Kentucky moves up in ESPN FPI Rankings after Southern Miss win

It’s hard to tell a ton from Kentucky’s season-opening win over Southern Miss — the game only lasted two and a half quarters due to weather — but ESPN’s computers were impressed. After the 31-0 victory, the Cats climbed five spots in the Football Power Index (FPI) to No. 29. That’s eleventh among SEC teams and way ahead of Saturday’s opponent, South Carolina, which dropped 15 spots to No. 48.

The FPI, which uses 20,000 simulations to project the results of the season, predicts Kentucky will finish with 6.4 wins, giving the Cats a 71.3% chance of reaching the six-win mark. Kentucky has a 6.3% chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 0.3% chance of winning the National Championship game, and a 0.2% chance of winning the SEC. When you have a better chance of making the National Championship game than winning your own conference, you know it just means more.

Here is where every team in the SEC ranks in the FPI, along with Kentucky’s opponents, save Murray State, which competes in the FCS. After beating the brakes off Austin Peay, Louisville climbed eight spots to No. 13. If you know a Card fan, I’m sure they’ve already told you that.

• 1. Georgia (Sept. 14)
• 2. Alabama ↑3
• 3. Texas (Nov. 23)
• 7. Tennessee ↑2 (Nov. 2)
• 8. Ole Miss ↑8 (Sept. 28)
• 9. Oklahoma ↓1
• 12. Missouri ↓2
• 13. Louisville ↑8 (Nov. 30)
• 16. Auburn ↑3 (Oct. 26)
• 18. LSU ↓5
• 19. Texas A&M ↓5
• 29. Kentucky ↑5
• 31. Arkansas ↑13
• 36. Mississippi State ↑13
• 43. Florida ↓23 (Oct. 19)
• 48. South Carolina ↓15 (Sept. 7)
• 68. Vanderbilt ↑8 (Oct. 12)
• 108. Ohio ↑5 (Sept. 21)
• 110. Southern Miss ↓6 (Aug. 31 – 31-0 W)

The AP and Coaches Polls will be updated tomorrow (Florida State plays Boston College tonight). Kentucky came in No. 40 overall in the preseason AP Poll and No. 37 in the Coaches Poll. The win over Southern Miss shouldn’t move the needle too much, but we’ll find out around lunch tomorrow.