Kentucky vs. North Carolina in First Four trending in Bracketology

Back in October, both Kentucky and North Carolina were ranked in the top five of the Preseason AP Poll. If there was talk of a potential matchup in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, it almost certainly centered around the Elite Eight or Final Four. Two of college basketball’s bluebloods squaring off, led by two of the sport’s elite bigs, Oscar Tshiebwe and Armando Bacot.

What a difference four months make. Now, neither team is ranked in the AP Poll. With seven games left in the regular season, both are perched precariously on the NCAA Tournament bubble, at major risk of not making the Big Dance. A showdown in the First Four is trending in the latest Bracketology, a far cry from our Final Four dreams. (By the way, if that happens, we are sending Fake Barney, who, even though he married a UNC fan, hates the Tar Heels with the fire of a thousand suns.)

ESPN

Joe Lunardi still has Kentucky and North Carolina in the “Last Four In” in his Bracketology update this morning, dedicating a paragraph to the two team’s resumes.

“It’s not every day that we look at the ‘Last Four In’ list and see names like North Carolina and Kentucky. Then again, it’s not every day that two of the top three winningest programs in college basketball history are a combined 2-15 against Quadrant 1 foes. And one of those Q1 victories — North Carolina over Ohio State — came against a team that entered play Thursday with a losing record. This is, by any measure, not good for a pair of bluebloods who were projected for the Final Four. Instead, the First Four might be their actual destination. Wow.”

Lunardi didn’t pull the trigger on a Kentucky vs. North Carolina First Four game just yet. Instead, he pairs the 11-seed Cats with 11-seed New Mexico, and the 11-seed Tar Heels with 11-seed Texas A&M.

The Athletic

The Athletic’s Brian Bennett went there, pairing Kentucky and North Carolina in Dayton. The winner would advance to play 6-seed Illinois in Des Moines in the South Region.

Heading into the Georgia game, Kentucky’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament are 60% on TeamRankings and 56% on Bart Torvik.

Kentucky and North Carolina’s resumes

What if comes down to Kentucky OR North Carolina for a spot in the First Four? Here are their current resumes:

Team	Kentucky	North Carolina
NET	40	44
KenPom	40	36
BPI	22	32
Sagarin	35	33
KPI	42	47
T-Rank	55	43
SOS	38	27
OOC SOS	86	15
SOR	44	25
Record	16-8	15-9
Home	12-3	10-1
Away	3-3	2-6
Neutral	1-2	3-2
Quad 1	1-7	1-8
Quad 2	6-0	5-1
Quad 3	3-0	4-0
Quad 4	6-1	5-0

It is kind of amazing that combined, the two preseason top-five teams are 2-15 in Quad 1. As you know, Kentucky’s lone Quad 1 victory is over Tennessee in Knoxville, one of the best wins in all of college basketball. North Carolina’s is over Ohio State in the CBS Sports Classic, a neutral site. The Buckeyes aren’t projected to make the tournament.

Kentucky may have the advantage over North Carolina in Quad 1, but the Cats have something the Tar Heels do not: a Quad 4 loss. North Carolina is 5-0 in Quad 4; in fact, their only loss outside of Quad 1 is vs. Pitt, which sits comfortably in Quad 2. Kentucky’s loss to South Carolina remains an ugly blemish on the resume.

If you look at both teams’ remaining schedules, Kentucky has the better chance to make up some ground. The Cats have four Quad 1 games remaining, including vs. Tennessee (NET No. 3) and at Arkansas (NET No. 23). The Tar Heels have three Quad 1 games left, the toughest of which is against Virginia (NET No. 14) at home.

Kentucky (4 Quad 1 Games Remaining)

• Feb. 11 (Q2): at Georgia
• Feb. 15 (Q1): at Mississippi State
• Feb. 18 (Q1): vs. No. 6 Tennessee
• Feb. 22 (Q1): at Florida
• Feb. 25 (Q2): vs. Auburn
• Mar. 1 (Q3): vs. Vanderbilt
• Mar. 4 (Q1): at Arkansas

North Carolina (3 Quad 1 Games Remaining)

• Feb. 11 (Q2): vs. Clemson
• Feb. 13 (Q2): vs. No. 19 Miami
• Feb. 19 (Q1): at No. 22 NC State
• Feb. 22 (Q3): at Notre Dame
• Feb. 25 (Q1): vs. No. 8 Virginia
• Feb. 27 (Q3): at Florida State
• Mar. 4 (Q1): vs. Duke

Of course, this exercise doesn’t matter if Kentucky loses to Georgia tomorrow. The Bulldogs are No. 129 in the NET; if they fall below No. 135, that game slips from Quad 2 to Quad 3. A loss would be devastating.

Just get back to winning.