How the SEC Tournament could impact Kentucky's case for a No. 1 seed

The regular season is now complete and Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament resume is looking good with room to grow. The Cats’ win at Florida on Saturday took their Quad 1 record to 8-6. At the SEC Tournament, Kentucky could play three more Quad 1 games. As we’ll discuss here in a minute, not all of the potential No. 1 seeds can say that.

First, let’s review the current NET rankings. Kentucky is fourth behind Gonzaga, Arizona, and Baylor.

NET Top 25 – March 7

1. Gonzaga
2. Arizona
3. Baylor
4. Kentucky
5. Houston
6. Villanova
7. Kansas
8. Tennessee
9. Duke
10. Auburn
11. UCLA
12. Texas Tech
13. Purdue
14. Illinois
15. Iowa
16. LSU
17. Texas
18. UConn
19. Saint Mary’s
20. Arkansas
21. Wisconsin
22. Ohio State
23. Murray State
24. San Francisco
25. Loyola Chicago

Kentucky is No. 3 in KenPom and ESPN’s BPI and No. 4 in the Sagarin Ratings. We’ll find out the Cats’ updated AP and Coaches Poll rankings at noon.

NET changes for the 2021-22 season

This is the fourth season the NCAA has used the NET Rankings as its primary metric to evaluate the strength of teams’ wins and losses. This year, the formula has been tweaked. From now on, the NET will only use two components, adjusted net efficiency rating and Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home. Win percentage, adjusted win percentage, and scoring margin are no longer used in the NET rankings.

Kentucky’s Team Sheet

Kentucky’s eight Quad 1 wins are tied for the third most with Gonzaga, Auburn, and Wisconsin. Baylor has the most, with eleven, followed by Kansas with ten. The Cats would have nine Quad 1 wins, but Vanderbilt’s NET ranking fell to No. 79, which moved the victory over the ‘Dores in Nashville to Quad 2. The Cats are undefeated in Quads 2-4, which Gonzaga, Arizona, and Auburn can also boast.

Quad 1: 8-6

Home: 1-30, Neutral: 1-50, Away: 1-75

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	In Conference?	Result
7	01/29/2022	@ Kansas		W 80-62
8	02/15/2022	@ Tennessee	Y	L 63-76
8	01/15/2022	Tennessee	Y	W 107-79
9	11/09/2021	Duke (@ New York, NY)		L 71-79
10	01/22/2022	@ Auburn	Y	L 71-80
16	01/04/2022	@ LSU	Y	L 60-65
16	02/23/2022	LSU	Y	W 71-66
20	02/26/2022	@ Arkansas	Y	L 73-75
22	12/18/2021	Ohio St. (@ Las Vegas, NV)		Canceled
28	02/05/2022	@ Alabama	Y	W 66-55
28	02/19/2022	Alabama	Y	W 90-81
33	12/18/2021	North Carolina (@ Las Vegas, NV)		W 98-69
50	12/11/2021	@ Notre Dame		L 62-66
54	03/05/2022	@ Florida	Y	W 71-63
56	01/19/2022	@ Texas A&M	Y	W 64-58

Quad 2: 4-0

Home: 31-75, Neutral: 51-100, Away: 76-135

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	In Conference?	Result
54	02/12/2022	Florida	Y	W 78-57
57	01/25/2022	Mississippi St.	Y	W 82-74 (1 OT)
79	01/11/2022	@ Vanderbilt	Y	W 78-66
90	02/08/2022	@ South Carolina	Y	W 86-76

Quad 3: 5-0

Home: 76-160, Neutral: 101-200, Away: 136-240

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	In Conference?	Result
79	02/02/2022	Vanderbilt	Y	W 77-70
106	03/01/2022	Ole Miss	Y	W 83-72
111	11/19/2021	Ohio		W 77-59
121	12/22/2021	Western Ky.		W 95-60
137	12/22/2021	Louisville		Ppd
153	12/29/2021	Missouri	Y	W 83-56

Quad 4: 8-0

Home: 161-357, Neutral: 201-357, Away: 241-357

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	In Conference?	Result
210	12/07/2021	Southern U.		W 76-64
213	01/08/2022	Georgia	Y	W 92-77
254	11/16/2021	Mount St. Mary’s		W 80-55
261	12/31/2021	High Point		W 92-48
275	11/26/2021	North Florida		W 86-52
284	11/22/2021	Albany (NY)		W 86-61
318	11/29/2021	Central Mich.		W 85-57
330	11/12/2021	Robert Morris		W 100-60

Kentucky’s resume vs. other potential No. 1, No. 2 seeds

Kentucky is a No. 2 seed in all major NCAA Tournament projections, but a strong performance in the SEC Tournament could push the Cats to the No. 1 seed line. Right now, Kentucky is the No. 6 overall team on the Bracket Matrix behind Kansas. Joe Lunardi has the Cats at No. 6 too behind Kansas (No. 4) and Auburn (No. 5). CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm moved the Cats up to No. 5, making them the highest No. 2 seed.

Here’s how Kentucky’s team sheet compares to the top eight teams on the Bracket Matrix.

Team	Record	NET	KenPom	SOS	Non-Con SOS	Quad 1 (Quad 1A)	Quad 2	Quad 3	Quad 4
Gonzaga	24-3, 13-1 WCC	1	1	69	65	8-3 (3-2)	2-0	1-0	13-0
Baylor	26-5, 14-4 Big 12	3	4	10	103	11-4 (3-4)	7-1	2-0	6-0
Arizona	28-3, 18-2 Pac-12	2	2	65	67	5-3 (3-2)	9-0	6-0	8-0
Kansas	25-6, 14-4 Big 12	7	9	6	76	10-5 (2-4)	7-1	5-0	3-0
Kentucky	25-6, 14-4 SEC	4	3	24	116	8-6 (3-5)	4-0	5-0	8-0
Auburn	27-4, 15-3 SEC	10	7	40	86	8-4 (3-3)	6-0	9-0	4-0
Duke	26-5, 16-4 ACC	9	6	72	110	5-1 (4-1)	5-3	9-1	7-0
Wisconsin	24-6, 15-5 Big 10	21	30	18	39	8-3 (6-2)	8-1	4-2	4-0

Who can add to their resume the most this week? Kentucky, Baylor, and Wisconsin all have THREE potential Quad 1 games remaining.

Gonzaga

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 2 (Max Quad 1 record 10-3)

• Mon., March 7 (WCC Semifinals): vs. San Francisco (NET 24) – Quad 1
• Tue., March 8 (WCC Finals): vs. Santa Clara (NET 67)/Saint Mary’s (NET 19) – Quad 1 or 2

Baylor

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 3 (Max Quad 1 record 14-4)

• Thurs., March 10 (Big 12 Quarterfinals): vs. Oklahoma (NET 42) – Quad 1
• Fri., March 11 (Big 12 Semifinals): vs. Texas Tech (NET 12)/Iowa State (NET 41) – Quad 1
• Sat., March 12 (Big 12 Finals): Only Quad 1 if it’s Kansas, Texas, or TCU

Arizona

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 1 (Max Quad 1 record 6-3)

• Thurs., March 10 (Pac-12 Quarterfinals): vs. Stanford (NET 108)/Arizona State (NET 96) – Quad 2 or 3
• Fri., March 11 (Pac-12 Semifinals): vs. Colorado (NET 75), Oregon (NET 74), Oregon State (NET 252) – Quad 2 or 4
• Sat., March 12 (Pac-12 Finals): Only Quad 1 if it’s UCLA (NET 11) or USC (NET 34)

Kansas

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 2 (Max Quad 1 record 12-5)

• Thurs., March 10 (Big 12 Quarterfinals): vs. Kansas State (NET No. 71)/West Virginia (NET No. 78) – Quad 2
• Fri., March 11 (Big 12 Semifinals): vs. Texas (NET No. 17)/TCU (No. 46) – Quad 1
• Sat., March 12 (Big 12 Finals): vs. Baylor (NET 3)/Oklahoma (NET 42)/Texas Tech (NET 12)/Iowa State (NET 41) – Quad 1

Kentucky

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 3 (Max Quad 1 record: 11-6)

• Fri., March 11 (SEC Quarterfinals): vs. Alabama (NET 28)/Vanderbilt (NET 79)/Georgia (NET 213) – Quad 1, 2 or 4
• Sat., March 12 (SEC Semifinals) vs. Tennessee (NET 8)/Mississippi State (NET 57)/South Carolina (NET 90) – Quad 1 or 2
• Sun., March 13 (SEC Finals) – Only Quad 1 if it’s Auburn (NET 10), Arkansas (NET 20), or LSU (NET 16)

Auburn

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 2 (Max Quad 1 record: 10-4)

• Fri., March 11 (SEC Quarterfinals): vs. Florida (NET 54)/Texas A&M (NET 56) – Quad 2
• Sat., March 12 (SEC Semifinals): vs. Arkansas (NET 20)/LSU (NET 16)/Ole Miss (NET 106)/Missouri (NET 153) – Quad 1 or Quad 3
• Sun., March 13 (SEC Finals): Only Quad 1 if it’s Kentucky (NET 4), Tennessee (NET 8), or Alabama (NET 28)

Duke

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 2 (Max Quad 1 record: 7-1)

• Thurs., March 10 (ACC Quarterfinals): vs. Florida State (NET 99)/Syracuse (NET 94) – Quad 2
• Fri., March 11 (ACC Semifinals): vs. Miami (NET 59)/Wake Forest (NET 39)/Boston College (NET 170)/Pitt (NET 193) – Quad 1, 2, or 3
• Sat., March 12 (ACC Finals): Only Quad 1 if it’s North Carolina (NET 33) or Notre Dame (NET 50)

Wisconsin

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 3 (Max Quad 1 record: 11-3)

• Fri., March 11 (Big Ten Quarterfinals): vs. Michigan State (NET 40)/Maryland (NET 89) – Quad 1 or 2
• Sat., March 12 (Big Ten Semifinals): vs. Purdue (NET 13)/Ohio State (NET 22)/Minnesota (NET 107)/Penn State (NET 93) – Quad 1, 2 or 3
• Sun., March 13 (Big Ten Finals): Only Quad 1 if it’s Illinois (NET 14), Iowa (NET 15), Michigan (NET 31) or Indiana (NET 44)

As John Calipari says, the SEC Tournament is all about seeding. If the Cats win it — or even just make the semifinals depending on other results — they’d have a resume worthy of a No. 1 seed.