Kentucky Oaks 151: Picks and Undercard Highlights

Churchill Downs will be painted pink for the first Friday in May. It’s a great day to enjoy a lily, celebrate kicking cancer’s ass, and enjoy some horse racing. The Survivors Parade on the track celebrates those who have gone toe-to-toe with cancer before the best three-year-old fillies race for the garland of lilies in the Kentucky Oaks.

Upon a quick glance, this horse is dominated by one dominant filly, Good Cheer. Undefeated in six starts, including three at Churchill Downs, this filly could assert itself as a superhorse with a powerhouse win on Friday.

Once you take a closer look at the field, this isn’t a one-horse race. Good Cheer has a few formidable foes that could derail her quest for a Kentucky Oaks victory.

The Kentucky Oaks Field

No. 8 Five G was scratched Thursday afternoon.

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The Pick

Good Cheer drew the No. 11 post, an ideal spot for a stalker with tactical speed. The pace will be set by a few speed fillies to the inside. I expect La Cara to be near the front from the jump, with Simply Joking and Tenma fighting for the lead.

The real X-factor in this race is Quietside. Despite drawing the outside post, she won a Grade III in a 13-horse field while breaking from the No. 12 post. If she can get past Good Cheer off the jump, it could make things interesting.

Ultimately, Good Cheer is the most battle-tested filly who has proven she can win in a variety of ways, including on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. I think she’ll end up running away with it, while the only true closer, Quickick, makes a late run to hit the board.

The Trifecta Bet: Key 6 Good Cheer, over 5 Quickick, 7 La Cara, and 2 Simply Joking ($9)
Oaks-Derby Double: 6 Good Cheer over All (and pray for a long shot at $20)

Kentucky Oaks Undercard Highlights

Race 6: Alysheba
4 Fierceness was the morning line favorite for last year’s Kentucky Derby and was a complete no-show. After that, he dominated the division, winning the Jim Dandy, Travers, and nearly the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Will he dominate in his 4-year-old debut?

3 Hall of Fame won at Churchill Downs last fall, and his speed has improved in every race since. 2 Locked won by 8 lengths last time out in a Grade I, ensuring that it won’t be an easy stroll the the Winner’s Circle for Mike Repole’s Fierceness.

Race 7: La Troienne
Super Filly 2 Thorpedo Anna returns to the place that made her a star. Last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner won six of her seven starts as a three-year-old, only falling to the boys in a second-place finish in the Travers Stakes. She has been impressive, but is she over the hill?

You can’t toss her out of the multi-race wagers, but this reminds me of Shedaresthedevil’s loss on the Oaks undercard the year after she won the day’s showcase race. Chad Brown has two fillies that could do it, 4 Raging Sea and 5 Randomized.

Roush’s Favorite Play of the Day
Race 8: 2 Gimme a Nother is trained by Graham Motion with Jose Ortiz aboard for its second start in North America. It’s in a position to move forward with a nice spot near the rail.

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