What the computers are saying about Kentucky's next three games

Believe it or not, we’re halfway through this Kentucky Basketball season. The Cats have fared well so far, only losing three of 16 games, one in SEC play. With just under two months until Selection Sunday, the road is about to get tougher. All but one of Kentucky’s remaining opponents (Vanderbilt) rank in the Top 100 of the KenPom ratings. Things really heat up in two weeks when Tennessee comes to town, but the next week could be tricky, with a home game vs. a surprisingly good Georgia team and back-to-back road games vs. South Carolina and Arkansas.

We’ll have plenty to say about each opponent and matchup as the days go on, but what are the computer models predicting? Here’s where Kentucky stands in all of them following the 13-point win over Mississippi State on Wednesday night.

• Record: 13-3 (3-1 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: 8/10
• NET: 17
• KenPom: 17
• BartTorvik: 19
• BPI: 19

Let’s see what KenPom, BartTorvik, and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) are saying about the next three games.

Georgia Bulldogs

Sat., Jan. 20, 6:00 p.m. ET, Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), SEC Network

• Record: 13-4 (3-1 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: NR/NR
• NET: 79 (Quad 3)
• KenPom: 69
• BartTorvik: 70
• BPI: 75

Coming into this season, this game looked like one of the easiest on Kentucky’s SEC schedule; since it’s at home, it still might be, but the Bulldogs have overachieved so far this season. Mike White’s Bulldogs are 13-4 and tied with Kentucky for second in the SEC standings at 3-1. The Bulldogs’ lone league loss was to then-No. 5 Tennessee, and they led the Vols by eight with five minutes to go. Georgia has yet to lose a true road game, which is why John Calipari is calling on the Rupp Arena crowd to bring it tomorrow night.

That said, the computers still forecast a double-digit Kentucky victory.

KenPom: Kentucky 85, Georgia 75
BartTorvik: Kentucky 87, Georgia 76
BPI: Kentucky -12.2

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South Carolina Gamecocks

Tue., Jan. 23, 7 p.m. ET, Colonial Life Arena (Columbia, SC), SEC Network

• Record: 14-3 (2-2 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: RV/NR
• NET: 71 (Quad 1)
• KenPom: 73
• BartTorvik: 71
• BPI: 89

South Carolina is another SEC team that has exceeded expectations thus far. The Gamecocks beat the Cats at Rupp Arena last year but finished the season with an 11-21 record, 4-14 in SEC play (which tells you something about last year’s Kentucky squad). In Lamont Paris’ second season, the Gamecocks have already topped last year’s win total, with 14 wins. They’re 2-2 in SEC play, beating Mississippi State and Missouri and losing at Alabama by 27 and to Georgia at home on Tuesday.

To me, the jury is still out on how good the Gamecocks are. Before hosting the Cats, South Carolina travels to Arkansas, which just snapped a three-game losing streak with a one-point win over Texas A&M. In terms of NCAA Tournament resume, this one would be big, as it is currently considered a Quad 1 game. Right now, the computers foresee a close Kentucky victory in Columbia.

KenPom: Kentucky 79, South Carolina 75
BartTorvik: Kentucky 78, South Carolina 76
BPI: Kentucky -4.6

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Arkansas Razorbacks

Sat., Jan. 27, 6 p.m. ET, Bud Walton Arena (Fayetteville, AR), ESPN

• Record: 10-7 (1-3 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: NR/NR
• NET: 107 (Quad 2)
• KenPom: 89
• BartTorvik: 106
• BPI: 98

If Georgia and South Carolina have exceeded expectations thus far, Arkansas has come up way short. The Razorbacks were a preseason Top 15 squad but Eric Musselman’s new group of transfers has been wildly inconsistent outside of Tramon Marks. It looked like the wheels were really coming off when Arkansas lost its first three SEC games, but the Razorbacks snapped that streak by beating Texas A&M by one on Tuesday.

Arkansas hosts South Carolina and travels to Ole Miss before hosting Kentucky a week from tomorrow. Although the Razorbacks struggled this season, you know Bud Walton will be rocking and Eric Musselman will have his team fired up. For that reason, the computers keep the Razorbacks within striking distance in their projections.

KenPom: Kentucky 86, Arkansas 80
BartTorvik: Kentucky 87, Arkansas 81
BPI: Kentucky -5.5

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