NCAA Resume Watch: Big wins keep Kentucky in the Selection Committee's favor -- for now

On Saturday, the Selection Committee revealed the top 16 teams through games on February 14. Kentucky was a No. 3 seed and the No. 10 overall team, with Selection Committee chair Bubba Cunningham praising the Cats’ big wins and suggesting they’re willing to give them some grace for the injuries they’ve been dealing with. Hours later, Kentucky picked up its eighth loss of the season at Texas. Because it was on the road, it’s a Quad 1 loss (Quad 1A, even), but still, the way the Cats crumbled down the stretch was deflating.

Kentucky fell just two spots in the NET Rankings to No. 17. The Cats have wins over four of the top ten teams in the NET: No. 2 Duke, No. 4 Florida, No. 5 Tennessee (twice), and No. 10 Gonzaga. They have chances to get two more with games against No. 1 Auburn and No. 6 Alabama still upcoming. As Cunningham said, those are some big wins. So far, they’ve been enough to offset Kentucky’s “bad losses.” With injuries still looming over this squad, will we be able to say the same 27 days from now?

Let’s talk team sheet, which the Selection Committee will use as it determines the Cats’ seed in the NCAA Tournament. As mentioned, Kentucky’s loss at Texas is in Quad 1A, so it won’t hurt the Cats much. The victory over Tennessee on Tuesday was also in Quad 1A, another big star on the resume. Four of Kentucky’s six remaining games are in Quad 1, including Saturday’s game vs. Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Wednesday’s game vs. Vanderbilt is in Quad 2 and the game vs. LSU on March 4 is in Quad 3. Even shorthanded, Kentucky cannot afford to lose either.

Let’s break it all down.

• Quad 1: 8-7 (Games Remaining: 4)
  • Quad 1A: 7-5
  • Quad 1B: 1-2
• Quad 2: 0-1 (Games Remaining: 1)
• Quad 3: 3-0 (Games Remaining: 1)
• Quad 4: 6-0 (Games Remaining: 0)

Quad 1: 8-7

• Quad 1: Home: 1-30 | Neutral: 1-50 | Away: 1-75
  • *Quad 1A: Home 1-15 | Neutral 1-25 | Away 1-40
  • Quad 1B: Home 16-30 | Neutral 26-50 | Away 41-75

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
1	03/01/2025	* Auburn
2	11/12/2024	* Duke (Champions Classic)	W 77-72
4	01/04/2025	* Florida	W 106-100
5	01/28/2025	* @ Tennessee	W 78-73
5	02/11/2025	* Tennessee	W 75-64
6	02/22/2025	* @ Alabama
6	01/18/2025	* Alabama	L 97-102
10	12/07/2024	* Gonzaga (Seattle)	W 90-89 (1 OT)
11	01/14/2025	* Texas A&M	W 81-69
16	03/08/2025	* @ Missouri
25	02/04/2025	* @ Ole Miss	L 84-98
26	12/03/2024	* @ Clemson	L 66-70
27	12/14/2024	Louisville	W 93-85
29	01/11/2025	* @ Mississippi State	W 95-90
30	12/21/2024	Ohio State (CBS Sports Classic)	L 65-85
31	02/15/2025	@ Texas	L 78-82
39	01/07/2025	@ Georgia	L 69-82
41	01/25/2025	@ Vanderbilt	L 69-74
52	02/26/2025	@ Oklahoma

Quad 2: 0-1

Home: 31-75 | Neutral: 51-100 | Away: 76-135

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
41	02/19/2025	Vanderbilt
42	02/01/2025	Arkansas	L 79-89

Quad 3: 3-0

Home: 76-160 | Neutral: 101-200 | Away: 136-240

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
82	03/04/2025	LSU
87	11/19/2024	Lipscomb	W 97-68
91	02/08/2025	South Carolina	W 80-57
126	11/26/2024	Western Kentucky	W 87-68

Quad 4: 6-0

Home: 161-362 | Neutral: 201-362 | Away: 241-362

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
200	11/04/2024	Wright St.	W 103-62
218	12/31/2024	Brown	W 88-54
231	11/09/2024	Bucknell	W 100-72
241	12/11/2024	Colgate	W 78-67
261	11/29/2024	Georgia St.	W 105-76
291	11/22/2024	Jackson St.	W 108-59

Team Sheet Notes

— Kentucky’s eight Quad 1 wins is still tied with Tennessee for the second-most in the country behind Auburn, which has 14. The Tigers’ NCAA Tournament resume is beyond impressive, especially after Saturday’s win at Alabama.

— Selection Committee chair Bubba Cunningham talked a lot about Wins Above Bubble (WAB), a new metric the committee introduced this season along with the Torvik Rankings. WAB calculates how well a team performs against an average bubble team vs. the same schedule. Kentucky’s WAB is currently 4.19, meaning the Cats have approximately 4.19 more wins than an average bubble team. That ranks No. 12 in the country. So, even though the Cats have struggled against actual bubble teams, their big wins are making up for it (so far).

— No one wants to cheer for Louisville but we need the Cards to stay in the Top 30 of the NET for the win over them in Rupp stays in Quad 1. Currently, Louisville is No. 27. KenPom projects Louisville to win their remaining five games because the ACC is terrible.

— Speaking of KenPom, the computer model has Kentucky splitting its remaining six games, beating Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, and LSU, and losing to Alabama, Auburn, and Missouri. Without all the uncertainty around Butler and Robinson, that would be a good finish to the regular season. Pull off an upset in at least one of the projected losses and the Cats can still get a top-three seed.

The Road Ahead

Wednesday’s game vs. Vanderbilt is another must-win, not just for morale but for resume. The Cats cannot afford another Quad 2 loss. The ‘Dores got the best of Kentucky in Nashville and led Tennessee by 16 before faltering down the stretch. The Cats need to find a way to take care of business at home before going to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama, a game in which they’re essentially playing with house money.

Date	Opponent	NET Ranking	Quad
02/19/2025	Vanderbilt	41	Quad 2
02/22/2025	@ Alabama	6	Quad 1A
02/26/2025	@ Oklahoma	52	Quad 1B
03/01/2025	Auburn	1	Quad 1A
03/04/2025	LSU	82	Quad 3
03/08/2025	@ Missouri	16	Quad 1A

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