KSR Staff Predictions: No. 17 Kentucky vs. LSU on Senior Night

The final home game of the first season of the Mark Pope era is here and it’s a significant one. LSU comes to Rupp Arena with a 14-15 record, just 3-13 in SEC play. Kentucky is a double-digit favorite, but can’t afford to overlook the Tigers on Senior Night for a variety of reasons.

The Cats need to win for SEC and NCAA Tournament seeding purposes. Coming off the lopsided loss to No. 1 Auburn, tonight is also important for morale. A big, comfortable win would help everyone rally for the home stretch. As we’ve seen on multiple occasions, that’s easier said than done in the SEC this season.

Will Kentucky take care of business on Senior Night? How will former Wildcat Daimion Collins perform in his return to Rupp Arena? The KSR crew is ready to weigh in.

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Adam Luckett

Senior Night has arrived at Rupp Arena with Kentucky looking for a much-needed win. The Cats sit at .500 in SEC play with two games to go but draw one of the worst teams in the conference in the final home game of the season.

Matt McMahon’s team is playing better basketball recently but their only league wins have occurred against Arkansas, Oklahoma, and South Carolina. Those three teams are a combined 12-36 in SEC play. The Tigers do not play with a lot of pace, shoot less than 30 percent from three in SEC action, foul a ton, and are bad on the glass.

The Tigers have the size and athleticism combo to give Kentucky some issues, but this should still be a game where the Cats get to 80-plus points without sweating too much. LSU cannot get there unless they go crazy from three. Kentucky’s perimeter defense should tighten the screws after allowing Alabama, Oklahoma, and Auburn to hit a combined 33 three-point field goals over the last three games. UK’s stingy three-point defense returns on Tuesday.

That leads to a double-digit win.

Score: Kentucky 81, LSU 67

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Zack Geoghegan

LSU hasn’t scored more than 69 points in any of its three previous games, all losses by six or more points. The Tigers also shot under 30 percent from deep in those three defeats. McMahon won’t be bringing a hot team into Rupp Arena tonight, but they’ll still shoot a ton of shots from deep in this one. This is a group that ranks 15th in offense and 14th in defense among SEC teams through conference play.

If Kentucky wants the SEC Tournament single-bye, then this is a must-win. Even without Jaxson Robinson, the ‘Cats shouldn’t have much issue pulling out a stress-free win down the stretch. KenPom calls for a 14-point UK victory. If the defense can keep Camryn Carter (16.9 PPG in SEC) in check, LSU stands little chance. Although I wouldn’t be mad to see a solid (not great, but solid!) game from former ‘Cat Daimion Collins.

Score: Kentucky 85, LSU 75

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Jack Pilgrim

I’ll admit, I had too much dip on my chip picking wins over Alabama and Auburn the past two weekends. It’s this team’s ability to overcome the odds that keeps me believing whether reality aligns with the logic or not. Was I wrong? Definitely. Will I apologize for rolling with the Cats? Absolutely not — just wait until you see my March Madness picks.

This one is different, obviously, with Kentucky opening as a 12.5-point favorite against the second-worst team in the SEC, one with a single Quad 1 win on the year. Is it weird that scenario almost scares me more than the what-do-you-have-to-lose matchups in this league? LSU isn’t very good and they’re banged up, but still scrappy and Cam Carter is a fun talent capable of giving the Wildcats fits. Daimion Collins is playing the best basketball of his career, too, which is always a good thing for a kid who has dealt with more in his life than one should at this age.

Everything changed with the ass-whooping belt celebration for Auburn on Saturday, though. Whether they’re willing to admit it publicly or not, I think that put a pretty massive chip on this team’s shoulders to wrap up the regular season and entering postseason play. That’s problematic for LSU as the first potential victim after the Wildcats were embarrassed and disrespected on their home floor. You’ll get the best version of Kentucky this evening for that reason as the shots fall en route to a comfortable double-digit win.

Score: Kentucky 87, LSU 71

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Tyler Thompson

Kentucky desperately needs to get back in the win column, and LSU provides the perfect opportunity. The Tigers are struggling this year, just 3-13 in conference play, and could be shorthanded tonight due to injuries. The Cats have been burned in this scenario before, but in their final game at Rupp, I think they’ll take care of business.

LSU showed some life after switching to a small-ball lineup, beating Oklahoma on the road and beating South Carolina at home. However, the Tigers have reverted to the mean since, losing the last three games (Florida, Tennessee, at Mississippi State). As the others have said, LSU is not good offensively, but they’ll go down shooting in hopes of pulling off an upset. Fortunately, I think Kentucky will be eager to prove itself after Saturday’s lopsided loss to Auburn.

This is a get-right game and even with the emotions of Senior Night, I think the Cats will get right, with the offense finding its footing from the outside in. Kentucky should win convincingly, but former Cat Daimion Collins will get a dunk or two in his return to Rupp due to his length and athleticism inside.

Score: Kentucky 86, LSU 71

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Jacob Polacheck

LSU will be shorthanded against Kentucky, missing Jalen Reed and likely Vyctorius Miller and Corey Chest. Even without Jaxson Robinson and Kerr Kriisa, Kentucky should be able to keep this game high-scoring enough to put it out of reach for LSU.

The Tigers have had enough trouble scoring at a high clip in SEC play and will have to ramp it up further to keep up with the nation’s No. 6 scoring offense. If Kentucky can slow down Cam Carter, then it should be an easy road for the Cats.

Carter will need to have a high-scoring game, while getting contributions from players like Rob Miller and Daimion Collins. Kentucky will look to take advantage of LSU’s struggles at taking care of the ball and rebounding.

Score: Kentucky 85, LSU 74

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Drew Franklin

LSU recently changed up its playing style, going to a four-guard lineup to improve scoring. While the move worked for more points, it opened up a new weakness: rebounding.

Tonight, on their Senior Night, Amari Williams and Andrew Carr should dominate the paint, playing against former Wildcat Daimion Collins inside. The second-chance points that many teams have gotten against Kentucky won’t be there, and LSU’s offense isn’t good enough to create on its own in the halfcourt, even against Kentucky’s defense.

This should be a smooth night for the Cats, as long as Cam Carter (16.9 ppg) doesn’t do anything crazy. Keep him from having an unconscious performance like Auburn’s Miles Kelly, and Kentucky will close the doors on Rupp Area for the season with a win.

Score: Kentucky 88, LSU 73

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Nick Roush

Brandon Ramsey has curated a detailed Scouting Report on KSR+. Nick Roush’s Scouting Report is much more succinct. Don’t let Cam Carter get hot.

Carter had 23 points against LSU. He scored 29 in an improbable win at Oklahoma, including seven in the final 30 seconds. He also put up 24 points against top-ranked Auburn. Carter has 11 20+ point games this season.

There’s enough in the tank for Carter to go nuclear and play Senior Night spoiler. Kentucky has to make the other Tigers beat them. One of the worst three-point shooting teams in the SEC, the Wildcats will overpower LSU in the paint and secure a nice and easy victory, so long as they keep Carter under control.

Score: Kentucky 85, LSU 69

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Kentucky vs. LSU: How to Watch, Listen

• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• Television: ESPN2 (Brian Custer, Daymeon Fishback)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 106 or 190
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.