Kentucky Football just outside of Preseason ESPN FPI Top 25

In 130 days the 2023 college football season will kick off in Dublin, Ireland when Notre Dame takes on Navy. It’s the perfect time to roll out a new preseason top 25.

This ranking system is another computer-based projection created by ESPN. The Worldwide Leader uses two primary power ratings, SP+ and FPI. Mark Stoops’ 2023 Kentucky football team ranked No. 24 in the first preseason SP+ ratings. FPI was not so kind to the Cats.

Kentucky falls just outside of the first edition of the 2023 ESPN FPI rankings at No. 28 overall. There are seven SEC teams in the Top 25, four of which are UK opponents this fall.

Alabama ranks No. 2, one spot ahead of Georgia. Both teams are looking for new quarterbacks in spring practice. Tennessee is also searching for Hendon Hooker‘s replacement, with Joe Milton most likely getting the nod ahead of highly-touted freshman Nico Iamaleava.

The biggest outlier is Florida. I know the numbers are the numbers, but you won’t find the Gators in many preseason top 25 polls. After a disastrous spring game, optimism is hard to find in Gainesville. With a difficult schedule this fall, their season win total will not be higher than seven. They will not be a popular pick in the preseason poll selected at SEC Media Days.

How ESPN’s FPI Rankings Work

The KSR football crew is a big fan of SP+ because it is a forward-thinking metric that can be used to forecast betting lines between teams well in advance. FPI is a tool some bettors use, just not this guy.

According to ESPN, in the preseason FPI relies on past performance on offense and defense. It uses returning and transfer production, as well as past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. ESPN then uses those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, creating this Top 25 projection.

In 2022, Kentucky spent nine weeks in the AP Top 25. If the ESPN FPI holds true, they’ll be swimming in similar waters in 2023.

[ESPN’s 2023 FPI Rankings]