Monday Huddle: Moving Forward

The Kentucky football program was in a bad place entering Week 3. Another loss was added over the weekend to drop this team into an 0-2 SEC hole but there is now a path to avoid a disaster season and carve out a good season. We saw what the Wildcats could become this year in the 13-12 loss to No. 1 Georgia on Saturday night.

There are many things to fix (eventually you need to end this touchdown drought) but some good came from the team’s effort in Week 3. Kentucky’s coaching staff had a good play and got full buy-in from the roster facing a daunting challenge. Now we need to see the Wildcats start stacking some good performances.

We entered this season knowing that Kentucky had one of its best rosters in recent memory. That couldn’t look farther from the truth in Week 2, but it certainly looked true in Week 3. Who truly is this team? We will find out over the next nine games.

KSR’s Monday Huddle returns to kick off Ohio week and dive into the areas where Kentucky must continue to develop.

First Down: Kentucky has an offensive identity

Kentucky football has typically been at its best under Mark Stoops when the offense can run the ball with efficiency. That allows the Wildcats to own game control and play true complementary football. But it’s something the Wildcats have been unable to do over the last two seasons.

The offense ranked No. 100 in rushing success rate (37.5%) in 2022 under offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello as the program dealt with massive offensive line issues. Kentucky’s offense ranked No. 90 in rushing success rate (39%) under offensive coordinator Liam Coen. The Wildcats had a boom-or-bust rushing attack as the offensive line improved but had a difficult time resetting the line of scrimmage in SEC play.

Through two SEC games under new offensive line coach Eric Wolford, the Wildcats have had no issues resetting the line of scrimmage and are quietly building one of the most efficient rushing attacks in college football. Kentucky ranks No. 12 in rushing success rate (51.4%) following three weeks of football. You could argue that Georgia and South Carolina had two of the best four defensive fronts the Wildcats will see all year. The run game success is likely not going away.

Kentucky currently ranks No. 93 overall in rushes of 20-plus yards (two). Last season, the Wildcats finished No. 26 overall in rushes of 20-plus yards (22). Bush Hamdan‘s offense must find some more explosive play pop but it feels like only a matter of time before that arrives. Redshirt freshman Jamarion Wilcox and true freshman Jason Patterson each have some juice as runners and the offense will get Chip Trayanum back at some point over the next few weeks. The QB run element (159 non-sack yards) has been there to diversify this attack. We can expect Kentucky to be a run-heavy team moving forward.

Regaining efficiency in the run game was a top goal for the offense in the offseason and that goal has been accomplished through three games. Now we need to see more explosives, and for a struggling passing game (No. 131 in success rate, No. 132 in EPA/play) to complement that efficient running game.

Much talk this week will be about going eight quarters without scoring a touchdown, but the identity is being formed, and that is going to help Kentucky win games moving forward. The Wildcats are simply at their best when they can run the football with efficiency.

An established run game on Week 4 could lead to big things for Brock Vandagriff and this Kentucky passing game facing an Ohio defense that ranks No. 112 in passing success rate and No. 119 in passing EPA/play.

Second Down: How good can this defense be?

In ESPN’s updated SP+ rankings, Kentucky’s defense is up to No. 26 overall after starting the year at No. 31 overall. Only two defenses in the Mark Stoops era (2018 and 2022) finished the season ranked higher. The Wildcats just held a top-five offense to 12 first downs, 4.9 yards per play, 102 non-sack rushing yards, and got stops on 8-of-13 third down attempts.

Outside of some coverage busts against South Carolina, this has looked like a top-10 unit. Can the Wildcats start playing at that level consistently?

Kentucky’s run defense (No. 2 in rush success rate allowed, No. 6 in rushing EPA/play) is once again a clear strength and will be the backbone of this unit. The pass defense is where the real questions are and will ultimately determine this group’s ceiling.

The Wildcats held Carson Beck to a 41.7 percent passing success rate on 24 throws on Saturday night. That was 13 percentage points lower (54.7%) than his final numbers from the 2024 season. If that becomes consistent, this defense will be a bear to deal with.

Kentucky owns an outstanding havoc rate (23%) with 23 tackles for loss and four forced fumbles. Unfortunately, that havoc is not turning into takeaways with only three total takeaways and zero fumble recoveries. South Carolina and Georgia combined to fumble six times over the last two weeks and the Wildcats recovered none of them. The defense is due a bounce and a takeaway barrage could be on the way as long as the havoc creation does not see any slippage.

We entered the season believing that this could become one of the best Kentucky defenses in recent memory. I would not back away from that expectation yet. The Wildcats have a chance to become a top-10 defense and facing a run-heavy Ohio attack in Week 4 should be a good matchup.

Third Down: Pass protection is a massive issue

We began this column by talking about how the offensive line is accomplishing the top mission for this football team, but they are also sinking the team in a critical area. The Kentucky passing game is again posting some woeful numbers through three games, but the protection is the biggest area holding the offense back.

Kentucky has had 79 dropbacks this season with quarterback Brock Vandagriff and Gavin Wimsatt being pressured a combined 38 times. That’s a 48.1 percent pressure rate allowed. Nearly every other pass play the quarterback is getting moved off his spot because of the opposing pass rush. That is no way to live on offense.

Georgia recorded 21 pressures on 37 dropbacks (56.8% pressure rate). South Carolina recorded 13 pressures on 22 dropbacks (59.1% pressure rate). Kentucky cannot protect and this is the main reason why the passing game numbers are so ugly through three games.

We should expect to see an establish the run philosophy with quick game and play-action concepts to help protect this offensive front, but eventually, this unit needs to start holding up in protection. Due to the high pressure numbers, we can’t even give Brock Vandagriff a proper evaluation as a passer due to the constant pocket stress that is being created.

The offense appears to have a path forward thanks to the group’s efficient run game operation, but odds are high that something bad is going to happen in a passing situation due to this unit’s inability to protect. Kentucky has to find a way to sure up this problem. Right now the passing game is a lost cause because of the constant duress and that likely played a big role in Mark Stoops’ decision to punt at the end of the game.

It felt more likely that Georgia would’ve fumbled or thrown an incomplete pass before Kentucky converted a fourth-and-long due to the bad protection.

The week ahead at KSR

The second non-conference game has arrived, and KSR will provide the Big Blue Nation with in-depth pregame content from now until kickoff arrives on Saturday night.

We will have full coverage of Mark Stoops’ press conference on Monday before breaking down the fourth depth chart of the season. From there, practice reports and daily podcasts will take over as Saturday approaches.

Over at KSR+, we will have our in-depth scouting report on Ohio published on Thursday along with some more pregame content before the games finally start. It’s time to get this party started.

Want more Kentucky football intel? Join KSR Plus for the most comprehensive coverage of the Cats on the internet. With a KSR membership, you get access to bonus content and KSBoard, KSR’s message board, to chat with fellow Cats fans and get exclusive scoop.

Kentucky is in a 1-2 hole but there is a path forward to winning football games. Mark Stoops has a team that can play true complementary football and that should ultimately lead to some good moments moving forward, but the program must start stacking good performances together. Saturday will be a nice way to prove that the Week 3 performance was not a fluke.