What the computers are saying about Kentucky's next three games

Kentucky has one more non-conference game before starting SEC play. On Friday, the Cats host Illinois State in what is essentially the Antonio Reeves Classic. After playing Reeves’ former school, Kentucky heads to Gainesville, Florida for its first SEC game on January 6. Three days later, the Cats host the Missouri Tigers, who beat them in Columbia last season.

We’ll have plenty to say about each opponent and matchup as the days go on, but what are the computer models predicting? Here’s where Kentucky stands in all of them following the 19-point win over Louisville last week.

• Record: 9-2
• AP/Coaches Poll: 8/10
• NET: 27
• KenPom: 19
• BartTorvik: 19

Let’s see what KenPom and BartTorvik are saying about the next three games.

Illinois State Redbirds

Fri., Dec. 29, 7:00 p.m. ET, Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), SEC Network

• Record: 8-4 (2-0 MVC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: NR/NR
• NET: 190
• KenPom: 194
• BartTorvik: 219

The Redbirds from the Missouri Valley Conference bring an 8-4 record to Rupp Arena on Friday. Two of those losses, to High Point and Wright State, came in the Gulf Coast Showcase the week before Thanksgiving. Their best player is senior guard Darius Burford, who averages 13.7 points per game. He’s scored 50 points combined in the last two games.

I could go on, but Illinois State is not good (the second-weakest team left on the schedule behind Vanderbilt) and Kentucky should not have an issue against them Friday night at Rupp; however, we thought the same thing about UNC Wilmington, so the Cats need to get out of Christmas mode quickly.

KenPom: Kentucky 84, Illinois State 64 (96% chance of victory)
BartTorvik: Kentucky 85, Illinois State 64 (96% chance of victory)

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Florida Gators

Sat., Jan. 6, 12:30 p.m. ET, Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O’Connell Center (Gainesville, FL), ESPN

• Record: 9-3
• AP/Coaches Poll: NR/NR
• NET: 46
• KenPom: 33
• BartTorvik: 33

Florida has three losses thus far in Todd Golden’s second season as head coach. The Gators lost to Virginia in the Hall of Fame Series in Charlotte back on Nov. 10, to then-No. 13 Baylor in the Novavax NIT Season Tip-Off the day after Thanksgiving, and at Wake Forest the week after. Their best wins are over Pittsburgh and Michigan, the latter a double-overtime victory in the Jumpman Invitational last week.

Florida has five players averaging in double figures scoring, led by junior guard Walter Clayton Jr. (15.4 PPG), who transferred from Iona. Senior forward Tyrese Samuel, who transferred from Seton Hall, is second on the team in scoring with 14.6 PPG and has an SEC-best 64.8 field-goal percentage. He’s also second in the league in rebounds per game, averaging 8.8 boards per outing.

Both computer models have Kentucky losing this game. As Drew shared with you earlier, the O-Dome is sold out and Florida will be wearing special orange jerseys for the occasion, so Kentucky’s young core will need to keep its composure to avoid starting SEC play on the wrong foot.

KenPom: Florida 86, Kentucky 85 (49% chance of victory)
BartTorvik: Florida 87, Kentucky 85 (42% chance of victory)

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Missouri Tigers

Tues., Jan. 9, 7:00 p.m. ET, Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), ESPN

• Record: 7-5
• AP/Coaches Poll: NR/NR
• NET: 106
• KenPom: 92
• BartTorvik: 107

Dennis Gates beat Kentucky in his first try as Missouri’s head coach last season, but the Tigers are riding a bit of a skid, losing their last three games (at No. 2 Kansas, vs. Seton Hall, vs. No. 11 Illinois). The 24-point loss to the Fighting Illini in the annual Braggin’ Rights rivalry game was especially bad, as the Tigers made only 6-27 (22.2%) of their threes, were outrebounded 51-35, and totaled only six assists.

The Tigers aren’t as bad as they looked vs. Illinois. They played well at Kansas, jumping out to an early lead in The Phog and keeping it close in the second half before the No. 2 Jayhawks pulled away for the seven-point win. Senior guard Sean East II, a Louisville native, leads the Tigers with 17.2 points per game, which ranks fifth in the SEC. Gates showed last season he’s clearly not intimidated by John Calipari or Kentucky. That said, both computer models like the Cats by double-digits at home.

KenPom: Kentucky 86, Missouri 73 (87% chance of victory)
BartTorvik: Kentucky 87, Missouri 73 (88.8% chance of victory)

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