Kentucky Football Roundtable: Will the Offense or Defense Reign Supreme in 2023?

In 70 days Kentucky will kick off the 2023 season against Ball State at Kroger Field. An eventful offseason that included the return of Liam Coen and the arrival of Devin Leary has injected energy into the fanbase. But will those new additions make the UK offense the strength of the team, or will the Kentucky defense dominate SEC foes this fall? That question was poised this week by a radio show texter and is now being asked to KSR’s Football crew for a Thursday roundtable discussion.

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Nick Roush

This Kentucky offense has star power at its skill positions, particularly in the passing game. Leary will have the best arsenal of weapons he’s ever thrown to, and not just at wide receiver. Vince Marrow has a deep tight end room that will contribute in a variety of ways under Coen’s watchful eye.

The personnel of this Kentucky offense dictates a different style of football. Kentucky is going to have to throw it more than they’ve ever thrown it in the Mark Stoops era. Even though the Cats’ play-caller has been here before, there will be an adjustment period. I’m not sure you will say the same about UK’s defense.

The middle of Brad White‘s group is loaded with reliable players that are on the verge of developing into stars. Jordan Lovett, Zion Childress and Jalen Geiger are holding down the fort at safety. Trevin Wallace and D’Eryk Jackson have played a lot of high-level football over the years, albeit not always as the primary starters. In front of them Deone Walker is an absolute load, surrounded by players making up one of the biggest defensive lines I’ve ever seen fielded at the University of Kentucky.

There are uncertainties on defense. It’s unclear who will step in at cornerback, but those questions aren’t as consequential as the ones surrounding the Cats’ offensive line. Liam Coen’s offense has a higher ceiling, but the floor of the Kentucky defense leaves fewer doubts, which is why I’m rocking with Brad White’s group.

Pick: Kentucky Defense

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Freddie Maggard

This isn’t a post about college basketball. Predicting efficacy in that sport is mainly based on projection from unproven (at the college level) athletes. Football is just different. Experience counts and in-arena production matters as does having stars on all three levels of play. 

Thus, my preferred projection method is to lean towards the unit with the most proven players with SEC experience. The Kentucky defense checks more of these boxes than the offense in my opinion. Brad White’s unit has more established “Dudes” at all three levels: DL-Deone Walker, LB-Trevin Wallace/D’Eryk Jackson, and JJ Weaver, DB-Zion Childress and Jordan Lovett. The UK defense must go against some serious high-octane offenses in 2023. There is concern at corner. However, I think aforementioned defenders are difference makers with documented production against SEC foes. 

Defending Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi State, and Louisville won’t be easy. The Cats will likely give up a bunch of yards and possibly points against those threatening offenses. I’d prefer to take my chances with these defensive Dudes leading the way.

The offense’s most important position will be manned by an ACC transfer, Devin Leary. The difference between the SEC and the defenses in that league is vast. Leary’s two edge protectors are fellow transfers that formerly played in the MAC and Pac-12, respectively. I’m not saying the duo won’t or can’t get it done, but I have to see it first. So, I’m trusting my eyes and proven production and going with the Kentucky defense. 

Pick: Kentucky Defense

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Adam Luckett

Let’s keep this simple by looking at recent program production. The name of the game is scoring points and keeping teams from scoring points. In the points per drive metric, the Kentucky defense has been much better than the Kentucky offense at completing its top task.

Points Per Drive (Offense)

• 2018: 88 (1.95)
• 2019: 61 (2.30)
• 2020: 92 (1.88)
• 2021: 15 (2.94)
• 2022: 95 (1.74)

Points Per Drive (Defense)

• 2018: 15 (1.52)
• 2019: 34 (1.86)
• 2020: 54 (2.21)
• 2021: 31 (1.88)
• 2022: 28 (1.83)

That’s an average five-year finish of 70.2 for the offense and 32.4 for the defense. Kentucky has an established standard under defensive coordinator Brad White who has played a huge role in each of those seasons for the defense. Meanwhile, the offense has lacked stability.

Mark Stoops just made his third offensive coordinator change in the last five years when Rich Scangarello was fired after just one season with the program and Liam Coen was brought back to run the show. The one outlier for the offense was when Coen was holding the play sheet in a year where UK finished No. 15 in points per drive, No. 5 in success rate (51.1%), No. 21 in yards per play (6.4), and No. 8 in red zone touchdown percentage (72.2%). The data tells us that the ceiling is potentially very high for a Coen offense. But I’m not betting against the known.

Numerous computer metrics are calling for Kentucky to be a top-10 defense this season. The Wildcats have some legit star power highlighted by Deone Walker, good depth in the trenches, and a style of play that will take pressure off the secondary. Even if Coen leads a huge resurgence, it will be difficult to surpass the defense when including data and adjusting for opponent. That says more about what Stoops and White have built on defense than it does about how good of an offensive coordinator Coen is/can be.

Pick: Kentucky Defense