Kentucky drops in the NET; Where can the Cats build momentum?

As expected, Kentucky fell in the NET Rankings following last night’s 89-75 loss to Missouri. The Cats are now No. 40 in the NET, an eight-spot tumble from yesterday. Kentucky will enter 2023 with zero Quad 1 wins in three opportunities, an ominous sign as we start looking toward March.

In the hours after last night’s loss, I wrote about how the road is going to get much tougher for the Cats. January features three games vs. Top 10 opponents, two on the road. Now that we have new NET rankings, let’s search for paths for this team to put together some momentum because if they don’t, the second half of the season could get really ugly.

Here is Kentucky’s Team Sheet, aka NCAA Tournament resume, as of Dec. 29, 2022.

Quad 1: 0-3

Home: 1-30, Neutral: 1-50, Away: 1-75

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
3	01/14/2023	at Tennessee
3	02/18/2023	Tennessee
5	01/28/2023	Kansas
6	12/17/2022	UCLA (CBS Sports Classic, New York, NY)	L 53-63
7	01/07/2023	at Alabama
11	11/20/2022	at Gonzaga	L 72-88
14	03/04/2023	at Arkansas
14	02/07/2023	Arkansas
30	02/25/2023	Auburn
32	12/28/2022	at Missouri	L 75-89
39	02/15/2023	at Mississippi St.
64	02/22/2023	at Florida

Quad 2: 2-1

Home: 31-75, Neutral: 51-100, Away: 76-135

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
37	12/10/2022	Yale	W 69-59
64	02/04/2023	Florida
67	11/15/2022	Michigan St. (Champions Classic, Indianapolis, IN)	L 77-86 (2 OT)
75	01/03/2023	LSU
81	12/04/2022	Michigan (London Showcase, London)	W 73-69
88	01/31/2023	at Ole Miss
132	02/11/2023	at Georgia

Quad 3: 1-0

Home: 76-160, Neutral: 101-200, Away: 136-240

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
102	01/21/2023	Texas A&M
132	01/17/2023	Georgia
141	11/11/2022	Duquesne	W 77-52
147	03/01/2023	Vanderbilt
147	01/24/2023	at Vanderbilt

Quad 4: 5-0

Home: 161-357, Neutral: 201-357, Away: 241-357

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
260	11/23/2022	North Florida	W 96-56
274	01/10/2023	South Carolina
289	11/29/2022	Bellarmine	W 60-41
293	11/07/2022	Howard	W 95-63
339	11/17/2022	South Carolina St.	W 106-63
343	12/31/2022	Louisville
359	12/21/2022	Florida A&M	W 88-68

As of right now, Kentucky’s best win is vs. Yale, which is ranked No. 37 in the NET. Michigan, Kentucky’s lone Power 5 win, is No. 81. All other wins are in Quads 3 and 4. That does not look like an NCAA Tournament-worthy resume.

The Road Ahead

The obvious question is, where does Kentucky go from here? Here is the schedule with each team’s NET ranking and where the game would currently fall on the team sheet.

Date	Day	Opponent	NET Ranking	Quad
12/31	Sat.	Louisville	343	Q4
1/3	Tue.	LSU	75	Q2
1/7	Sat.	at Alabama	7	Q1
1/10	Tue.	South Carolina	274	Q4
1/14	Sat.	at Tennessee	3	Q1
1/17	Tue.	Georgia	132	Q3
1/21	Sat.	Texas A&M	102	Q3
1/24	Tue.	at Vanderbilt	147	Q3
1/28	Sat.	Kansas	5	Q1
1/31	Tue.	at Ole Miss	88	Q2
2/4	Sat.	Florida	64	Q2
2/7	Tue.	Arkansas	14	Q1
2/11	Sat.	at Georgia	132	Q2
2/15	Wed.	at Mississippi St.	39	Q1
2/18	Sat.	Tennessee	3	Q1
2/22	Wed.	at Florida	64	Q1
2/25	Sat.	Auburn	30	Q1
3/1	Wed.	Vanderbilt	147	Q3
3/4	Sat.	at Arkansas	14	Q1

As you can see, there are NINE Quad 1 games remaining, so the obvious way things get better is to start winning those. Three Quad 1 games come in January vs. teams ranked in the Top 10, two on the road in what will surely be hostile environments. Given last night’s performance at Mizzou, expecting this team to turn it around quickly enough to win even one of those feels like a stretch.

So, let’s go down a level. Kentucky has two Quad 2 games in January, vs. LSU at home on Jan. 3 and at Ole Miss on Jan. 31. Last night’s result aside, I think it’s still a safe bet Kentucky takes care of business vs. Louisville on Saturday to seal up another Quad 4 win. (If that doesn’t happen, we’ve REALLY got things to worry about.) From there, Kentucky can get some momentum rolling with a win over an LSU team that upset Arkansas last night. Put the games at Alabama and Tennessee aside and Kentucky has a Quad 4 game vs. South Carolina and two Quad 3 games vs. Georgia and Texas A&M at home before going to Vanderbilt on Jan. 24 (Quad 3), hosting Kansas (Quad 1), and going to Ole Miss (Quad 2).

Simply put, Kentucky needs to win its Quad 3 (Georgia, Texas A&M, at Vanderbilt) and Quad 4 games (Louisville, South Carolina), pull off at least one Quad 2 win (LSU, at Ole Miss), and hope for the best in the Quad 1 games (at Alabama, at Tennessee, Kansas). Do that and the resume doesn’t get worse, the team hopefully starts clicking, and we can start thinking about the NCAA Tournament. Don’t, and, well, we’ll get there if we get there.

That LSU game on Jan. 3 now feels huge.