Third downs will be critical in Kentucky's matchup with Georgia

Kentucky enters this year’s matchup against Georgia with more on-paper advantages than normal. The Wildcats have the more explosive offense, better tailback, stingier run defense, and more experienced quarterback. For the first time since 2016, it feels like the Big Blue has a legit chance at pulling off an upset.

But when we dig deeper into this upcoming SEC East slugfest, it becomes clear that Georgia has one significant advantage over Kentucky and that’s not related to recruiting. The Bulldogs have been cash on the money downs and Kentucky has not.

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KENTUCKY @ GEORGIA pic.twitter.com/ZtKw0nVUaa

— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 3, 2023

Per Parker Fleming’s data at CFB Graphs, Kentucky third/fourth down efficiency on offense ranks No. 85 and will be going against a top-10 third/fourth down Georgia defense. On the other side, Georgia is No. 9 third/fourth down efficiency. The Bulldogs will be facing a Kentucky defense that ranks No. 86 on money downs.

If Georgia controls this matchup, what happens on third/fourth down could tell us why. The Bulldogs are clearly the more efficient team in this divisional game. That means the home team we’ll create third-and-short situations on offense and third-and-long situations on defense. Kentucky will likely find itself in many unfortunate situations on third down.

Kentucky must find a way to get some wins on third down on both sides of the ball. If UGA is able to dominate in this part of situational football, it will create long drives on offense and keep Kentucky’s explosive offense on the sideline. The Wildcats cannot score — most likely — if the offense is on the bench.

Third down efficiency could tell us the story of the game on Saturday night.