’s a great deal of build up for the Cats’ opener. A significant portion of the sentiment is based on the anticipation in seeing Liam Coen’s NFL-centric offense and new starting quarterback Will Levis. The new UK play-caller has indicated that he intends on giving All-SEC running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. 20 touches per game. Coen also has an experienced and commanding offensive line led by All-American tackle Darian Kinnard.  

Balance — UK has been one of the SEC’s top rushing offenses in recent years. But, its passing game was ranked last in the league for three consecutive seasons. Mark Stoops is seeking balance. His quest for an increase in the forward pass led to the hiring of former LA Rams’ assistant Liam Coen. A 60/40 run-to-pass ratio is reasonable against the Warhawks. The ground game could see more action if UK opens up the scoring margin late in the second half and executes a conservative game plan. 

Explosive Plays — Sticking with recent trend, Kentucky ranked 13th in the SEC after producing 114 plays of 10+ yards from scrimmage in 2020. The Wildcats ranked last in the conference completing just 53 passes that exceeded ten yards a year ago. Don’t expect the Cats to throw vertical routes and take shots on every down. Coen will be choosy in when deciding to go for the home run ball. However, explosiveness is a category that must see an increase in 2021. A rise to eight pass plays that go beyond ten yards would be an increase to its 4.8 per game average in 2020. 

Tight End Involvement — Insert broken record remarks here. The Big Blue Nation has clamored for more action for Vince Marrow’s group. Wildcat tight ends averaged 2.6 receptions per game in 2020. Coen’s pro-style system favors throwing to TE’s by taking advantage of personnel groupings, formations, and motions. Expect Justin Rigg, Brenden Bates, Izayah Cummings, and Jordan Dingle to combine for seven or more catches on Saturday. 

Defensive Goals 

The Kentucky defense has produced back-to-back top five finishes in the Southeastern Conference. UK led the league in forced turnovers last season and topped the conference in pass defense in both 2019 and 2020. With ten starting seniors, there’s not a great deal of statistical improvement that needs to be accomplished. However, Mark Stoops and Brad White are never satisfied. Defensive standards remain high. 

More QB Sacks — Wildcat pass rushers averaged 1.4 quarterback sacks per outing in 2020. It totaled 15 sacks during the eleven-game, shortened season. Defensive end Josh Paschal and edge defenders Jordan Wright and JJ Weaver are the Cats’ designated sack artists. ULM will go fast. Offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez is known for an uptempo scheme that executes a high number of plays. His 2017 Arizona Wildcats led the Pac-12 after averaging seven yards per play and 490 yards a game. Quick, timing passes and a reliance on the read option may limit the number of sack opportunities. However, a realistic goal of three QB sacks is attainable. 

Get the Football — Kentucky led the SEC after gaining 22 turnovers last season. It recovered six fumbles and intercepted 16 passes. The Cat’s .91 turnover per game margin was also tops in the conference. An opportunistic group of veteran safeties and nickel defenders could benefit from ULM’s lack of experienced skill players. A realistic goal of two forced turnovers would suffice. 

Special Teams Goals

There is not a specific number for this category. The term “playing clean” is broad but applicable when referencing UK’s special teams for Saturday. From a two-point conversion allowed against Auburn to bad snaps against Mississippi State and Alabama, Kentucky endured multiple third phase errors in 2020. No botched special team’s plays will suffice here.  Kentucky cannot afford self-inflicted errors. 

The Bottom Line 

The Mark Stoops era has experienced three offensive coordinators that made their debuts against non-conference foes. Neal Brown, Shannon Dawson, and Eddie Gran combined to average 33.6 points and 421 yards in their opening games on the Kentucky sideline. UK’s record in those contests against WKU, Louisiana, and Southern Miss is 1-2. I foresee the Wildcats to surpass the half-century mark on the offensive scoreboard Saturday. Depth and a substantial talent advantage should overwhelm Terry Bowden’s rebuilding squad.  

UK should top the 50-point threshold. A lopsided affair could turn uglier late due to Kentucky’s depth at the running back position. Fourth quarter carries within simplistic play calls may lead to end-of-game scores. In addition, a 500 total yard mark is reachable.  

Brad White and Jon Sumrall’s defense will enjoy personnel advantages at most, if not all, spots on the field. This could result in a high number of havoc plays. ULM will go fast. Rich Rodriguez has proven to be an effective play caller. His offense might give UK early problems based on the sheer number of unknowns within the Warhawk’s depth chart. The Cats should settle into the contest and limit the visitors to less than twenty points. 

Again, let’s be honest here. Kentucky will win on Saturday. I mean no disrespect to the visitors. But the truth is that the two programs are in much different places going into the 2021 season. Several prognosticators have UK projected to win eight-plus games. ULM is looking for a bounce-back season following an 0-10 showing in 2020. Terry Bowden is a proven head coach with 175 career wins. He will improve that program. The same can be said about offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez who sports more than 160 victories as a head coach. 27-year-old defensive coordinator Zac Alley is hungry to prove his worth against an SEC opponent. The ULM coaching staff is relying on gamesmanship to gain an advantage leading up to Saturday. Bowden has kept his depth chart and roster mostly secret. There are 50+ new additions to the roster including starting quarterback Rhett Rodriguez. 

The BBN has waited a long time to cheer on the Cats in person. Should be a fun one at Kroger Field.