Kentucky has been cover machine against Group of Five foes

During Kentucky’s run to 10-3 in 2018, the Wildcats had some issues in the non-conference. Outside of a blowout victory against an awful Louisville team, both Central Michigan and Middle Tennessee jumped out to early leads against the Wildcats. Kentucky failed to cover as a 17-point and 16-point favorite. That made UK 2-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 matchups with Group of Five programs.

That has been flipped over the last five-plus seasons.

• 2019 | Kentucky (-11) vs. Toledo | Cats 38, Rockets 24
• 2019 | Kentucky (-15) vs. Eastern Michigan | Cats 38, Eagles 17
• 2021 | Kentucky (-31) vs. ULM | Cats 45, Warhawks 10
• 2021 | Kentucky (-35) vs. New Mexico State | Cats 56, Aggies 16
• 2022 | Kentucky (-15) vs. Miami (Ohio) | Cats 37, RedHawks 13
• 2022 | Kentucky (-26) vs. Northern Illinois | Cats 31, Huskies 23
• 2023 | Kentucky (-25) vs. Ball State | Cats 44, Cardinals 14
• 2023 | Kentucky (-25) vs. Akron | Cats 35, Zips 3
• 2024 | Kentucky (-25.5) vs. Southern Miss | Cats 31, Golden Eagles 0*

Throwing the cancellation of Kentucky’s Week 1 game into the group and the Wildcats are 9-0 outright and 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with Group of Five opponents. The third quarter cancellation in Week 1 ended UK’s streak of scoring at least 35 points in matchups with Group of Five foes. Only two teams have scored more than 17 points against Kentucky in this stretch.

Ohio is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a road underdog against power conference foes. The recent trends tell us that Kentucky will play well on Saturday afternoon.

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