Bracket Thoughts: Diving into race between Kentucky, Kansas

Just two weekends remain in the college basketball regular season as March Madness gets closer by the day. In the meantime, all of us are trying to figure out how seeding will shake out when Selection Sunday arrives on March 13.

After the selection committee revealed their top 16 teams last Saturday, we all have a better idea about what to look for. It seems clear that this year the selection group is putting a high value on big wins and worrying less about bad losses. That gives us a good idea about where Kentucky might land.

Currently, most of the focus has been on the Wildcats and Kansas. Despite owning a dominant head-to-head win over the Jayhawks, Kentucky finds itself seeded behind Bill Self’s squad.

In this week’s edition on Bracket Thoughts, we’re going to dive into the resumes of Kansas and Kentucky and explain why the Wildcats may be chasing other teams. Also, we’ll give you a current top-16 and a picture of how the bubble sits with minimal games remaining.

College basketball is heating as the best postseason in sports quickly approaches.

Strength of schedule is letting Kentucky down

After opening the season with a loss to Duke in the Champions Classic, Kentucky hosted seven straight games at Rupp Arena. For a month, the Wildcats did not play a team that ranked inside the top-100 of KenPom.

The schedule strengthened in December, but the Wildcats ended up with a No. 108 non-conference strength of schedule thanks to that soft home slate combined with a Louisville cancellation and losing a game with Ohio State on a neutral floor.

While that was going on, Kansas played some stiffer competition.

After a win over Michigan State in that same Champions Classic, the Jayhawks faced three more top-100 KenPom teams in November. Kansas currently has a No. 63 ranked non-conference strength of schedule and that has helped create enough cushion between Kentucky despite having an ugly loss at home against the Wildcats.

Kansas is currently 10-4 in Quadrant 1 games with two top-10 wins. The Jayhawks have 12 top-50 wins on the season are 3-3 in Quadrant 1A games (1-15 at home, 1-25 neutral, 1-40 road). Meanwhile, Kentucky is 7-5 in Quadrant 1 games with two top-10 wins. However, the Wildcats have just seven top-50 wins and are 3-4 in Quadrant 1A games.

Overall, Kansas owns a No. 10 in strength of schedule with a No. 1 strength of record. Kentucky owns a No. 26 strength of schedule with a No. 6 strength of record. All that combines to give Kansas a slight edge at the moment.

Following another win this week, an argument could be made that Kansas leaped Arizona for the No. 2 overall spot and the Wildcats are really eyeing them and Auburn for a No. 1 seed entering the second to last weekend of the regular season.

New top 16

Less than one week after seeing the committee’s top-16, we’re going to take another swing on where we think things stand heading into the games on Feb. 24. Let’s dive in.

1. Gonzaga (West)
2. Kansas (Midwest)
3. Arizona (South)
4. Auburn (East)
5. Kentucky (Midwest)
6. Purdue (East)
7. Texas Tech (South)
8. Baylor (West)
9. Duke (East)
10. Wisconsin (Midwest)
11. Villanova (South)
12. Providence (West)
13. Illinois (East)
14. UCLA (Midwest)
15. Tennessee (South)
16. Arkansas (West)

The SEC shows out with four teams in the top-16 as all signs seem to point to a Kansas-Kentucky showdown in Chicago. Meanwhile, Providence keeps winning games, and the Friars are one game away from claiming the program’s first-ever Big East title. Ed Cooley’s team has now climbed up on the No. 3 line.

An SEC Tournament win over Auburn could go a long way for Kentucky as the Wildcats are in a position to grab a No. 1 seed as the year comes to a close.

Bubble watch

After diving into the numbers this week, I feel confident it saying that this is a weak bubble. However, that claim is likely made every year. Having big wins should go a long way.

Due to this, Florida is currently in the projected field of 68 thanks to a home win over Auburn and a neutral floor victory over Ohio State. Rutgers is still in despite some very bad losses Meanwhile, solid teams like Belmont and VCU were left out thanks to no strong victories on the resume. San Francisco has had a great year, but Todd Golden’s team is walking on thin ice with zero Quad 1A wins and a bad Quad 4 loss. Don’t sleep on Memphis if Penny Hardaway’s club can get some big wins to close the year.

Last Four Byes: Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Indiana, North Carolina

Last Four In: Florida, San Francisco, Miami, Rutgers

First Four Out: Memphis, Kansas State, Belmont, VCU

Next Four Out: SMU, Oregon, BYU, Saint Louis