What We Know: Kentucky Offense

The 2023 Kentucky offense had very high expectations. In the offseason, the Wildcats went out and re-hired Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator Liam Coen to call plays. Kentucky also landed prized quarterback transfer Devin Leary, spent a strong amount of scholarship capital on rebuilding the offensive line, landed a 1,000-yard rusher in the SEC, and returned two star young receivers.

Entering the season, offensive line play was the dark cloud hanging over this program, but through seven games, that has not been what held back this offense. Expected strengths have turned into weaknesses. There have been some pleasant surprises and some surprising disappointments.

With five power conference games remaining on the schedule, Coen and the rest of Kentucky’s offensive staff have a lot to figure out before game prep for Tennessee officially begins next week. Before we start digging into the Vols, let’s take a step back and acknowledge what we know about Kentucky’s offense entering the stretch run.

1. The rushing attack is lethal

Perhaps the biggest surprise of this season is just how good Vanderbilt tailback transfer Ray Davis has been through seven games. The redshirt senior was named a midseason All-American by multiple outlets. Davis leads the SEC in rushing yards (781), rushing touchdowns (eight), rushes of 20-plus yards (eight), and rushes of 30-plus yards (six). His explosive run rate (22.5%) is one of the best marks in college football. Davis is on track to rush for over 1,400 yards and has a great chance to bring home All-SEC honors, but he is not the only one contributing to the run game.

JuTahn McClain and Demie Sumo-Karngbaye are splitting time as RB2. The duo has combined to rush for 262 yards on 6.9 yards per rush. Their explosive run rate (18.4%) is not far behind Davis. The Wildcats have averaged at least five yards per rush in every game outside of Georgia. The Wildcats rolled up over 200 non-sack rushing yards against both Florida and Missouri. Liam Coen‘s offense can run that rock.

Kentucky currently ranks No. 5 in yards per rush (5.82) and No. 9 in rushing EPA/play (0.18). Efficiency is lacking somewhat (No. 47 in success rate) but this ground game can land haymakers. Coen has done a good job scheming up this rushing attack as we’ve even seen wide receivers, tight ends, and designed QB runs get inserted into the mix. Yet, this offense ranks No. 83 in run play percentage (49.4%).

We could see that change. Kentucky is once again a strong run team. Don’t be surprised if the Cats get run-heavy out of the bye week.

2. The passing game has been a massive disappointment

Through seven games, the numbers and production of the Kentucky passing game have been atrocious. Devin Leary threw for 3,433 yards in his last full college football season. The NC State transfer is on pace to throw for nearly 1,000 yards less (2,557) this year. Barion Brown and Dane Key combined to record 87 receptions for 1,147 yards and 10 touchdowns as true freshmen. The duo is currently on a 74 receptions. for 1,036 yards and 6 touchdowns pace.

No matter how you slice it, the passing game has stunk for Kentucky this season.

In SEC play, the Wildcats are completing only 47.5 percent of their passes on 5.2 yards per attempt. Kentucky is third in the Power Five in drop rate. A ballyhooed tight end room has only produced a 44.8 percent catch rate on 29 targets. Nothing is working for the Wildcats right now in the throw game.

Kentucky currently sits at No. 83 in QB rating, No. 86 in yards per attempt, No. 105 in passing EPA/play, No. 114 in passing success rate, and No. 120 in completion percentage. This program once again has a passing game problem.

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Some solutions must be figured out during the bye week.

3. The offensive line is finding its way

Saturday’s performance against Missouri was not the best for the Big Blue Wall. Zach Yenser‘s group gave up a season-high pressure rate (48.5%) and that led to a ton of offensive struggles in the second half. However, it’s impossible to say this group hasn’t exceeded expectations.

The Big Blue Wall is back to playing winning football, and they’re doing it while battling some injuries.

Ohio State transfer Ben Christman was expected to compete for a backup role on the line. Unfortunately, the redshirt sophomore was lost for the season due to a knee injury during fall camp. In game one, guard depth took a big hit when Kenneth Horsey suffered what appeared to be a serious knee injury. The super senior was forced to sit out five games. West Virginia transfer Dylan Ray has now started six consecutive games at guard. That has not slowed down this line.

At right tackle, Jeremy Flax had to miss a game, and that allowed USC transfer Courtland Ford to get a start under his belt. After some snapping issues, Kentucky made a position switch sliding Eli Cox down to center and Jager Burton out to right guard. That has slowed this group down. Flax and Northern Illinois transfer Marques Cox is giving the Wildcats good play at tackle and that has really made an impact on this offense.

Kentucky is far from being one of the best offensive lines in the SEC. There have been some untimely penalties throughout the season. There is still a lot of room for growth, but there is no denying that this unit is playing much better football, and the Wildcats have actually developed some depth this season.