KSR Staff Predictions: No. 19 Kentucky at No. 15 Missouri

The final game of the regular season is here. On Saturday, No. 19 Kentucky will take on No. 15 Missouri in Columbia, Mark Pope’s Cats’ first clash with Dennis Gates’ Tigers this season.

Missouri is 21-9, coming off a 12-point loss at Oklahoma, the Tigers’ third in the last four games. The Tigers have been very good at home (18-1), but very bad on the road (3-7). Like Kentucky, they’ve got a great offense and struggle on defense, allowing 90.8 points per game over the last five games. This game has big SEC Tournament implications; win and Kentucky could be the Nos. 5, 6, or 7 seed in Nashville. Lose and the Cats will be locked into the No. 8 seed.

Who will win the high-stakes shootout (that, appropriately, tips off at noon)? The KSR crew is ready to weigh in.

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Tyler Thompson

I had this game penciled in as a loss for most of the season, but after watching the Cats dominate LSU on Tuesday, I feel better about it. Obviously, the Missouri Tigers are much better than the LSU Tigers, but it was good to see the Cats play in sync again and push the pace, coming close to Mark Pope’s goal of 35 three-point attempts. Mizzou plays a very similar style, so I think we’re in for a fun afternoon.

After losing three of their last four, I’m sure the Tigers will be ready to bounce back on Senior Day. I’m looking forward to seeing how the Cats respond. Koby Brea hasn’t been great on the road, but I have a feeling he’ll get hot in this one to give Kentucky the edge to build some momentum heading into the postseason.

Score: Kentucky 89, Missouri 86

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Zack Geoghegan

Kentucky’s recent defensive improvement will be put to the test against a highly-efficient Missouri offense. The Wildcats have been much better at defending (and preventing) three-pointers and causing more turnovers the last eight games, but Missouri shoots the ball well from deep (37.3 percent) and is among the best in the SEC at not coughing away possessions (just 10.7 turnovers per game). Kentucky’s defense needs to come out on top in at least one of those two categories.

Missouri is sliding at the worst possible time. The last four games — three of them losses — have come against teams outside of KenPom’s Top 35. The lone win was against South Carolina (71st). Two-point defense has been a massive issue. The Tigers will still likely find a way to score 80-plus, but can Dennis Gates find a way to slow down Mark Pope’s offense? The last couple of weeks would suggest the answer is no. Kentucky wins a high-scoring thriller with big games from Andrew Carr and Amari Williams.

Score: Kentucky 91, Missouri 87

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Jack Pilgrim

This is a massive game for Kentucky, a win likely securing a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament while also opening the door to a No. 5, 6 or 7 seed in Nashville beyond the No. 8 and single bye already locked in. You’re catching Missouri at a solid (albeit desperate) time coming off losses in three of four and back-to-back at Vanderbilt and Oklahoma while the Wildcats are now familiar with their personnel in the post-Jaxson Robinson era this season, everyone else back to full strength after coming out of the LSU win healthy.

The Tigers rank No. 7 nationally in scoring with top-40 hit rates from the field (No. 16), effective shooting (No. 12) and from three (No. 36) while also living at the line — No. 2 in makes, No. 3 in attempts.

Can Kentucky continue its trend of defensive growth post-Ole Miss? Mark Pope thanked the basketball gods this week his team jumped back into the 50s in defensive efficiency, now No. 56 nationally after falling to No. 112 on Feb. 5. Lamont Butler leads the way there, slowing down Caleb Grill (14.4 PPG, 42.6 3P%) and Tamar Bates (13.1 PPG, 40.7 3P%) en route to a hard-fought win to put a bow on the regular season.

Score: Kentucky 88, Missouri 83

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Drew Franklin

One last game for the regular season. The Cats head to Columbia West for a game with significant implications for SEC and NCAA seeding on the line. It’s an 11 a.m. start local time and against a team that plays well at home. Missouri is 18-1 at home this season, but lost three of four games, all on the road, heading into the finale.

Kentucky also struggles in road games, and the Cats and Tigers play a similar brand of basketball. I think the comparable styles will give fans a fun game to wrap up Mark Pope’s first regular season. In the end, the good guys will hand Mizzou its second loss at home in 2024-25 and move Kentucky onto the No. 3 seed line in the Big Dance and No. 6 in Nashville.

Amari Williams will be the difference-maker in the matchup of KenPom’s fifth and sixth-best offenses on Saturday. Both teams will knock down 3s and score at a high rate, but it’s Williams who will separate Kentucky in the end. Adding to the fun, Tom Hart, a Mizzou alum but a KSR fan favorite, is on the call.

Score: Kentucky 87, Missouri 84

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Adam Luckett

Kentucky wants to play with space, pace, and shoot a high volume of threes. Missouri wants to play with space, pace, and shoot a high volume of threes. Expect a fun game on Saturday afternoon at Mizzou Arena. If this was a playoff series, the smart bet would be on it reaching a Game 7.

These two teams are very evenly matched and have some legitimate weaknesses on the defensive end of the floor. Kentucky enters this game playing better defense of the two but Mizzou’s defense ranks second in the SEC in turnover percentage (18.8%). That’s not a good sign for a Kentucky offense that has had some ball security issues in recent game.

This will be a race to 90 points. Missouri’s ability to force turnover should lead to some easy points. The Tigers have been dynamite at home all season and that continues on Senior Day. Kentucky comes up short on the road. Three-point volume and turnovers will be the differentiator.

The Cats will begin the SEC Tournament in the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game on Thursday afternoon.

Score: Missouri 91, Kentucky 86

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Nick Roush

Missouri has the fifth-ranked offense in the nation, but the defense (ranked No. 69 by KenPom) is what stands out every time I see the Tigers on TV. They use their length to apply ball pressure that can really rattle opponents, which is exactly what gives Kentucky trouble. If Lamont Butler is on the sideline, the Tigers can quickly turn a 2-point game into an 8-point lead in the blink of an eye.

Kentucky’s worst matchups in recent SEC play have been against teams where you need to win a track meet. Missouri has shot-takers and shot-makers. Caleb Grill is the best of the best. Kentucky can’t let him get hot. Even if they don’t, this game feels like it will play out similarly to the road trip at Alabama. Missouri is hungry for a win in a charged environment after consecutive losses. I hope the Cats can keep up, but I’m not confident.

Score: Missouri 95, Kentucky 86

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Jacob Polacheck

Missouri, like Kentucky, has one of the elite offenses in the nation. And while Kentucky’s defense has been steadily improving over the last month, Missouri has a top 70 defense in their own right.

Kentucky has been excellent this season in big games, but I’m not ready to bet on the Cats stealing one on the road in Columbia. If UK can control the pace of the game and limit Mizzou from deep, they’ll be in a good position to win. If not, they could be in trouble.

Score: Missouri 92, Kentucky 88

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Kentucky at Missouri: How to Watch, Listen

• Date, Time: Saturday, Noon EST
• Television: ESPN (Tom Hart, Dane Bradshaw)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 82
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.