Bracket Rundown: Kentucky needs more quality wins

After a humbling road loss to South Carolina on Tuesday, Kentucky sits at 14-4 (4-2) heading into the final weekend in January. The Wildcats have slipped into the 20s in the computer predictive metrics (No. 20 in KenPom, No. 21 in BPI) while ranking between 15-26 in the three result-based metrics that the NCAA Tournament selection committee uses. That means the Wildcats currently have a resume hovering around the No. 3 and No. 4 seed line.

John Calipari‘s team has some work to bolster their resume, but the overall carnage in college basketball makes a climb over the last two months of the regular season possible. Almost no one is winning road games in conference play this season. Kentucky has two sub-100 road games coming up. Both road losses this year (Texas A&M and South Carolina) were in the Quad 1 tier. That is not going to hurt Kentucky.

Now Kentucky must help itself. There are currently six high-quality opportunities remaining on the schedule.

Kentucky needs more Quad 1 wins

Of the 21 teams ranked ahead of Kentucky in the current NET rankings, 16 have more Quad 1 wins than the Wildcats. Purdue (7), UConn (7), Arizona (6), and Houston (5) are all in prime positions to make a run at a No. 1 seed due to their high number of quality wins. The Wildcats will need Quad 1 wins to make moves up the seed lines.

The Wildcats are currently 2-3 in Quad 1 opportunities with wins over North Carolina (neutral) and Florida (road). Each loss came away from home. With a backloaded schedule, there will be some opportunities.

Kentucky currently has six more Quad 1 opportunities on the schedule.

• vs. Tennessee (Feb. 3)
• vs. Gonzaga (Feb. 10)
• at Auburn (Feb. 17)
• vs. Alabama (Feb. 24)
• at Mississippi State (Feb. 27)
• at Tennessee (March 9)

Every Saturday game outside the two meetings with Arkansas for the rest of the season will be a Quad 1 opportunity. Three opportunities at home against Tennessee, Gonzaga, and Alabama stand out. Winning on the road has been very difficult. Kentucky needs to capitalize on these big game chances at Rupp Arena.

There is still some runway remaining in the season, and Kentucky has a chance to make a move. Getting up to the No. 1 seed line seems highly unlikely at the moment, but there is still a path for this team to become a No. 2 seed for the second time in three years if the Wildcats can handle their business at home and avoid Quad 2 losses.

Luckett’s Top 16

1. Purdue (18-2, 7-2)
2. Houston (17-2, 4-2)
3. UConn (17-2, 7-1)
4. North Carolina (16-3, 8-0)
5. Tennessee (14-4, 4-1)
6. Arizona (14-5, 5-3)
7. Kansas (15-3, 4-2)
8. Wisconsin (15-4, 7-1)
9. Marquette (14-5, 5-3)
10. Baylor (13-4, 3-2)
11. Auburn (16-3, 5-1)
12. Creighton (15-5, 6-3)
13. Kentucky (14-4, 4-2)
14. Dayton (16-2, 6-0)
15. Illinois (14-5, 5-3)
16. Duke (14-4, 5-2)

Kentucky falls to the four-seed line this week following the loss to South Carolina. The Wildcats would be placed in the Los Angeles region with No. 1 seed North Carolina, No. 2 seed Tennessee, and No. 3 seed Creighton.

Weekend Games to Watch

— Kansas at Iowa State: Anytime a team goes on the road makes a game notable in this college basketball season. Iowa State has one of the rowdiest venues in college basketball, and Kansas did not look good on the road against UCF or West Virginia. The Cyclones are flirting with a No. 5 seed and could be a team to watch if the Cyclones keep stacking wins in the Big 12.

— North Carolina at Florida State: The Tar Heels might have a real shot at running the table in the ACC if they can handle Duke twice. The road trip to Florida State might be their toughest remaining conference game outside of those two meetings with the Blue Devils. This feels like a No. 1 seed year for UNC.

— Auburn at Mississippi State: Bruce Pearl’s team is fresh off a home loss and is hitting the road to face a Mississippi State team that has lost 3 of 4 and could be getting close to bubble territory. Any Auburn loss would help Kentucky.