Betting Trends: Illinois is in tricky spot against Kentucky despite line movement

Illinois is a No. 6 seed with 12 losses but that is not stopping some from believing in the Fighting Illini. Shortly after Kentucky opened as a small favorite, the line quickly shifted. The Illini are currently a 1.5-point favorite. Kentucky is the only higher seed in the Round of 32 to be a underdog.

But this situation has not worked at well for the lower-seeded favorite.

Six-seed Illinois is a 1.5-point favorite over three-seed Kentucky Sunday. Its the 12th time a six-seed has been favored over a three-seed. Only four of the previous 11 have gone on to win the game (or cover).

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) March 22, 2025

No. 6 seeds are 4-7 outright record a No. 3 seeds when laying points. That could be a good development for a Kentucky squad that has recorded six outright upsets wins against five teams in the NCAA Tournament field.

According to the Action Network, the fade line movement principle has been a good one in the NCAA Tournament betting markets. When there is an immediate spread change making the other team a favorite, the favorite to dog is 26-9 against-the-spread (ATS). That is a 74 percent cover rate.

Is Kentucky a live dog in Milwaukee?

As a favorite of five points or less, Illinois is 3-3 ATS this season with outright losses to Northwestern and Nebraska. Neither of those teams made the Big Dance. As a dog of five points or less, Kentucky is 3-1 ATS with two outright upsets against Mississippi State and Tennessee. Both of those teams made the tournament. The total in this contest opened at 170.5. That is the fourth-highest in NCAA Tournament history. Kentucky is 6-10 ATS in games with a total north of 160. Illinois is 6-2 ATS in games with a total north of 160.

There are some conflicting trends. We could be in for a thriller in the Round of 32.

(3) Kentucky vs. (6) Illinois: How to Watch, Listen

• Date, Time: Sunday, March 23, 5:15 ET
• Television: CBS (Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy, Lauren Shehadi)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: The Varsity App
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 210 or 203

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.