Kentucky Football’s Goals vs. Florida 

The word “streak” was the most frequently utilized word when describing the Kentucky–Florida game for many years. That term has been humanely retired. “Physical” is now the go-to word when describing Saturday’s matchup between the Wildcats and Gators. Mark Stoops, Brad White, Liam Coen, and a plethora of players have indicated that physicality will be an ultra-important aspect of this weekend’s game plan. Florida head coach Billy Napier and his players have said the same.  

Saturday could be an old-fashioned slugfest and a low-scoring affair. Florida and Kentucky are both ranked first or second in several defensive categories. The differing factor in the matchup is the explosive nature of the Wildcat offense compared to the methodical approach by the Gators.  

Florida is 3-1 and has won three straight after taking a loss to Utah in the opener. Napier’s team surprised many by defeating the high-flying Tennessee Volunteers 29-16 in the Swamp in what could be later seen as a season-changing result. Florida’s last outing was a so-so affair against Charlotte. The 49ers held the UF offense to just one touchdown and a bunch of field goals. Let’s get into it.

OFFENSE

The Cats have been a boom-or-bust offense in 2023. Its numbers are strong but have been boosted by explosive plays in the run and pass game. The Cats are averaging 38 points and 397 yards per contest. It also boasts a 49% conversion ratio on third down and a +1 turnover margin. Liam Coen Part II has leaned on the pass more so than the run. UK is throwing for 265 yards and rushing for 132 per game. 

Quarterback Devin Leary has been hot and cold. The signal-caller has put together moments and quarters of elite football. But, he’s also had misses and inaccuracies that have hindered offensive production. Leary’s inconsistency has been a snapshot of the entire unit.  

Dropped passes, inopportune penalties, and focus lapses have also cost the Cats points and drives. Coen and Stoops hope those ineffective happenings are a thing of the past. They need to be with Florida coming to town. The Gators present a serious challenge to the Kentucky offense and are by far the best unit that the Cats have faced in 2023.  

Florida is allowing a mere 245 total yards per outing. This number includes just 82 on the ground and 162 via the pass. 13.5 allowed points per game has been the result. It must be noted that UF has played against Utah and Tennessee as well. So, those numbers provide an accurate gauge. The Gators’ defense plays as a collective, meaning that all three levels have been complimentary to this point in the season. Let’s get into goals for Saturday.

First Down Efficiency

Kentucky had 10 first down plays that resulted in 2^nd and 10+ against Vanderbilt a week ago and still managed 31 offensive points. Florida presents a much more dangerous defensive skill set and scheme. 2^nd and longs against this opponent will likely lead to punts and could place Leary in risky situations in which the Gator pass rush can bring the house. In other words, for the Cats to win, UK must get ahead of the chains on early downs for four quarters. UF is giving up just 32% on third down. Manageable distances will be at a premium.  

The Florida offense leads the SEC in time of possession by averaging over 34 minutes. That’s their game. Possess the football, play great defense, and choke out opponents. This especially applies in the run game. Kentucky is averaging 5.4 yards per carry. UF gives up 83 yards per game, 2.9 per carry. Something’s got to give.

Talk

This isn’t a measurable statistic. But, communication will be key on Saturday, especially up front. The Florida front seven or eight will twist, stunt, shift, blitz, and have fakes from all four that can confuse an offensive line. The UK OL has struggled with movement at times. Can’t happen on Saturday. The Gators have recorded 7 QB sacks and 19 tackles for losses. Those numbers aren’t considered as high volume. If the Cats are to win, the offensive line must play its best game of the season. This is non-negotiable. It all starts with pre-snap recognition and post-snap communication that leads to accurate targets and play execution.

DEFENSE

The Kentucky defense will face a Florida offense that may look familiar to the Big Blue Nation. The Gators’ offensive attack has the appearance of an Eddie Gran-like operation. UF’s intent will be to control the clock, run the football, throw play-action passes, and methodically score points in order to set up its defense. Florida’s 58/42 run-pass ratio is a number that supports this claim.  

Florida features a pair of running backs that both average 12 rushes per game: Travis Etienne and Montrell Johnson. Etienne is the more explosive of the pair. He’s averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Etienne’s 172 yards against Tennessee was notable. Johnson is averaging 5.3 per rush. Both are powerful runners who will test the physicality and tackling of the Kentucky defense. The Gator offensive line was considered a question mark going into the season. The group has shown improvement.  

The visitor’s passing game is mainly a two-man operation. Quarterback Graham Mertz is completing 78% of his passes. He’s playing within Napier’s system and is not asked to be an explosive thrower by completing mostly short passes. His main downfield target is WR Ricky Pearsall. The WR accounts for 30% of all UF catches and is averaging 14 yards per reception.  

Florida’s 27.75 points per game average ranks last in the SEC. Field goals instead of touchdowns in the Red Zone have been a frequent happening. This was the case a week ago against Charlotte when UF scored just one touchdown. Napier’s offense has scored 10 touchdowns out of 18 RZ opportunities in 2023. But, UF’s 34:17 time of possession per game is a number to watch for on Saturday. Let’s get into goals.

Force the Downfield Pass

Mertz is completing 78% of his passes, but the vast majority of his throws have been of the dink and dunk variety. Pearsall is overwhelmingly his top target which makes the Gators somewhat predictable in pass-driven downs.  

How can UK accomplish this goal? Stop the run. That’s the answer. Stop the run. UF’s 58/42 run-pass ratio paints an accurate picture of Napier’s intent which is to run the football. Kentucky ranks first in the SEC against the rush. This number is somewhat misleading. The Cats have yet to face an opponent that features an intentional rushing attack. That changes on Saturday.

Thump

This goal’s description is odd but accurate. Kentucky will need to be physical from the opening quarter to the game’s final buzzer. Tackling will be at a premium. The “Thump” means that linebackers and defensive backs will be called on to make tackles vs. the rush and do so in a tough-guy manner close to the line of scrimmage.  

This game could present high tackling opportunities for Edge JJ Weaver and inside linebackers Trevin Wallace and D’Eryk Jackson. This is also a contest that is perfectly fit for safety Jordan Lovett to register a high number of stops.

SPECIAL TEAMS

These two teams are evenly matched. Turnovers and special teams could possibly decide the outcome. The Cats’ third phase has been a team strength in 2023. That needs to continue vs. the Gators.  

Snap, Hold, Kick

In a projected low-scoring game, field goals could be at a premium. Kentucky cannot be flawed in this operation. It’s been perfect so far, and that must continue. 

Win Field Position Game

The Cats and Gators have the best defenses in the SEC on paper. Driving the length of the field in order to score points will be a difficult proposition. Thus, Saturday will be a field position contest. UK needs to come out as the victor in this category.  

What Does All This Mean?

Can the UK offense continue to explode against a stingy Florida defense? We’ll see. Can the UK defense slow UF’s ground-and-pound offense? We’ll see. The offenses in this game are opposites in terms of intent. The Gators are methodical. The Cats have lived off the big play. The defenses are similar and have both played lights out.  

Saturday’s contest is vital for both teams. UF has already defeated Tennessee and did so in an impressive fashion. Kentucky’s schedule has been extremely friendly to this point. The winner of this SEC East matchup will go into October with significant momentum.  

The Kentucky-Florida game will be won or lost along the line of scrimmage. Physicality will be at a premium which could lead to an old-school slugfest. Additionally, these two don’t like each other very much, and things could get a little chippy on the Kroger Field turf. The Cats will need the BBN to be loud for sixty minutes. The crowd significantly factored in the UK’s most recent victory over the Gators in Lexington.  

For UK to achieve its seasonal goals, it has to beat the Florida Gators. There’s no way around that fact. Things get real this weekend. I’ve asked myself, “Who is this Kentucky team” many times over the past month. We’ll find out come noon on Saturday.