Kentucky football sneaks into ESPN's FPI Top 25 following Week Zero
Kentucky football still has yet to play a regular-season game, but they’re already moving up in one rankings system.
Following Week Zero action over the weekend to open up the 2023 college football season, Kentucky jumped up four spots in ESPN’s updated Football Power Index, moving from preseason No. 28 to just inside the Top 25 at No. 24 heading into the season-opener this Saturday. Kentucky’s first opponent, Ball State, checks in at No. 112 in ESPN’s current FPI. They’ll go head-to-head at noon EST on the SEC Network.
Only two nationally ranked teams — No. 6 Southern California and No. 13 Notre Dame — were in action during Week Zero. A total of seven games were played, with just one SEC program — Vanderbilt, which beat Hawaii 35-28 — taking the field. Even though there wasn’t much action across the country, the advanced stats adjusted accordingly.
Even though Kentucky did not play over the weekend, the FPI still updated their season-long projections. The Wildcats’ anticipated win-loss record has slightly improved from an average projected final record of 7.1-4.9 last week, to 7.2-4.8 this week. Additionally, Kentucky now has an 83.3 percent chance to win at least six games (81.9 percent last week) and a 3.9 percent chance to win the SEC East (3.2 percent last week).
With these new numbers, we can update the game-by-game FPI predictions for Kentucky too. While I’m not entirely sure how ESPN identifies these stats, it’s certainly interesting to see that the Wildcats’ odds to win each game this season improved in eight of the 12 regular season contests despite still having not played a game.
The road matchup against Mississippi State even flipped from a loss to a win. Kentucky is now projected to win nine games based on game-by-game percentages. Tennessee at home is even closer to a coin flip. UK’s full schedule is listed below. Rankings and win percentages come from the FPI.
vs. No. 112 Ball State | 91.6% (W)
vs. N/A Eastern Kentucky | 98.6% (W)
vs. No. 132 Akron | 96.4% (W)
@ No. 81 Vanderbilt | 77.7% (W)
vs. No. 25 Florida | 58.5% (W)
@ No. 3 Georgia | 11.6% (L)
vs. No. 34 Missouri | 63.2% (W)
vs. No. 15 Tennessee | 48.9% (L)
@ No. 31 Mississippi State | 51.4% (W)
vs. No. 2 Alabama | 14.6% (L)
@ No. 33 South Carolina | 51.4% (W)
@ No. 43 Louisville | 55.6% (W)
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