Kentucky holding as No. 3 seed in Bracketology; Oklahoma on the bubble

by:Tyler Thompson•about 9 hours•

MrsTylerKSR

Kentucky players huddle during a timeout (L to R: Otega Oweh, Travis Perry, Amari Williams, Koby Brea, Ansley Almonor) - Photo by Dr. Michael Huang, Kentucky Sports Radio

With less than 20 days until Selection Sunday, Kentucky is still trending as a No. 3 seed in NCAA Tournament projections. To stay there, the Cats need to take care of business against Oklahoma, another bubble team desperate for a big win.

Kentucky is the No. 3 seed in the South Region in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology. Lunardi has the Cats playing No. 14 seed James Madison in the first round in Providence for the chance to face No. 6 seed Kansas and No. 11 seed Ohio State in the second round. That’s a loaded scenario. A chance to knock out the Jayhawks or avenge December’s loss to the Buckeyes for a spot in the Sweet 16 in Atlanta? If the Cats make it, they could face a slew of familiar names, including No. 2 seed Michigan State. Auburn, Saturday’s opponent, is the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament and atop the South Region.

Auburn, Duke, Florida, and Alabama are Lunardi’s No. 1 seeds, with Tennessee on the No. 2 line. Lunardi has 13 SEC teams in, three on the right side of the bubble. Texas, which beat Kentucky on Feb. 15, got one of the last four byes. Oklahoma and Arkansas are among the last four teams in. Georgia is one of the next four teams out. In this hypothetical, the Sooners would play Nebraska in the No. 11 seed play-in game in the Midwest Region and Arkansas is slotted against Wake Forest in the No. 11 seed in the West Region.

Obviously, a win over Kentucky would help Oklahoma’s resume. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Sooners a 55% chance of making the tournament. Their win over Mississippi State on Saturday boosted their chances by 10%. The Cats let a bubble team beat them ten days ago at Texas; with four games left, they can’t afford to make that mistake again.

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The Athletic’s Joe Rexrode also has Kentucky as the No. 3 seed in the South Region, with a potentially LOADED rematch in the second round. Clemson is the No. 6 seed in the South, playing the winner of the No. 11 seed Ohio State vs. Arkansas play-in game. Shew. Kansas is a No. 5 seed in Rexrode’s projections, putting them in the top half of the South Region. Iowa State is the No. 2 seed in the South and Oklahoma the No. 10 seed, one of Rexrode’s last four byes.

Kentucky is in the middle of the No. 3 seed line on Bracket Matrix, which aggregates all 100+ NCAA Tournament projections on the internet. The Cats are the No. 11 overall team behind Iowa State (No. 9) and Michigan State (No. 10). Texas Tech is No. 12. St. John’s is the top No. 4 seed at No. 13.

Plenty can happen in the final four games of the season and conference tournaments. Kentucky has some big opportunities vs. Auburn and Missouri but it’s more important to win the games you’re supposed to, starting tomorrow at Oklahoma.