Kentucky's resume compared to other potential No. 1 seeds

On Saturday, we found out Kentucky is the No. 6 overall team and a No. 2 seed in the eyes of the Selection Committee. Committee Chair Tom Burnett said the Cats still have a chance to move to the No. 1 seed line. Shortly after, Kentucky added another Quad 1 win to its resume with the 90-81 victory over Alabama. The fact that the Cats were able to beat the Crimson Tide without their starting backcourt should give them bonus points.

Before we get into what needs to happen for Kentucky to secure a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday, here’s a look at the current NET Rankings. Kentucky is third behind Gonzaga and Arizona. After the loss at Florida, Auburn is down to No. 10.

NET Top 25 – Feb. 21

1. Gonzaga
2. Arizona
3. Kentucky
4. Houston
5. Kansas
6. Baylor
7. Villanova
8. Texas Tech
9. Pudue
10. Auburn
11. Tennessee
12. Duke
13. UCLA
14. Illinois
15. Texas
16. LSU
17. UConn
18. Ohio State
19. Iowa
20. Wisconsin
21. Saint Mary’s
22. Alabama
23. Arkansas
24. South California
25. Xavier

NET changes for the 2021-22 season

This is the fourth season the NCAA has used the NET Rankings as its primary metric to evaluate the strength of teams’ wins and losses. This year, the formula has been tweaked. From now on, the NET will only use two components, adjusted net efficiency rating and Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home. Win percentage, adjusted win percentage, and scoring margin are no longer used in the NET rankings.

Kentucky’s Team Sheet

Even with the loss to Tennessee, Kentucky still has a winning record in Quad 1, 6-5. Texas A&M continues to hover in the 70s in the NET rankings; if they fall below No. 75, Kentucky’s win in College Station will move to Quad 2. We say it a lot, but zero losses in Quads 2-4 is huge for the Cats. Three of Kentucky’s four remaining games are Quad 1, including Wednesday’s game vs. LSU and Saturday’s game at Arkansas.

Quad 1: 6-5

Home: 1-30, Neutral: 1-50, Away: 1-75

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	In Conference?	Result
5	01/29/2022	@ Kansas		W 80-62
10	01/22/2022	@ Auburn	Y	L 71-80
11	02/15/2022	@ Tennessee	Y	L 63-76
11	01/15/2022	Tennessee	Y	W 107-79
12	11/09/2021	Duke (@ New York, NY)		L 71-79
16	01/04/2022	@ LSU	Y	L 60-65
16	02/23/2022	LSU	Y
18	12/18/2021	Ohio St. (@ Las Vegas, NV)		Canceled
22	02/05/2022	@ Alabama	Y	W 66-55
22	02/19/2022	Alabama	Y	W 90-81
23	02/26/2022	@ Arkansas	Y
42	12/18/2021	North Carolina (@ Las Vegas, NV)		W 98-69
49	03/05/2022	@ Florida	Y
57	12/11/2021	@ Notre Dame		L 62-66
71	01/19/2022	@ Texas A&M	Y	W 64-58

Quad 2: 4-0

Home: 31-75, Neutral: 51-100, Away: 76-135

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	In Conference?	Result
47	01/25/2022	Mississippi St.	Y	W 82-74 (1 OT)
49	02/12/2022	Florida	Y	W 78-57
78	01/11/2022	@ Vanderbilt	Y	W 78-66
93	02/08/2022	@ South Carolina	Y	W 86-76

Quad 3: 4-0

Home: 76-160, Neutral: 101-200, Away: 136-240

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	In Conference?	Result
78	02/02/2022	Vanderbilt	Y	W 77-70
97	11/19/2021	Ohio		W 77-59
106	03/01/2022	Ole Miss	Y
121	12/22/2021	Western Ky.		W 95-60
124	12/22/2021	Louisville		Ppd
147	12/29/2021	Missouri	Y	W 83-56

Quad 4: 8-0

Home: 161-357, Neutral: 201-357, Away: 241-357

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	In Conference?	Result
192	12/07/2021	Southern U.		W 76-64
213	01/08/2022	Georgia	Y	W 92-77
261	11/26/2021	North Florida		W 86-52
264	11/16/2021	Mount St. Mary’s		W 80-55
267	11/22/2021	Albany (NY)		W 86-61
274	12/31/2021	High Point		W 92-48
323	11/29/2021	Central Mich.		W 85-57
327	11/12/2021	Robert Morris		W 100-60

Kentucky’s resume vs. other potential No. 1 seeds

What needs to happen for Kentucky to get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament? Let’s look at the competition using the top eight teams in the Selection Committee’s reveal.

Gonzaga (Projected No. 1 seed – West)

• Record: 23-2
• NET: 1
• KenPom: 1
• Quad 1: 7-2 (2 games remaining – at Saint Mary’s, at San Francisco)
• Quad 2: 2-0
• Quad 3: 1-0
• Quad 4: 13-0
• Road W-L: 4-0
• NET SOS: 91

With only two games left in the regular season, Gonzaga has a No. 1 seed locked up.

Auburn (Projected No. 1 seed – Midwest)

• Record: 24-3
• NET: 10
• KenPom: 6
• Quad 1: 7-3 (2 games remaining – at Tennessee, at Mississippi State)
• Quad 2: 6-0
• Quad 3: 7-0 (2 games remaining – vs. South Carolina, vs. Ole Miss)
• Quad 4: 4-0
• Road W-L: 7-2
• NET SOS: 42

Auburn’s loss to Florida falls within Quad 1. KenPom predicts the Tigers will pick up another loss, at Tennessee, on Saturday. If so, their hold on a No. 1 seed gets shaky.

Arizona (Projected No. 1 seed – South)

• Record: 24-2
• NET: 2
• KenPom: 3
• Quad 1: 5-2 (1 game remaining – at USC)
• Quad 2: 6-0 (2 games remaining – at Colorado, at Utah)
• Quad 3: 5-0 (1 game remaining – vs. Stanford)
• Quad 4: 8-0
• Road W-L: 7-2
• NET SOS: 64

Arizona’s got a strong case for a No. 1 seed now, but three of their final four games are on the road. Two of those are in Quad 2, which could be resume busters if the Wildcats falter.

Kansas (Projected No. 1 seed – East)

• Record: 22-4
• NET: 5
• KenPom: 5
• Quad 1: 10-3 (3 games remaining – at Baylor, at TCU, vs. Texas)
• Quad 2: 5-1 (1 game remaining – vs. TCU)
• Quad 3: 5-0
• Quad 4: 2-0
• Road W-L: 6-2
• NET SOS: 6

The fact that Kansas was a No. 1 seed in the early reveal surprised me a little bit, but the Jayhawks have the most Quad 1 wins (10) of the bunch. Dayton is now No. 52 in the NET. If the Flyers move into the Top 50, Kansas’ loss to them in the ESPN Events Invitational moves from Quad 2 to Quad 1. With Kansas, Baylor, and Kentucky all vying for the fourth No. 1 seed, head-to-head matchups could come into play. Kentucky obviously beat Kansas. The Jayhawks beat Baylor in the Phog earlier this month, with the rematch set to take place in Waco on Saturday.

Baylor (Projected No. 2 seed – South)

• Record: 22-5
• NET: 6
• KenPom: 4
• Quad 1: 9-4 (3 games remaining – at Oklahoma State, vs. Kansas, at Texas)
• Quad 2: 5-1 (1 game remaining – vs. Iowa State)
• Quad 3: 2-0
• Quad 4: 6-0
• Road W-L: 6-3
• NET SOS: 18

The Bears have the second most Quad 1 wins behind Kansas and the chance to get three more. The loss to Oklahoma State will likely stay in Quad 2 barring a big run by the Cowboys.

Kentucky (Projected No. 2 seed – East)

• Record: 22-5
• NET: 3
• KenPom: 2
• Quad 1: 6-5 (3 games remaining – vs. LSU, at Arkansas, at Florida)
• Quad 2: 4-0
• Quad 3: 4-0 (1 game remaining – vs. Ole Miss)
• Quad 4: 8-0
• Road W-L: 5-4
• NET SOS: 28

The Cats have more Quad 1 losses than any other potential No. 1 seed, but, like Gonzaga, Arizona, and Auburn, zero losses in Quads 2-4.

Purdue (Projected No. 2 seed – Midwest)

• Record: 24-4
• NET: 9
• KenPom: 13
• Quad 1: 7-3 (2 games remaining – at Wisconsin, at Michigan State)
• Quad 2: 4-1 (1 game remaining – vs. Indiana)
• Quad 3: 6-0
• Quad 4: 7-0
• Road W-L: 5-3
• NET SOS: 33

Purdue’s loss to Rutgers (NET No. 80) should keep them out of the No. 1-seed talk.

Duke (Projected No. 2 seed – West)

• Record: 23-4
• NET: 12
• KenPom: 9
• Quad 1: 5-1
• Quad 2: 4-2
• Quad 3: 7-1
• Quad 4: 7-0
• Road W-L: 6-2
• NET SOS: 71

Duke has two Quad 2 losses (Miami, Florida State) AND a Quad 3 loss (Virginia). If they somehow get a No. 1 seed, the Selection Committee is clearly driving the Coach K Farewell Tour bus.