Brad Cox Aims for Oaks Treble with Three Runners

It’s been just five short years since Brad Cox captured his first Kentucky Oaks with the sensational Monomoy Girl.  2018 was also the year of his first Grade 1 victory, also courtesy of that same daughter of Tapizar.  Over the last 5+ years, the Cox barn has amassed over $117 million in earnings, 9 Breeders’ Cup victories and two Eclipse awards as the country’s Most Outstanding Trainer.  His two eldest sons have become an integral part of the training operation that has arguably become the most dominant force in the sport.  A quick look at the owners of Cox’s Oaks entrants – Ike and Dawn Thrash, LNJ Foxwoods and Clearsky Farms, and the mighty Godolphin – tells the story of just how far he has come in the last half decade.  Prior to 2018, there were far more claiming horses in the barn than graded stakes participants.  Today the shed row of the Cox barn is graced with some of the most regally bred horse flesh on the planet.  The support of those benefactors was well-earned by Louisville’s native son, and despite all the success, he remains humble and every bit as driven as he was prior to reaching the pinnacle of the sport.  This afternoon he will send out three solid chances to bring the Oaks lilies back to his barn for the 3^rd time in the last six years.

We’ll preview the 149^th Running of the Kentucky Oaks along with the five other races that make up the Derby City Pick 6 right here:

Race 6 – The Grade 3 Modesty

An enticing group of nine older fillies and mares will take to the Louisville lawn for this nine-furlong contest.  Sweet Dani Girl is most likely to set the pace from her rail draw.  She’s feasted on Florida-bred competition in 2 of her last 3 trips to the post, winning both in gate-to-wire fashion, but she’s been far less formidable in open company.  A pair of European-bred fillies trained by Chad Brown figure to take significant dollars in the win pool, and for good reason.  They are the only two Grade 1 winners in the field.  A slight edge goes to Shantisara in this spot as she has the benefit of two prior runs this year and is also perfect in 3 attempts at the distance.  An upset of Brown’s dynamic duo might be most likely to come from Brendan Walsh, who sends out two as well.  Lady Rockstar owns a win over the Churchill turf, albeit in an allowance race, as does New Year’s Eve, who took down the Grade 2 Edgewood on this card last year.  Didia is perfect in 3 starts since being imported from Argentina.  The daughter of Orpen is 7 for 8 lifetime on the weeds and prepped for this with a victory over the aforementioned New Year’s Eve in the Tom Benson Memorial at the Fair Grounds.

Must Use – Shantisara

Backups – McKulick, New Year’s Eve, Didia

Race 7 – The Grade 2 Eight Belles

Munnys Gold is certainly stepping up in class, but her Beyer figures simply tower over this field.  Her lowest figure in 3 races is better than any of her 9 opponents.  She has the speed to control the pace from the outset, and if the figure makers are right, this one is as simple as sitting back and seeing how good this daughter of Munnings really is.  Red Carpet Ready is most likely to try and press the pace, which just doesn’t seem like a good idea.  If she’s able to throw the favorite off her game, Oliva Twist could ultimately play the roll of spoiler.  She should appreciate the turn back in distance and a fast track.

Must Use – Munnys Gold

Backups – Olivia Twist, Accede

Race 8 – The Unbridled Sidney

Caravel has won 3 in a row, including a stylish success in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, and 6 of 9 total since transferring to the Brad Cox barn.  She certainly owns the controlling speed in an unusual grass sprint where there doesn’t appear to be much early pace.  In addition, this is a fairly substantial class drop for the daughter of Mizzen Mast as she has competed in graded company for 7 of her last 8 starts.  Anything can happen in a horse race, but the odds of an upset in this spot look rather bleak.

Must Use – Caravel

Race 9 – The Grade 1 La Troienne

One should expect a strong field with three-quarters of a million dollars and top-level black type on the line, and ten older fillies and mares that fit the bill will enter the gate to contest this Oaks card mainstay.  Society is 2 for 2 at Churchill and 2 for 2 at the distance, and she will almost certainly control this event from the time they spring the latch.  The problem is that she has been in poor form since her Grade 1 triumph in the Cotillion last September, finishing well up the track in both the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and most recently in the Madison at Keeneland.  Perhaps a return to Louisville will bring back her Grade 1 form.  Secret Oath returns to the scene of her brightest moment when she took home the blanket of lilies one year ago.  She has been very impressive in her two outings this year, splitting hard-fought battles with that top notch filly Clairiere in Hot Springs.  The Wayne Lukas trainee will be tough deny in her 3^rd start of the form cycle.  A Mo Reay is unbeaten since transferring to the care of Brad Cox.  The Uncle Mo lass became a Grade 1 winner in her last start when she defeated the re-opposing Desert Dawn and Pauline’s Pearl in the Beholder Mile at Santa Anita.  Played Hard is another horse for the course having hit the board in 7 of 8 runs at Churchill Downs.  The Into Mischief mare has taken down 3 of her last 4 starts, and 2 of those have come in graded stakes company over this surface.  Her work tab says she’s ready for her first deployment of the year.

Must Use – Secret Oath, A Mo Reay

Backups – Society, Played Hard

Race 10 – The Grade 2 Edgewood

An absolutely wide-open renewal of this grassy Oaks day tradition for sophomore fillies precedes the feature.  Papilio was impressive gobbling up ground late to capture the Appalachian at Keeneland last month.  A tepid pace looks likely.  Expect either of the Cox entrants to take command early and see how far they can carry this evenly matched field.  Mission of Joy was unbeaten in 3 winter starts at Tampa.  This will certainly be a step up in class for her.  Revalita just missed the board in her stateside debut for Chad Brown.  She should improve with that outing under her belt.

Must Use – Papilio, Cairo Consort, Revalita

Backups – Preliminary, Mission of Joy, Heavenly Sunday, Flashy Gem

Race 11 – The Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks

Many pundits see this as another Cox coronation, and you’ll get no disagreement here.  Wet Paint has been dominant in Hot Springs over the winter, and her form was flattered when Defining Purpose took the only Grade 1 in the division this year at Keeneland (the Ashland).  The Blame filly does come from well off the pace, so the trip will matter and one can wonder whether there will be enough pace to set up her late run.  Stablemate Botanical may well look to provide some early lick as she employed a moderate tempo at the head of affairs in two of her winter romps over the synthetic surface at Turfway.  Cox clearly thought her style was suited to grass, but she’s given him no choice but to try her on the main track.  Both her morning drills over the surface and her pedigree suggest she should take to it with aplomb.  Flying Connection looks like the most likely pacesetter.  She’s making a stiff hike in class, but appears to be improving at the right time.  Wonder Wheel, last year’s Champion Juvenile Filly, is perfect in two prior trips to the Churchill starting gate, but is yet to return to her championship form this season.  A return to more familiar surroundings may snap her out of the recent funk.  Southlawn has been impressive in her two most recent starts, most recently finding the wire first in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks.  The daughter of Pioneerof the Nile blazed a bullet :58 and 4 over the local strip in her penultimate drill for this test.  Affirmative Lady was clearly well thought of early as she was runner-up by just a neck in the Grade 2 Demoiselle as a maiden.  The Arrogate filly finally broke through for her maiden score in February, and then backed that up with another trip to the winner’s circle in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks.  She appears to be heading in the right direction quickly for Graham Motion.  Pretty Mischievous was the best filly in New Orleans over the winter, at least until Southlawn came to town.  The Brendan Walsh lass is 2 for 3 at Churchill and posted a nice half-mile drill over the surface last week.  Adding blinkers from the outside post, she could be another that contributes to the early pace.

Must Use:  Wet Paint, Botanical

Backups: Southlawn, Affirmative Lady, Flying Connection