Kentucky vs. Louisville is the first "Must Win" Game of the Mark Pope Era

The Kentucky vs. Louisville rivalry starts a new chapter tomorrow. And I am sure there is some kind of sicko out there in the UK fanbase that still isn’t on board with Mark Pope but you have to think his approval rating is as close to 100% as you can get. He’s checked all of the boxes that had become unchecked at the end of the John Calipari era: Kentucky is winning big regular season games; tremendous in-game coaching; connection with the fans; handling lower-tier opponents with ease and exerting dominance at Rupp Arena. It’s been all good so far for Mark Pope.

But I think he faces a new challenge tomorrow against Louisville. I think for the first time in his tenure he faces a MUST-WIN game. There is no sugarcoating what tomorrow’s game means. Put plainly, Kentucky cannot lose. It just can’t or the first crack of the Pope tenure might appear.

KENTUCKY IS JUST BETTER

First and foremost, Kentucky is favored in the game. I haven’t seen a spread yet but I would imagine it will be in the 6-10 point range. And you just cannot lose a game at home to your chief rival when you are that much of a favorite. At this point, Pope has upset two opponents, lost a toss-up game to a similar-level team, and dominated the rest of the teams. Part of the frustration with Calipari in his last few years was losing games that Kentucky had no business losing, whether in the NCAA Tournament or not. Tomorrow against Louisville is a game that Kentucky has no business losing.

Not only is Kentucky more talented and at home, Louisville comes in very short-handed. They lost two regular rotation players, including their best big man, to injury. They are a team almost entirely dependent on hitting the jump shot. If their shots are not falling, they don’t have much of a second option. There is nothing to suggest UofL has any obvious advantage over the Cats unless Lamont Butler doesn’t play. But either way, this is an inferior opponent in 2024.

BATTLE OF 1ST-YEAR COACHES

This rivalry was defined by John Calipari vs. Rick Pitino for so long and Cal held the advantage most of the time. But since Pitino’s departure the rotating door of UofL coaches has left that aspect of the rivalry void. Now, for the first time ever (I think), both teams come into the game with 1st-year head coaches. Frankly, if you are Mark Pope, you have to take the early advantage over Pat Kelsey. You can’t let him come into your building in Year 1 and get a win over a top-five team. Tubby Smith suffered this defeat in his first year, albeit against Denny Crum, and that loss hung over that team for a very long time until Kentucky went on to win the national title.

Who knows, but these two coaches could define the rivalry for the next decade. It is imperative that Mark Pope starts off 1-0 against Kelsey.

RUPP ARENA DOMINANCE

Rupp Arena had lost some of its luster over the last four seasons. Kentucky had lost 14 games in the past four seasons at home. Home crowds had grown very anxious when a big opponent came to town. Home crowds weren’t quite as rowdy as they used to be. Mark Pope is certainly out to change that. His team is 7-0 so far at Rupp Arena with an average margin of victory of 29.5. Dominance is back at Rupp Arena so far, although Louisville will certainly be the best opponent Kentucky has hosted.

Pope has to get our home court back to a place that exudes fear in opponents. It has to be a place where 95% of opponents lose the game before it ever tips off. Where the home court is worth 8-10 points. Those early Calipari teams would thrive in big games at Rupp. Crowds were hyped from the tip and often UK would get ahead quickly and keep its foot on the pedal. That is my hope tomorrow. I want to see Kentucky up by 10 at some point in the first half. The crowd on their feet and staying there the whole time. I want the 2009-2019 Rupp Arena back.

MUST-WIN RIVALRY GAME

I’m not super nervous about the outcome of the game tomorrow. I think Louisville is struggling right now to figure themselves out after injuries. Kentucky seems more poised and deeper for sure. But I think tomorrow’s game is about more than just the win. It sets the tone for this rivalry for the next 10 years. It sets the tone for his rivalry with Pat Kelsey. And it has the chance to insert Rupp Arena back into the fold as one of the toughest places to play in the country.

I think there is no circumstance where it will be okay for Kentucky to lose this game. And that will provide a new challenge for Pope’s program. Will they meet that challenge?