Kentucky's NCAA Tournament resume following the Arkansas loss

Even with the loss to Arkansas, Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament resume looks good heading into March. With two games left in the regular season, the Cats are No. 4 in the NET behind Gonzaga, Arizona, and Houston. Kentucky’s Quad 1 record is now 8-6 and could improve to 9-6 with a win over Florida on Saturday.

Before we dig into the team sheet, here are the current NET rankings.

NET Top 25 – Feb. 28

1. Gonzaga
2. Arizona
3. Houston
4. Kentucky
5. Baylor
6. Kansas
7. Villanova
8. Tennessee
9. Duke
10. Texas Tech
11. Auburn
12. Purdue
13. UCLA
14. Illinois
15. Texas
16. LSU
17. UConn
18. Iowa
19. Saint Mary’s
20. Ohio State
21. Wisconsin
22. Alabama
23. Arkansas
24. Murray State
25. Providence

The Cats are No. 2 in KenPom, No. 3 in ESPN’s BPI, and No. 5 in the Sagarin Ratings. We’ll find out their updated AP and Coaches Poll rankings at noon.

NET changes for the 2021-22 season

This is the fourth season the NCAA has used the NET Rankings as its primary metric to evaluate the strength of teams’ wins and losses. This year, the formula has been tweaked. From now on, the NET will only use two components, adjusted net efficiency rating and Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home. Win percentage, adjusted win percentage, and scoring margin are no longer used in the NET rankings.

Kentucky’s Team Sheet

Both the Alabama win and the loss at Arkansas last week were in Quad 1. Vanderbilt moved into the top 75 of the NET, which moves the win over the ‘Dores in Nashville from Quad 2 to Quad 1. Kentucky now has an 8-6 record in Quad 1 and zero losses in Quads 2-4. Tuesday’s game vs. Ole Miss is in Quad 3, Saturday’s game at Florida Quad 1.

Quad 1: 8-6

Home: 1-30, Neutral: 1-50, Away: 1-75

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	In Conference?	Result
6	01/29/2022	@ Kansas		W 80-62
8	02/15/2022	@ Tennessee	Y	L 63-76
8	01/15/2022	Tennessee	Y	W 107-79
9	11/09/2021	Duke (@ New York, NY)		L 71-79
11	01/22/2022	@ Auburn	Y	L 71-80
16	01/04/2022	@ LSU	Y	L 60-65
16	02/23/2022	LSU	Y	W 71-66
20	12/18/2021	Ohio St. (@ Las Vegas, NV)		Canceled
22	02/05/2022	@ Alabama	Y	W 66-55
22	02/19/2022	Alabama	Y	W 90-81
23	02/26/2022	@ Arkansas	Y	L 73-75
40	12/18/2021	North Carolina (@ Las Vegas, NV)		W 98-69
46	12/11/2021	@ Notre Dame		L 62-66
51	03/05/2022	@ Florida	Y
66	01/19/2022	@ Texas A&M	Y	W 64-58
74	01/11/2022	@ Vanderbilt	Y	W 78-66

Quad 2: 4-0

Home: 31-75, Neutral: 51-100, Away: 76-135

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	In Conference?	Result
51	02/12/2022	Florida	Y	W 78-57
52	01/25/2022	Mississippi St.	Y	W 82-74 (1 OT)
74	02/02/2022	Vanderbilt	Y	W 77-70
91	02/08/2022	@ South Carolina	Y	W 86-76

Quad 3: 3-0

Home: 76-160, Neutral: 101-200, Away: 136-240

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	In Conference?	Result
102	11/19/2021	Ohio		W 77-59
110	03/01/2022	Ole Miss	Y
124	12/22/2021	Western Ky.		W 95-60
125	12/22/2021	Louisville		Postponed
155	12/29/2021	Missouri	Y	W 83-56

Quad 4: 8-0

Home: 161-357, Neutral: 201-357, Away: 241-357

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	In Conference?	Result
200	12/07/2021	Southern U.		W 76-64
215	01/08/2022	Georgia	Y	W 92-77
255	12/31/2021	High Point		W 92-48
267	11/16/2021	Mount St. Mary’s		W 80-55
274	11/26/2021	North Florida		W 86-52
275	11/22/2021	Albany (NY)		W 86-61
317	11/29/2021	Central Mich.		W 85-57
331	11/12/2021	Robert Morris		W 100-60

Kentucky’s resume vs. other potential No. 1, No. 2 seeds

A No. 1 seed may be out of reach for Kentucky barring a strong run in the SEC Tournament (although we know the committee doesn’t consider the Sunday championship game results). Regardless, they’re still in line for a No. 2 seed. Here is the Cats’ resume compared to the top eight teams in the latest Bracketology.

Gonzaga (Projected No. 1 seed)

• Record: 24-3
• NET: 1
• KenPom: 1
• Quad 1: 8-3
• Quad 2: 2-0
• Quad 3: 1-0
• Quad 4: 13-0
• Road W-L: 5-1
• NET SOS: 69

Gonzaga lost at Saint Mary’s Saturday, but that loss falls in Quad 1. The Bulldogs remain the top team in the NET and KenPom and still have a No. 1 seed locked up. Gonzaga’s regular season is complete and the West Coast Conference Tournament begins on Thursday.

Arizona (Projected No. 1 seed)

• Record: 25-3
• NET: 2
• KenPom: 4
• Quad 1: 5-2 (1 game remaining – at USC)
• Quad 2: 8-1
• Quad 3: 4-0 (1 game remaining – Stanford)
• Quad 4: 8-0
• Road W-L: 8-3
• NET SOS: 67

Arizona’s loss at Colorado (NET No. 77) on Saturday is right on the cusp of Quad 1 and Quad 2. With only three losses, the West Coast Wildcats probably still have a No. 1 seed locked up.

Kansas (Projected No. 1 seed)

• Record: 23-5
• NET: 6
• KenPom: 7
• Quad 1: 10-4 (2 games remaining – Texas, at TCU)
• Quad 2: 6-1 (1 game remaining – TCU)
• Quad 3: 4-0
• Quad 4: 3-0
• Road W-L: 6-3
• NET SOS: 7

The Jayhawks lost at Baylor but have 10 Quad 1 wins, the second most behind the Bears. They could have 12 Quad 1 wins by the time the regular season is over — which would be the most of any team — boosting their chances for a No. 1 seed.

Baylor (Projected No. 1 seed)

• Record: 24-5
• NET: 5
• KenPom: 3
• Quad 1: 11-4 (1 game remaining – at Texas)
• Quad 2: 5-1 (1 game remaining – Iowa State)
• Quad 3: 2-0
• Quad 4: 6-0
• Road W-L: 7-3
• NET SOS: 12

Baylor’s win over Kansas may give the Bears a No. 1 seed. Joe Lunardi moved the Bears from No. 6 to No. 4 on his seed list, bumping Auburn to the No. 2 seed line.

Auburn (Projected No. 2 seed)

• Record: 25-4
• NET: 11
• KenPom: 8
• Quad 1: 7-4 (1 game remaining – at Mississippi State)
• Quad 2: 7-0
• Quad 3: 7-0 (1 game remaining – South Carolina)
• Quad 4: 4-0
• Road W-L: 7-3
• NET SOS: 36

Like Kentucky and Gonzaga, Auburn has zero losses in Quads 2-4. However, the Tigers have slipped in the metrics, down to No. 11 in the NET and No. 8 in KenPom. Keep in mind, even if they get a No. 1 seed, Kentucky can’t be their No. 2 because they’re in the same conference.

Kentucky (Projected No. 2 seed)

• Record: 23-6
• NET: 4
• KenPom: 2
• Quad 1: 8-6 (1 game remaining – at Florida)
• Quad 2: 4-0
• Quad 3: 3-0 (1 game remaining – South Carolina)
• Quad 4: 8-0
• Road W-L: 5-5
• NET SOS: 22

Kentucky has the most losses (six) of the top eight teams but the third most Quad 1 wins (eight). Having that Vandy win in Quad 1 is big, so cheer for the ‘Dores to stay in the NET Top 75. They play Florida on Tuesday and Ole Miss on Saturday.

Duke (Projected No. 2 seed)

• Record: 25-4
• NET: 9
• KenPom: 5
• Quad 1: 5-1
• Quad 2: 6-2 (1 game remaining – North Carolina)
• Quad 3: 6-1 (1 game remaining – at Pittsburgh)
• Quad 4: 8-0
• Road W-L: 8-2
• NET SOS: 71

The Blue Devils are riding a six-game winning streak and are now in the top 10 of the NET, but their losses in Quads 2 and 3 should eliminate them from No. 1 seed talk. They also only have five Quad 1 wins, tied for the fewest among the top eight teams with Arizona.

Purdue (Projected No. 2 seed)

• Record: 24-5
• NET: 12
• KenPom: 13
• Quad 1: 7-4 (1 game remaining – at Wisconsin)
• Quad 2: 4-1 (1 game remaining – Indiana)
• Quad 3: 6-0
• Quad 4: 7-0
• Road W-L: 5-4
• NET SOS: 35

The Boilermakers’ loss at Michigan State Saturday falls in Quad 1. Their loss to Rutgers (NET No. 83) will keep them off the No. 1 seed line.