Monday Huddle: Unexpected Big Game Week

The 2023 meeting between Kentucky and Vanderbilt had a different twist and more additional stakes than normal thanks to the game being moved to September for the first time in a decade and the Ray Davis storyline.

This year’s game will be even bigger.

Vanderbilt (3-2, 1-1) is fresh off the program’s best all-time win after the Commodores knocked off No. 1 Alabama in a 40-35 thriller highlighted by fans tearing down the goalposts and walking them through downtown Nashville.

What a sport.

The Vandy goalpost traveled almost 3 miles to get to the Cumberland River 🔥😳

From tearing it down to ending up in the river it only took @VandyFootball fans a little over an hour to get the job done 🤯 pic.twitter.com/ULSZyNHTk2

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 6, 2024

Clark Lea‘s program will be the top story in college football this week as they enter another SEC game as a double-digit dog. Kentucky, fresh off its own top-10 victory, will be looking to stack some wins together after falling into a 0-2 hole to begin conference play.

KSR’s Monday Huddle begins the football week as an unexpected big game has arrived in October.

First Down: Stopping Diego Pavia

Clark Lea quietly made a sneaky good change on offense in the offseason by bringing over the New Mexico State braintrust (head coach Jerry Kill, offensive coordinator Tim Beck) to run the show on the West End. Multiple tailbacks, flex tight end Eli Stowers, and starting quarterback Diego Pavia were added to the roster after the Aggies finished the 2023 season with 10 wins.

NMSU finished ranked No. 12 in success rate, No. 33 in EPA/play, and No. 44 in points per drive last fall. Pavia was the engine accumulating 2,974 passing yards, 1,058 non-sack rushing yards, and 33 total touchdowns while earning Conference USA Player of the Year honors running a unique option scheme with a boatload of misdirection.

Those moves by Lea all look like clear home runs at this point as Vanderbilt’s offense ranks No. 29 in success rate . The transfer quarterback is completing 66.7 percent of his passes on 9.3 yards per attempt and leads Vanderbilt in non-sack rushing yards (394). Vandy ranks No. 20 in third down conversion rate and No. 21 in red zone touchdown rate thanks largely due to the efficiency and playmaking from Pavia.

WHAT. A. PLAY pic.twitter.com/1OURMUFi9o

— Vanderbilt Football (@VandyFootball) October 5, 2024

In any game with Vanderbilt this season, the No. 1 goal will be to stop Pavia. The dynamic quarterback is not very big (6-0, 207) or fast but he is decisive, elusive, and plays with tremendous instincts. Vandy wants to shrink the game with a ball control offense. Kentucky must play gap sound with good eye discipline this week, but when push comes to shove, you have to pin the quarterback on the ground. That is easier said than done.

The top goal for Kentucky on Saturday will be to slow Pavia. That means finishing tackles, limiting explosive passing plays, and winning on third down.

Second Down: Taking another step on offense

On Saturday afternoon in Columbia, Ole Miss jumped out to an early lead and shifted into cruise control. The defense held South Carolina to three points on 13 possessions limiting the Gamecocks to 4.1 yards per play and a 34 percent offensive success rate.

That could be a sign of how Kentucky’s offense is progressing.

Bush Hamdan‘s offense scored 20 points in 10 possessions against that same Ole Miss defense on a 37.5 percent success rate and 4.8 yards per play. Those are not pretty numbers, but the Rebels are starting to feel like a top-10 defense in college football.

Now what can Kentucky do against a power conference defense that looks like one of the worst in the league?

Clark Lea has taken over defensive play-calling but Vandy still has major issues on this side of the football. The Commodores rank sub-90 in EPA/play allowed and yards per dropback allowed. Lea’s group has been surprisingly salty against the run (No. 15 in rushing success rate allowed) but the glitches are glaring. Texas A&M is the only team in the SEC to allow more 20-plus yard rushes than Vandy. Florida is the only team in the SEC to allow more 20-plus yard completions than Vandy.

This defense has an explosive play problem. Can the Kentucky offense take advantage?

We’ve seen Kentucky win the explosive play battle in consecutive weeks thanks to Dane Key winning in between the numbers and Barion Brown coming up big in the fourth quarter against Ole Miss. However, this run-heavy offense is desperately missing explosive run plays (No. 85 overall in rushes of 20-plus yards). Could that all come together on Saturday?

Vanderbilt beat Alabama because they shortened the game (13-of-19 on third/fourth down in nine possessions) and forced two takeaways in 10 defensive possessions. One led directly to points (first quarter pick-six) and a sack fumble gave the offense the ball at midfield. There is danger in trading body blows with Vanderbilt. The path to winning for the home team gets a lot easier if they take advantage of a leaky defense.

Explosive plays will be needed on Saturday night. If Kentucky’s offense is heading in the right direction, we should see them occur both in the run and pass game against this Vanderbilt group. The Wildcats need to score some points in this contest. A two-possession lead for either team might feel insurmountable.

Third Down: Kentucky has struggled in this spot

Everyone has strengths and weaknesses no matter what area of work. Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has been able to enhance his strengths and that has led to some memorable moments for this football program. But one of the biggest weaknesses will be at play on Saturday night.

The Wildcats stink off bye weeks.

Since 2013, Kentucky is 5-8 outright and 3-10 against the spread (ATS) off regular season bye weeks since 2013. The Cats are 0-8 ATS since 2017. That is a very bad trend.

However, the upcoming meeting with Vanderbilt will be different. Kentucky has only been a double-digit favorite in this stretch three times and each meeting came against Vanderbilt. The Wildcats did not cover in any of the meetings in 2014, 2018, or 2020, but did win each game outright.

Will that trend hold?

Vanderbilt is currently a 13.5-point underdog in this Week 7 matchup. Kentucky has been more than a touchdown favorite 11 times against power conference foes under Stoops. The Wildcats are 9-2 outright but two of those losses have occurred at home in the last two seasons. Kentucky owns just a 4-7 ATS mark.

This situation is one Kentucky has historically struggled in during the Stoops era. Can Kentucky overcome this program inefficiency on Saturday night?

The week ahead at KSR

The fourth conference game of the season has arrived, and KSR will provide the Big Blue Nation with in-depth pregame content from now until kickoff arrives on Saturday afternoon.

We will have full coverage of Mark Stoops’ press conference on Monday afternoon. From there, practice reports and podcasts will take over as Saturday approaches. Our first availability report of the week will drop on Wednesday where we will learn the status of tailback Chip Trayanum, cornerback Maxwell Hairston, and wide receiver Hardley Gilmore IV.

Over at KSR+, we will have our in-depth scouting report on Vanderbilt will go live on Thursday along with some more pregame content. A big home game has arrived for the first Keeneland double-dip of October.

Want more Kentucky football intel? Join KSR Plus for the most comprehensive coverage of the Cats on the internet. With a KSR membership, you get access to bonus content and KSBoard, KSR’s message board, to chat with fellow Cats fans and get exclusive scoop.

Kentucky has a chance to go on a mini-run in October, but the program needs to win a home conference game for the first time since Week 5 last year to start it off. The challenge against Vanderbilt looks tougher than expected.