NCAA Tournament Resume: What is Kentucky's ceiling with a strong SEC Tournament run?

Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament resume is trending up at just the right time. After their first 2-0 week since December, the Cats are a No. 3 seed in most NCAA Tournament projections. A strong run in the SEC Tournament this week could help them climb even higher.

Before we get into that, let’s look at where the Cats stand right now. Kentucky is No. 12 in the NET Rankings, up three spots from this time last week. Duke is No. 1 in the NET, taking Auburn’s spot last Tuesday. Kentucky has wins over four of the top ten teams in the NET: Duke (No. 1), Florida (No. 4), Tennessee (No. 5), and Gonzaga (No. 8). The Cats’ WAB (Wins Above Bubble) is now 5.86, which ranks ninth in the country. That means they have almost six more wins than the average bubble team.

Saturday’s win at Missouri was Kentucky’s tenth in Quad 1, which is tied with Tennessee and Houston for the fourth most in the country behind Auburn (16), Michigan State (12), and Alabama (11). It was also the Cats’ seventh in Quad 1A, which ranks behind Alabama (9) and Auburn (8). Kentucky could add to both of those totals this week.

Let’s break down Kentucky’s team sheet, which the Selection Committee will use this week as it determines the Cats’ seed in the NCAA Tournament.

• Quad 1: 10-9
  • Quad 1A: 7-6
  • Quad 1B: 3-3
• Quad 2: 1-1
• Quad 3: 4-0
• Quad 4: 6-0

Quad 1: 10-9

Quad 1: Home: 1-30 | Neutral: 1-50 | Away: 1-75

Quad 1A: 7-6 (Home: 1-15, Neutral 1-25, Away 1-40)
Date	NET Ranking	Opponent	Result
11/12/2024	1	Duke (Champions Classic)	W 77-72
03/01/2025	2	Auburn	L 78-94
01/04/2025	4	Florida	W 106-100
01/28/2025	5	@ Tennessee	W 78-73
02/11/2025	5	Tennessee	W 75-64
02/22/2025	6	@ Alabama	L 83-96
01/18/2025	6	Alabama	L 97-102
12/07/2024	8	Gonzaga (Seattle)	W 90-89 (1 OT)
03/08/2025	21	@ Missouri	W 91-83
12/03/2024	22	@ Clemson	L 66-70
02/04/2025	27	@ Ole Miss	L 84-98
01/07/2025	30	@ Georgia	L 69-82
01/11/2025	34	@ Mississippi State	W 95-90

Quad 1B (Home 16-30, Neutral 26-50, Away 41-75)
Date	NET Ranking	Opponent	Result
01/14/2025	16	Texas A&M	W 81-69
12/14/2024	23	Louisville	W 93-85
12/21/2024	36	Ohio State (CBS Sports Classic)	L 65-85
02/15/2025	42	@ Texas	L 78-82
01/25/2025	43	@ Vanderbilt	L 69-74
02/26/2025	47	@ Oklahoma	W 83-82

Quad 2: 1-1

Home: 31-75 | Neutral: 51-100 | Away: 76-135

Date	NET Ranking	Opponent	Result
02/01/2025	39	Arkansas	L 79-89
02/19/2025	43	Vanderbilt	W 82-61

Quad 3: 4-0

Home: 76-160 | Neutral: 101-200 | Away: 136-240

Date	NET Ranking	Opponent	Result
11/19/2024	84	Lipscomb	W 97-68
03/04/2025	86	LSU	W 95-64
02/08/2025	87	South Carolina	W 80-57
11/26/2024	154	Western Ky.	W 87-68

Quad 4: 6-0

Home: 161-362 | Neutral: 201-362 | Away: 241-362

Date	NET Ranking	Opponent	Result
12/31/2024	214	Brown	W 88-54
11/09/2024	215	Bucknell	W 100-72
11/04/2024	221	Wright State	W 103-62
12/11/2024	245	Colgate	W 78-67
11/29/2024	265	Georgia State	W 105-76
11/22/2024	275	Jackson State	W 108-59

What Kentucky can add to its NCAA Tournament Resume in Nashville

Kentucky will open SEC Tournament play vs. the winner of Georgia (NET 30) and Oklahoma (NET 47) on Thursday night. Games on neutral courts against teams in the top 50 of the NET are in Quad 1; games against top 25 foes are in Quad 1A. In the SEC, only LSU and South Carolina rank outside of the top 50 of the NET. The odds of Kentucky facing either are very low, so the Cats can only add Quad 1 wins to its resume in Nashville unless Oklahoma falls below No. 50.

Obviously, if Kentucky makes it to Friday, the opportunities get bigger. Alabama is No. 6 in the NET; a victory over the Crimson Tide would be another cherry on top of a very impressive Quad 1. If the Cats can pull off the upset, another Quad 1A opportunity awaits vs. Florida or Missouri. Make it to the finals and Kentucky could add the Grand Poobah of resume boosters, a win over Auburn, No. 2 in the NET.

• Thursday (2nd Round):
  • QUAD 1B – Georgia (NET 30) or Oklahoma (NET 47)
• Friday (Quarterfinals):
  • QUAD 1A – Alabama (NET 6)
• Saturday (Semifinals):
  • QUAD 1A – Florida (NET 4) or Missouri (NET 21)
  • QUAD 1B – Mississippi State (NET 34)
  • QUAD 2 – LSU (NET 86)
• Sunday (Finals):
  • Quad 1A – Auburn (NET 2), Tennessee (NET 5), or Texas A&M (NET 16)
  • Quad 1B – Ole Miss (NET 27), Arkansas (NET 39), Texas (NET 42), Vanderbilt (NET 43)
  • Quad 2 – South Carolina (NET 87)

Kentucky could add as many as four Quad 1 wins to its resume in Nashville. Even just beating Alabama to get to Saturday would bring the Cats’ total to 12, which is pretty darn good — and potentially worthy of a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. BartTorvik’s projections have Kentucky as the final No. 2 seed even if they lose to Alabama in the quarterfinals.

Here is Kentucky’s current resume compared to teams around them on the Nos. 2-3 seed lines, via Bracketologists:

How Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament Resume ranks against former teams

BartTorvik’s database has a neat NCAA Tournament resume comparison tool. This Kentucky team’s resume stacks up with every team since 2009-10. The one outlier is Quad 1 & 2 wins, but that’s because 19 of Kentucky’s 31 games have been in Quad 1 so far.

TEAM	YEAR	NET	WAB	Q1 WINS	Q1+Q2 WINS	Q3 & Q4 LOSSES	SCORE	SEED	TYPE	RD
Kentucky	2015	1	1	11	22	0	100	1	Auto	F4
Kentucky	2012	2	1	9	16	0	100	1	At-Large	Champs
Kentucky	2019	6	7	10	16	0	99.9	2	At-Large	E8
Kentucky	2025	12	11	10	11	0	99.79	???	???	???
Kentucky	2022	5	9	9	14	0	99.9	2	At-Large	R64
Kentucky	2017	4	3	8	18	0	99.9	2	Auto	E8
Kentucky	2018	18	16	5	14	0	99.5	5	Auto	R16
Kentucky	2011	7	15	9	12	1	99.8	4	Auto	F4
Kentucky	2024	19	19	6	8	1	99.4	3	At-Large	R64
Kentucky	2010	2	2	5	15	0	100	1	Auto	E8
Kentucky	2023	25	33	6	12	3	98.2	6	At-Large	R32
Kentucky	2016	11	14	3	15	3	99.6	4	Auto	R32
Kentucky	2014	17	25	4	14	1	98.2	8	At-Large	Finals
Kentucky	2021	60	135	3	6	1	0	–	Miss	–
Kentucky	2013	57	54	3	6	3	15	–	Miss	–