What we know heading into Kentucky vs. Mississippi State

They remember what you do in November. In the sport of college football, what happens over the last four weeks of the regular season will form the offseason storyline that will go on for nine months. For both Kentucky and Mississippi State, each will be looking to re-write the narrative.

Both teams enter Week 10 desperate for a win. The hot seat could get very warm for first-year head coach Zach Arnett if State’s 13-year bowl streak comes to an end. For Kentucky, a promising 5-0 start could be going down the drain if the Wildcats lose a fourth consecutive game for the first time since 2015.

This is a big moment for both teams. Before toe meets leather at Davis-Wade Stadium, let’s take one quick look back to see what we learned this week before Kentucky and Mississippi State meet for the 51st time on the gridiron.

Mike Wright Show

What was assumed all week became true on Saturday morning. The Action Network’s Brett McMurphy reported on X that Mississippi State will be without starting quarterback Will Rogers for the third game in a row.

Mississippi State will be w/out starting QB Will Rogers & star RB Woody Marks today vs. Kentucky, source told @ActionNetworkHQ. Mike Wright will start at QB for the Bulldogs, who have been decimated by injuries this year. Rogers is missing his 3rd straight game, Marks his 2nd.…

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) November 4, 2023

Vanderbilt transfer Mike Wright will make his third consecutive start for the Bulldogs. In eight quarters against Arkansas and Auburn, the Bulldogs only mustered two offensive touchdowns and a paltry 4.8 yards per play on 115 snaps. Wright is a limited passer (58.2% completion percentage, 33.9% success rate) but he adds an added element in the run game.

In an upset win over Kentucky last season, Wright and Ray Davis ran wild as the Commodores rolled up a season-high 264 rushing yards in the 24-21 win. Expect a similar game plan from Mississippi State offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay despite the Bulldogs also being without leading rushers Jo’Quavious Marks.

Wright is one of the least effective starting quarterbacks in the SEC, but he has had success against Kentucky. The Wildcats must contain the dual-threat quarterback better in 2023 to leave Davis-Wade Stadium victorious.

Great matchup for Kentucky’s passing game

To say that the Kentucky offense was laboring in the passing game would be an understatement. The film and the numbers were ugly for Liam Coen‘s throw game through the first four SEC games, but the Wildcats appeared to have found some solutions in the bye week.

Against Tennessee, we saw Kentucky go to some empty formations and sprinkle in some tempo. That led to Devin Leary throwing for 372 yards against what had been a good defense. Now the Wildcats will see if that passing game can travel.

Opponents are posting big numbers throwing the football against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs rank dead last in college football in completion percentage allowed (72.9%). Zach Arnett’s team has a major passing defense problem.

As long as Kentucky can handle a good Mississippi State pass rush, we should see another big game from Leary against a defense that is struggling to cover.

Different spot for Kentucky in Starkville

Davis-Wade Stadium has been a house of horrors for Kentucky football under Mark Stoops. That has been well established. Despite facing three head coaches in five separate trips to Starkville, UK is 0-5 in this series on the road under Stoops with four consecutive road losses.

But this is a different situation.

For the first time since this long road losing streak started after Kentucky’s 14-13 win in 2008, the Wildcats will be laying points in the matchup. As of Saturday morning, the spread has creeped up to 4.5. This is a spot that Mississippi State has not faired well in.

Since 2019, the Bulldogs are 1-8 against the spread as a home underdog. Multiple trends are pointing towards Kentucky entering the Week 10 contest.