How Kentucky's stat profile has performed in NCAA Tournament

Kentucky has earned a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the second season in a row. The Cats will be looking to avoid the same fate as last year in Pittsburgh. Mark Pope is in his first Big Dance with Kentucky since 1996 and is still looking for his first career win in the tournament. But being at Kentucky is never about just winning one game in March.

Pope has told just about everyone that will listen that he understands the assignment of being the head men’s basketball coach at Kentucky. That means hanging banners. The stat profile of this year’s UK team doesn’t say winning a title is in the cards but the Cats do fit the prototype of some recent Final Four teams.

Kentucky enters this NCAA Tournament ranked in the top 10 (No. 8) of KenPom‘s adjusted offensive efficiency, but the Cats rank sub-50 (No. 56) in adjusted defensive efficiency. That isn’t the profile of a national champion but multiple teams with similar profiles have won as many as four games in this tournament.

Over the last three tournaments once the transfer portal era got really rolling, we have seen 13 teams makes the field with a top-10 offense and sub-50 defense. These teams are a combined 23-13 in the Big Dance with over half making it to the second weekend.

Team	Adjusted Offensive Efficiency	Adjusted Defensive Efficiency	Seed	NCAA Tournament finish
Alabama (2024)	2	111	4	Final Four
Illinois (2024)	3	80	3	Elite Eight
Gonzaga (2024)	5	51	5	Sweet 16
Baylor (2024)	6	72	3	Round of 32
Kentucky (2024)	7	109	3	Round of 64
Gonzaga (2023)	1	73	3	Elite Eight
Baylor (2023)	2	107	3	Round of 32
Iowa (2023)	4	168	8	Round of 64
Miami (2023)	6	99	5	Final Four
Xavier (2023)	8	64	3	Sweet 16
Missouri (2023)	9	180	7	Second Round
Purdue (2022)	2	93	3	Sweet 16
Iowa (2022)	4	80	5	Round of 64

Alabama and Miami each made the Final Four. Illinois made the Elite Eight before losing to eventual national champion UConn in 2024. Gonzaga made the Elite Eight before losing to eventual national champion UConn in 2023. Kentucky (2024), Baylor (2023), Missouri (2023), and Iowa (2022) have each suffered first weekend upsets. Purdue (2022) lost to No. 15 Saint Peter’s in the Sweet 16. There have been some bumps in the road but it is possible to go on a run.

There have been seven teams in this criteria to start the tournament as a No. 3 seed. Four of them have reached the second weekend with Illinois (2024) and Gonzaga (2023) making the Elite Eight. There is a path for Kentucky to advance in this tournament.

It’s hard to envision the Wildcats winning six games in a row, but many teams with the same statistical profile and starting point have made it to the second weekend before running into a buzzsaw in the fourth of fifth game.