Kentucky's NCAA Tournament Resume: How high can the Cats climb?

We’re less than two weeks from Selection Sunday and Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament resume is trending way up. After the loss at Georgia on Feb. 11, the Cats were in danger of missing the Big Dance; four wins later, Kentucky is one of the hottest teams in the country and climbing seed lines by the day. Truly a remarkable turnaround.

How high can the Cats climb? Kentucky is now No. 20 in the NET Rankings. Current projections have the Cats as a No. 6 or No. 7 seed. Before we look at their competition, let’s examine Kentucky’s resume and how it can improve even more in the home stretch. The Selection Committee breaks Quads 1 and 2 into two parts to further categorize wins and losses. Quad 1A wins are obviously huge. Kentucky now has three: the wins over Tennessee — which is somehow still No. 3 in the NET — and the win over Mississippi State in Starkville. The Cats can add another one Saturday at Arkansas.

• Quad 1: 5-7 (1 game remaining)
  • Quad 1A: 3-5 (1 game remaining)
  • Quad 1B: 2-2
• Quad 2: 6-0
  • Quad 2A: 3-0
  • Quad 2B: 3-0
• Quad 3: 3-1 (1 game remaining)
• Quad 4: 6-1

Quad 1: 5-7

Quad 1A: Home: 1-15, Neutral: 1-25, Away: 1-40

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
2	01/07/2023	at Alabama	L 52-78
3	01/14/2023	at Tennessee	W 63-56
3	02/18/2023	Tennessee	W 66-54
4	12/17/2022	UCLA (CBS Sports Classic)	L 53-63
6	01/28/2023	Kansas	L 68-77
9	11/20/2022	at Gonzaga	L 72-88
14	03/04/2023	at Arkansas
14	02/07/2023	Arkansas	L 73-88
39	02/15/2023	at Mississippi St.	W 71-68

Quad 1B: Home: 16-30, Neutral: 26-50, Away: 41-75

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
27	01/21/2023	Texas A&M	W 76-67
33	11/15/2022	Michigan St. (Champions Classic)	L 77-86 (2 OT)
49	12/28/2022	at Missouri	L 75-89
64	02/22/2023	at Florida	W 82-74

Quad 2: 6-0

Quad 2A: Home: 31-55, Neutral: 51-75, Away: 76-100

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
36	02/25/2023	Auburn	W 86-54
55	12/04/2022	Michigan (London Showcase)	W 73-69
87	01/24/2023	at Vanderbilt	W 69-53

Quad 2B: Home: 56-75, Neutral: 76-100, Away: 101-135

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
64	02/04/2023	Florida	W 72-67
66	12/10/2022	Yale	W 69-59
130	01/31/2023	at Ole Miss	W 75-66

Quad 3: 3-1

Home: 76-160, Neutral: 101-200, Away: 136-240

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
87	03/01/2023	Vanderbilt
111	11/11/2022	Duquesne	W 77-52
147	01/17/2023	Georgia	W 85-71
147	02/11/2023	at Georgia	L 68-75
155	01/03/2023	LSU	W 74-71

Quad 4: 6-1

Home: 161-357, Neutral: 201-357, Away: 241-357

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
228	11/23/2022	North Florida	W 96-56
235	11/07/2022	Howard	W 95-63
238	01/10/2023	South Carolina	L 68-71
262	11/29/2022	Bellarmine	W 60-41
308	12/31/2022	Louisville	W 86-63
340	11/17/2022	South Carolina St.	W 106-63
359	12/21/2022	Florida A&M	W 88-68

A few team sheet notes…

— Kentucky could add two more Quad 1 wins if Auburn rises into the NET Top 30 or Michigan rises into the NET Top 50. Currently, the Tigers are No. 36. They go to Alabama on Wednesday and host Tennessee to end the season. Michigan remained at No. 55 in the NET after its overtime win vs. Wisconsin yesterday. The Wolverines close the regular season with games at Illinois (NET 34) and Indiana (NET 18).

— The loss at Georgia seems firmly in Quad 3 now. For it to move back into Quad 2, the Bulldogs must move into the NET Top 135. Georgia plays Florida tomorrow night and goes to South Carolina on Saturday.

The Road Ahead, SEC Tournament Scenarios

Wednesday’s game vs. Vanderbilt is in Quad 3. As mentioned, Saturday’s game at Arkansas is Quad 1A. How will the SEC Tournament impact Kentucky’s resume? Here is the Cats’ projected path based on the latest KenPom projections:

In this scenario, Kentucky could add:

• Quarterfinals: vs. Vanderbilt (87)/Georgia (147)/LSU (155) – Quad 2 or 3 W
• Semifinals: vs. Texas A&M (27)/Auburn (36)/Mississippi State (39) – Quad 1 W
• Finals: vs. Alabama (2)/Tennessee (3)/Arkansas (14)/Florida (64)/Missouri (49)/Ole Miss (130)/South Carolina (238)- At least a Quad 1 W

So, if Kentucky runs the table, they would end up with 8 Quad 1 wins, potentially 10 if the wins over Auburn and Michigan move into Quad 1. Crazy considering just two weeks ago, the Cats only had ONE Quad 1 victory. Currently, only three teams in college basketball have ten or more Quad 1 wins: Kansas (15), Baylor (10), and Texas (10). Seven have eight or more. Run the table and we can maybe dream of a No. 4-seed (although history shows the committee doesn’t factor in conference tournament finals).

Comparing Kentucky’s Resume to Other 6/7-Seeds

We’re still waiting on Bracketology updates from the major outlets, but Kentucky is a 6-seed in Bracketville’s update this morning. TeamRankings.com has the Cats as the top 7-seed. Here’s how Kentucky’s resume stacks up against other teams on the 6/7-seed lines:

One metric to keep an eye on: Quad 1 & 2 Record. Kentucky is 11-7 in Quads 1 & 2, which is better than any team on this list, which should help offset the losses in Quads 3 & 4.

Just keep winning.