Kentucky Football’s Goals vs. Louisville

This time of the year is all about family, food, and football. For many within or near the 502 area code, Saturday will also lead to wardrobe choices. Some will wear red and black. Others will sport the blue and white. Regardless of your outfit or team logo that you favor, Happy Thanksgiving. I mean that.  

Kentucky and Louisville don’t like each other very much and that’s okay. The somewhat healthy rivalry has been all Cats as of late. In fact, Kentucky has pretty much clubbed the Cards in recent matchups. Saturday could be a little different.  

Mark Stoops’ team enters the Governor’s Cup reeling after dropping four of its last five games and a 6-5 record. Jeff Brohm’s squad is 10-1 and will play for the ACC Championship next weekend and still has a puncher’s chance for the College Football Playoff. Two teams, two differing late-season paths. Both trajectories lead up to the most anticipated in-state showdown of the gridiron year. Let’s get into specific goals.  

OFFENSE 

The Kentucky offense has been a disappointment in 2023. It seemed as if all the pieces were in place for a magical ride. There hasn’t been much magic. Potential needs to turn into execution on Saturday if the Cats are going to put up a fight. We’ve seen it once against Florida. But one out of eleven games doesn’t exactly project confidence.  

The Louisville defense has been a superb bunch and creates a ton of havoc. The Cards are giving up just 18 points and 317 yards per game. Both of those numbers rank second in the ACC. Granted, competition in that league is questionable, but still, strong stats. In most years Kentucky can thump their collective chests about the SEC. Not in 2023. Let’s be honest: the league that Just Means More isn’t as dominant as it has been in the past.  

The Cardinals rank third in the ACC after allowing a mere 29% on third down. This is potentially bad news for a UK offense that has shown a propensity to stumble while attempting to move the chains when it matters. Additionally, UofL allows less than 100 rush yards and 219 through the air. Coen has his work cut out for him on Saturday. The Louisville defense isn’t Georgia or Alabama. But, it’s very good. Let’s get into goals.  

Be a Killer

Relax; I am NOT referencing or inferring a violent crime here. Kentucky has been presented with multiple “Kill Drive” opportunities in which success could have led to at least two more wins. Kill Drives are series in which the offense has the chance to go win a game. Kentucky had a bunch of chances in this situation but failed.  

A classic example was the Cats’ three-and-out possession after jumping up 14-0 advantage vs. Missouri. Others include missed chances to go win the game vs. Tennessee and South Carolina. In all, the Wildcats have failed to consistently display the composure and discipline to effectively execute in critical moments. This team hasn’t shown the killer instinct that the early Stoops’ teams had.  

As seen above, instead of showing a killer instinct and putting opponents out of their misery, the offense often folded when things mattered the most. Penalties, turnovers, errant throws, and drops have been too common in these situations. Even more harmful were wasted downs from first-down vertical shots to Barion Brown which are rarely, if at all, successful and followed by drive-killing 2^nd and 10s.  

There will be times in the Governor’s Cup that will demand a drive, series, or play at a crucial time of the contest. Every possession and play in rivalry games matters.  

Account for and Block Number 9

Ashton Gillotte is a Dude. The defensive end has accumulated 39 tackles, 13 TFLs, and 10 QB sacks. Wildcat blockers and Devin Leary must be aware of their alignment and account for the disruptive defender at all times. Gillotte is a game-wrecker. Respect.  

DEFENSE 

Much like its offensive counterparts, the UK defense has at times failed to rise up in critical moments. Whether not getting stops with a lead against Missouri or other lapses, the defense has also been situationally ineffective. Last Saturday was a perfect example, sort of. After a string of three and outs, the Wildcats gave up a “Kill Drive” to South Carolina. While 17 points should have been enough to win the SEC road game, this has been a pattern. Why? Third downs.  

All five of the Gamecocks’ total first downs occurred on scoring drives. UK ranks twelfth in the SEC in this category. Opponents have converted 43% on the money down. A large portion of chain-moving plays have occurred when the odds were stacked against the offense or 3^rd and 10+ snaps.  

Deone Walker has been great. The defensive tackle has avoided the dreaded sophomore slump. The All-American candidate dominated South Carolina a week ago by posting nine tackles and a bunch of havoc. Walker seems to embrace the rivalry. He definitely has an opinion about the Governor’s Cup opponent. But truthfully, Deone Walker is one of the most impressive and sweetest kids that I’ve met. On the field, not so much.  

Jeff Brohm’s offense is balanced and can be lethal. Unlike Kentucky, Louisville has been situationally excellent. When a “Kill Drive” is on the table, the Cards have executed, capitalized, scored, and won. This is the biggest difference between the two offenses and teams in my opinion.  

UofL is a run-first offense that averages 186 yards per game. Bully ball has been a commonality behind a cohesive offensive line that’s experienced and played a bunch of snaps together.  

Quarterback Jack Plummer throws for 246 yards through the air. He’s tossed 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He’s a game manager which is what his team requires. There could be opportunities for the Cats to create turnovers. Kentucky must pounce on those chances.  

Running back Jawhar Jordan has surpassed the 1,000-yard threshold and has scored 11 touchdowns. Isaac Guerendo’s 585 yards and 8 scores. The RB duo presents a serious and dangerous one-two punch in the backfield. Expect UofL to frequently run those two in a myriad of schemes and angles.  

Jamari Thrash is the Cardinals’ most dangerous pass catcher. He’s recorded 50 receptions for 741 yards and 6 touchdowns. The Cardinals’ pass catchers can explode if given a lane or a crease. This is also concerning. Let’s get into goals.  

Get Off the Field

Kentucky allows a 43% conversion ratio on third down. That’s a bad number and has led to uncomfortable moments in losses. The Cards average 38.5% on the money down. To win, Kentucky has to keep that number less than 35%. Cardinal sustained drives for points could put this one out of reach in a hurry if the UK offense sputters.  

Tackle

With a run scheme much like Missouri’s, Louisville will try to run the football with great frequency and at differing angles along the line of scrimmage. UK’s linebackers need to have their best, most disciplined, and physical outing of the season. There is no other option. Additionally, secondary defenders must clean up their pursuit angles and get ball carriers to the ground.  

This also applies in the passing game. Brohm heavily relies on receiver, RB, and TE yards after catch. A missed stop on the edge of a screen play can quickly turn into six points for the bad guys. It is mandatory for Kentucky to play disciplined, gap integrity defense and efficiently tackle.  

Kentucky’s pass rush hasn’t frequently hurried opposing quarterbacks. While Plummer isn’t Lamar Jackson, he’s sneaky good in the scramble drill. This is an area that the Wildcat defense has struggled. A fear in a rivalry game is for teams to be undisciplined due to emotion. Wildcat defenders can’t give into playing “Hero Ball” and simply do their jobs.  

SPECIAL TEAMS 

Last week proved a couple of old adages to be true when playing on the road: Turnovers and special teams. The third phase wasn’t bad, but three turnovers destroyed Kentucky’s chances of beating a bad Carolina team. Kentucky may have a chance to — no, it needs to — create a special teams explosive in the Derby City. Goals are:  

Score or Produced Turnover

Self-explanatory. These two teams aren’t separated by a talent gap that was evident in a couple of other Top-10 matchups against Georgia and Alabama. Louisville is ranked 10th because they are a disciplined football team that takes advantage of key situations and is extremely well coached. With even talent and on the road, there will need to be an extraordinary play or two for the Cats to be victorious. A third-phase score or turnover could be a great start.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?  

By no means am I intending to take away from Louisville’s 10-1 record, but the Cardinals have benefited from a few breaks. The Cardinals caught another one next week in the ACC Championship after Florida State’s starting quarterback was injured and lost for the remainder of the season.  

But, don’t be fooled into thinking that Louisville’s ranking is unwarranted due to the fact that the Cardinals play in the ACC which is generally, and at times wrongly, considered to be a lesser league. This is a very good football team that’s extremely disciplined and well-coached. Teams don’t reach a 10-1 record by accident.  

Talent is nearly equal between the Cats and Cards. I wouldn’t favor one over the other. The factors that separate the two teams, outside of Kentucky having to take on Alabama and Georgia, are execution and discipline. Louisville has won winnable games; Kentucky has not.  

If seasonal trends hold true, UofL will win the Governor’s Cup. That is not fun to type but is simply reality based on results. I can see a path for a Wildcat win IF they can somehow, and all of a sudden, be situationally sound for sixty minutes. It’s as simple as that.  

The first ten minutes of this game may be critical for Kentucky. A sluggish start could be too much to overcome. If this thing runs deep into the fourth quarter, advantage Cardinals. Brohm has won five one-possession contests. Kentucky is 0-3 in one-possession games against Missouri, Tennessee, and South Carolina. In fact, Kentucky was outscored 32-3 in fourth quarters and failed to score a final-period touchdown against the Tigers, Vols, and Gamecocks. Not good. Thanks to Adam Luckett for those numbers.  

Saturday presents the last opportunity for the Cats to settle down a wobbly, and getting wobblier by the week, fan base and to seize any resemblance of momentum going into the offseason. I don’t have a warm and fuzzy about the bowl game two-deep regardless of Saturday’s outcome. A loss to Louisville would be bad. A 6-6 finish with this roster, preseason expectations, and the manner in which games have been lost would have to be considered another missed opportunity.  

Times have changed in Lexington. Right, wrong, or indifferent; expectations are much higher now than in the past. Kentucky has an opportunity to right a bunch of wrongs by re-writing the season’s narrative by spoiling Louisville’s dream season. Will the Governor’s Cup Trophy be hoisted by the visiting team on Saturday? We’ll see.