Kentucky has been cover machine against Group of Five foes

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Kentucky Wildcat mascot at Kroger Field - Dr. Michael Huang, Kentucky Sports Radio

During Kentucky’s run to 10-3 in 2018, the Wildcats had some issues in the non-conference. Outside of a blowout victory against an awful Louisville team, both Central Michigan and Middle Tennessee jumped out to early leads against the Wildcats. Kentucky failed to cover as a 17-point and 16-point favorite. That made UK 2-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 matchups with Group of Five programs.

That has been flipped over the last five-plus seasons.

2019 | Kentucky (-11) vs. Toledo | Cats 38, Rockets 24
2019 | Kentucky (-15) vs. Eastern Michigan | Cats 38, Eagles 17
2021 | Kentucky (-31) vs. ULM | Cats 45, Warhawks 10
2021 | Kentucky (-35) vs. New Mexico State | Cats 56, Aggies 16
2022 | Kentucky (-15) vs. Miami (Ohio) | Cats 37, RedHawks 13
2022 | Kentucky (-26) vs. Northern Illinois | Cats 31, Huskies 23
2023 | Kentucky (-25) vs. Ball State | Cats 44, Cardinals 14
2023 | Kentucky (-25) vs. Akron | Cats 35, Zips 3
2024 | Kentucky (-25.5) vs. Southern Miss | Cats 31, Golden Eagles 0*

Throwing the cancellation of Kentucky’s Week 1 game into the group and the Wildcats are 9-0 outright and 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with Group of Five opponents. The third quarter cancellation in Week 1 ended UK’s streak of scoring at least 35 points in matchups with Group of Five foes. Only two teams have scored more than 17 points against Kentucky in this stretch.

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Ohio is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a road underdog against power conference foes. The recent trends tell us that Kentucky will play well on Saturday afternoon.

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