NCAA Resume Watch: Kentucky needs to build on big win at Auburn

What a difference a week makes. Last Monday, we were reeling after Kentucky’s loss to Gonzaga, the Cats’ third straight at Rupp Arena. Today, we’re celebrating back-to-back wins, including the biggest of the season.

Kentucky’s 70-59 victory at Auburn was needed on many levels. Not only does it bring the double-bye at the SEC Tournament back into play, but it’s also the Quad 1 stunner the Cats’ resume was lacking. When seeding the NCAA Tournament, the Selection Committee places the most value on road wins. Aside from maybe the regular season finale at Tennessee, Saturday’s game on the Plains was the most difficult road game on Kentucky’s schedule. The Cats responded, controlling the game from start to finish to earn a shiny big win atop Quad 1.

The victory boosted Kentucky to No. 22 in the NET Rankings, up from No. 25 a week ago. The Cats can use the momentum from the Auburn win to improve their resume even more in the final stretch of the season. Three of Kentucky’s remaining six games are in Quad 1, including Saturday’s vs. Alabama in Rupp Arena. The Crimson Tide is now No. 5 in the NET, the highest-ranked team from the SEC, just ahead of Tennessee (No. 6) and Auburn (No. 7). Kentucky is now 3-6 in Quad 1 games. Bringing that mark to .500 in the next three weeks is a very, very tall task, but picking up just one or two more Quad 1 wins would significantly help the Cats’ resume.

As we’ll do each Monday until Selection Sunday, let’s look at Kentucky’s team sheet, which the Selection Committee will use as it determines the Cats’ seed in the NCAA Tournament.

• Quad 1: 3-6 (3 games remaining)
• Quad 2: 2-0 (1 game remaining)
• Quad 3: 7-1 (1 game remaining)
• Quad 4: 6-0 (1 game remaining)

Quad 1: 3-6

Home: 1-30 | Neutral: 1-50 | Away: 1-75

NET	Date	Opponent	Result
5	2/24/2024	Alabama
6	3/9/2024	at Tennessee
6	2/3/2024	Tennessee	L 92-103
7	2/17/2024	at Auburn	W 70-59
9	12/16/2023	North Carolina (CBS Sports Classic)	W 87-83
16	11/14/2023	Kansas (Champions Classic)	L 84-89
23	2/10/2024	Gonzaga	L 85-89
28	1/6/2024	at Florida	W 87-85
28	1/31/2024	Florida	L 91-94 (1 OT)
38	2/27/2024	at Mississippi State
45	1/13/2024	at Texas A&M	L 92-97 (1 OT)
58	1/23/2024	at South Carolina	L 62-79

Quad 2: 2-0

Home: 31-75 | Neutral: 51-100 | Away: 76-135

NET	Date	Opponent	Result
38	1/17/2024	Mississippi State	W 90-77
65	2/13/2024	Ole Miss	W 75-63
88	2/21/2024	at LSU

Quad 3: 7-1

Home: 76-160 | Neutral: 101-200 | Away: 136-240

NET	Date	Opponent	Result
79	11/28/2023	Miami (FL)	W 95-73
97	11/20/2023	Saint Joseph’s	W 96-88 (1 OT)
98	1/20/2024	Georgia	W 105-96
107	12/2/2023	UNC Wilmington	L 73-80
136	03/02/2024	Arkansas
136	1/27/2024	at Arkansas	W 63-57
148	1/9/2024	Missouri	W 90-77
195	12/21/2023	at Louisville	W 95-76
220	2/6/2024	at Vanderbilt	W 109-77

Quad 4: 6-0

Home: 161-362 | Neutral: 201-362 | Away: 241-362

NET	Date	Opponent	Result
180	12/29/2023	Illinois State	W 96-70
219	12/9/2023	Penn (Neutral)	W 81-66
220	3/6/2024	Vanderbilt
227	11/24/2023	Marshall	W 118-82
272	11/06/2023	New Mexico State	W 86-46
332	11/10/2023	Texas A&M-Commerce	W 81-61
356	11/17/2023	Stonehill	W 101-67

Team Sheet Notes

— Quad 2 looks a lot different this week. Last Monday, there were six games in Quad 2 on Kentucky’s team sheet; now, there are only three. Florida moved up to No. 28 in the NET, which bumps the Cats’ loss to the Gators in Rupp Arena to Quad 1. Miami (No. 79) and Arkansas (No. 136) both fell in the NET, dragging those wins to Quad 3. It would be nice if the Canes and the Razorbacks would finish strong to bump those back up to Quad 2, as combined Quad 1 and 2 record is a metric the committee sometimes uses.

— The Alabama and Tennessee games are the standouts on the rest of the schedule, but Kentucky’s trip to Mississippi State next week is also comfortably in Quad 1. The Bulldogs are No. 38 in the NET and riding a three-game winning streak. KenPom currently projects Kentucky to lose that game by two; if the Cats can pick up a win in Starkville, it will help offset Quad 1 losses like Florida, Gonzaga, Texas A&M, and South Carolina.

— Speaking of the Gamecocks, they’re down to No. 58 in the NET following losses to Auburn (away) and LSU (home). KenPom projects South Carolina to lose four of its remaining five games (at Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, vs. Tennessee, and at Mississippi State). If the Gamecocks fall below No. 75 in the NET, Kentucky’s loss in Columbia moves down to Quad 2.

— Kentucky is currently projected to be a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament by Joe Lunardi. Here is how the Cats’ resume compares to teams around them on the No. 5/No. 6 seed lines courtesy of Bracketologists:

The Road Ahead

Here is where each remaining game sits on the team sheet according to the current NET rankings. As mentioned, the Cats host Alabama in another big Quad 1 game on Saturday, but Wednesday’s trip to Baton Rouge is also significant and cannot be overlooked. LSU, which is coming off a big win at South Carolina, is No. 88 in the NET, placing this game in Quad 2 on the Cats’ team sheet. Kentucky must take care of business on what could be a very tricky road trip.

Date	Opponent	NET	Quad
2/21/2024	at LSU	88	Quad 2
2/24/2024	Alabama	5	Quad 1
2/27/2024	at Mississippi State	38	Quad 1
3/2/2024	Arkansas	136	Quad 3
3/6/2024	Vanderbilt	220	Quad 4
3/9/2024	at Tennessee	6	Quad 1