Kentucky as a Heavy Underdog? No Problem.

Kentucky might face a very unique situation Friday in Tuscaloosa. The Cats might be a double-digit underdog against Bama. And typically, that would mean the Cats are facing long odds of winning the game. But historically speaking, Kentucky isn’t as big of an underdog as you think.

Obviously, for as good as the program was under John Calipari and in Mark Pope’s first season, there haven’t been too many big underdog games. In fact, in the last 16 seasons, Kentucky has only been a 10-point or more underdog in four games.

Those results:

2025: at Tennessee (10.5-point underdog)

Result: Kentucky 78, Tennessee 73
This one obviously is fresh on the minds of Kentucky fans as it happened just three weeks ago. The Cats were facing injuries, what appeared to be a bad matchup with Tennessee, and off two losses, including a bad loss to Vanderbilt. But Kentucky actually controlled the majority of the 2nd half and Koby Brea had one of his best games as a Cat.

2023: at Tennessee (11-point underdog)

Result: Kentucky 63, Tennessee 56
This game mirrored the one from this season in several ways. Kentucky was coming off two losses, including that disaster loss to South Carolina in Rupp, but the Cats’ defense absolutely stifled the Tennessee offense and largely controlled the game. UK was +20 on the boards and this win made many feel the Cats had righted the ship. (They had not.)

2018: at West Virginia (10.5-point underdog)

Result: Kentucky 83, West Virginia 76
The Kevin Knox game. 34 points. 7 rebounds. 5-8 from three. This was the player that Kentucky fans thought they would get all that season but had only shown flashes. Even with this performance, UK was down 15 at the half in Morgantown. But the Cats dominated on the glass and Knox was the best player on the floor the last 20 minutes as the Cats pulled away late. One of Cal’s teams’ best, and most unexpected, performances.

2013: at Florida (10-point underdog)

Result: Florida 69, Kentucky 52
The only time Kentucky hasn’t won outright as a double-digit dog. But this game will forever be known as the Nerlens Noel injury game. The all-star big man for the Cats suffered his knee injury late in a blowout loss and that season was toast from there.

The Cats are playing with house money tomorrow. A loss likely means very little in the grand scheme of things. But the idea that the Cats have little to no shot is absurd, even with the depleted roster.

Multiple Kentucky teams, under multiple Kentucky coaches, have met the challenge of pulling off some of the biggest surprises in school history. I think the Cats are very good picks to cover and if I was the gambling type, I think the moneyline might be a good play tomorrow. Kentucky teams pull off these upsets. This team has already done it once. Let’s see it again against a struggling Bama tomorrow!