BTI's Rants and Ramblings: Kentucky Football HAS to do these things to Win SEC East

For many, Kentucky football has achieved many of the goals that this fanbase has wanted for so many years during Mark Stoops’ tenure. Ending the streaks against Tennessee and Florida, consistent domination over Louisville, and a stability in the recruiting and results that had plagued the program before Stoops. Even during the “down years” Kentucky football still makes bowl games, has big wins, exciting players, NFL Draft picks, and can keep the interest of the fanbase through the entire season.

But the one goal that has eluded the program and has caused disagreement on just how close Kentucky actually is to achieving this is winning the SEC Eastern Division. In 2018, they played a de facto championship game against Georgia at Kroger Field, but the reality is the gap between that Bulldogs team and the UK squad was pretty significant. Now, once again, the fanbase has broken down the schedule, looked at the roster, and convinced itself that the SEC East title is within reach. But I don’t think just looking at those factors is the only thing we can do to determine the realistic possibility of making it to Atlanta. We simply can look into the past at what previous champions have and have not done to determine what the Cats have to do in their 8 SEC games.

Going Undefeated Is Nowhere Near a Must

Since the SEC broke into 2 divisions in 1992, there have been 28 SEC East champions, not counting the 2020-COVID year. All 28 of those champions have played an 8-game SEC schedule. And only 4 of those 28 champions went 8-0 in those games. It’s only happened once since 1999 and that was the national champion, Tebow-led Florida Gators of 2009. Once in the last 20 years. Now, this doesn’t mean that multiple losses works that often either. Eighteen of the 28 champions went 7-1 in conference play. Meaning a total of 22 of the 28 winners has lost 1 or 0 games in conference. Simply put, slipping up isn’t a big deal for UK this year. Slipping up more than once though really puts the Cats behind the 8-ball. If we believe the game against Georgia is the least likely win, then UK needs to try and pull off the rest to feel good. And if you try and justify a 5-3 record somehow making Atlanta, know that has happened just once in those 28 years, the 2010 South Carolina Gamecocks.

Getting Blown Out is Fine Too

You might think that SEC East Champions don’t get blown out. But the reality is that is not true. Take a look at these results of SEC Champs:

1992: Mississippi State 30, Florida 6

2004: Auburn 34, Tennessee 10

2007: Florida 59, Tennessee 20

2007: Alabama 41, Tennessee 17

2010: Arkansas 41, South Carolina 20

2012: South Carolina 35, Georgia 7

2014: Georgia 34, Missouri 0

2016: Arkansas 31, Florida 10

2017: Auburn 41, Georgia 17

2018: LSU 36, Georgia 16

Ten of the SEC East champions have lost a game by 20 or more points during conference play. Getting trounced is not an indicator that things won’t go well. We all know that UK football has laid some eggs during the Mark Stoops tenure but if that happens in 2021, we shouldn’t give up on the dream just yet.

Losing to the SEC West is the better route

Those 28 SEC East champs have lost a total of 31 games combined. Of those 31 losses, 17 of them have come against SEC West teams. The reasoning is not that hard to figure out. Losing to SEC East schools is harder because those teams hold tiebreakers over you but sweeping the 6 SEC East games puts you in the drivers seat and gives you the ability to lose an SEC West game without it hurting your position in the order. So while the game in Athens is the hardest spot on the schedule, if the Cats can pull off that shocker and knock off the other 5 SEC East teams, then dropping a game to LSU or Mississippi State would be fine.

The Path is there for a title

It won’t be easy. It never is for any team to win a division title. But looking back at previous champions’ resumes made me feel a little better about Kentucky’s chances. There is far more wiggle room to lose a game, or even games if we’re lucky, and still accomplish a trip to Atlanta to get trounced by Alabama. South Carolina and Missouri have each made trips to the SEC Championship in the recent past. Neither school holds advantages that we don’t have. This program has a dream and that dream has never been more possible to accomplish than it is now. It feels like Mark Stoops has been building something and leading to something. We all hope that path leads to Atlanta. You see now how it can done. Here’s to hoping the Cats can get it done.