Kentucky Offense Must Improve on Third Down and Score More Red Zone Touchdowns in 2023

There’s plenty of offseason left to go into a deep-dive statistical comparison of Rich Scangarello’s one season at Kentucky compared to Liam Coen’s 2021 season, if that’s even necessary. Several analyses have been written and discussed on this platform that thoroughly outline the Cats’ 2022 offensive drop and theoretical reasoning that led to the decline. 

There are two stat line categories that are non-negotiable areas for improvement for Liam Coen Part II: Third down efficiency and touchdowns in the Red Zone. Let’s get into it, shall we? 

Kentucky Third Down Efficiency

Liam Coen’s 2021 offense finished the season ranked No. 5 in the nation and second in the SEC after converting 76 of 150 attempts on third down. Kentucky’s 50.67% on the money down was an obvious team strength that helped to propel UK to a 10-3 season and a win over Iowa in the Citrus Bowl. When Stoops needed to extend drives, close out games, stretch a lead, and even play from behind; his offense frequently answered the call. 

2022 was a different story. The Wildcats moved the chains on third down a mere 34.12% of the time. That number was good, or bad enough, to fall to 108th in the nation and be rank last in the SEC. Scangarello’s offense converted 58-of-170 for the year. Frustrations boiled over both inside and outside of the program. 

Why? 

Two obvious reasons for the 2022 decline were a struggling offensive line and unimaginative play calling. It must be noted that the 2021 Cats featured two NFL draftees up front in Luke Fortner and Darian Kinnard to go along with a seasoned crew that leaned on a physical culture that consistently moved the line of scrimmage forward. Last year’s OL was patched together with players at new positions and obvious struggles at tackle. The cold hard truth is that the OL simply did not meet program standards. 

The second factor was the play-calling. Predictability greatly reduced the Wildcats’ chances on money downs. Defenses appeared to be better prepared to defend UK’s intentions. Running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. also missed the first four games of the season which didn’t exactly help the Cats get out of the gate strong. 

Frustrations were abounding. Changes had to be made and they were. 

Touchdowns in the Red Zone 

Offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s return to Kentucky has led to excitement within the Big Blue Nation, season ticket purchasers, recruiting circles, and with current players. The former LA Rams’ play-caller was vastly successful in his first stay in Lexington. A portion of his triumphs took place inside the twenty-yard line. UK scored 39 touchdowns out of 46 Red Zone trips for a ratio of 72.22%. Finishing drives with end zone celebrations were a common occurrence in 2021. That was not the case a year ago. 

Last season’s offense was a disappointment to say the least. Again, that assessment has been rehashed, analyzed, and discussed in length on this and every other website. The Red Zone struggles were the culmination of frustration for all parties involved. The Wildcats dropped to scoring touchdowns on 53.19% of Red Zone trips. The Rich Scangarello led unit scored just 25 touchdowns out of 47 attempts. Adding frustration to the equation was a struggling field goal team. The Cats’ woes were also displayed on the scoreboard and in the W/L column. 

As you can imagine, scoring offense suffered. UK averaged 32.3 points per game in 2021. That number ranked 5th in the SEC and 35th in the country. UK fell to 20.4 points per outing last season which ranked last in the conference and 112th in the nation. Again, changes had to be made and they were. 

Why? 

Copy and paste third down struggles to this portion of the article. The offensive line produced very little push and play-calling lacked imagination to say the least. Turnover problems also reared their ugly head on far too many occasions. 

A Look Ahead to 2023

The first is obvious, Liam Coen again calls Lexington home. I can foresee both statistical categories mentioned in this article improving by that fact alone. Coen’s first stop in Lexington produced positive results. Quarterback Will Levis thrived in the play-caller’s scheme, as did receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. 

Coen inherits key pieces to the passing game which are much more inspiring than he did in 2021. Sophomore WR’s Dane Key and Barion Brown starred as true freshmen. Virginia Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson started last year strong before tapering off at the season’s end. A group of promising tight ends also bring hope. This collection includes Jordan Dingle, Josh Kattus, Izayah Cummings and Brenden Bates. 

Veteran offensive linemen have also been shuffled back to their original positions. Guard turned center Eli Cox is well, back at guard. All-SEC guard Kenneth Horsey kicked out to play left tackle out of necessity last season is back inside. 2022 starting guard Jager Burton is now at center, which many are projecting to be his intended spot. In all, the offensive line is rebuilt and should be improved. A great deal of the Wildcats’ hopeful improvement on third down and in the Red Zone relies on the group of five’s return to its days as the Big Blue Wall.

New Additions to the Kentucky Offense Via the Transfer Portal 

It all starts up front. The offensive line added key pieces via the portal at tackle in USC’s Courtland Ford on the right side and Northern Illinois’ Marques Cox on the left. Both tackle spots struggled in 2022 and required an immediate upgrade. Mark Stoops did just that. Guard Ben Christman comes to Lexington from Ohio State and joins former Alabama guard Tanner Bowles to give Coen much valued interior depth. The hope is that UK can return to its tradition of rotating offensive linemen on a regular basis during games. This was standard operating procedure under legendary coach John Schlarman. 

More strategic transfers were brought in to help remedy UK’s offensive woes including the unit’s most important position. Former North Carolina State quarterback Devin Leary is a steady veteran and considered one of the top transfers in the nation. The signal caller has played in 30 collegiate games with 26 starts. His 17-9 record as a starter should be an indication of what he brings to the table. He’s thrown 62 career touchdown passes compared to just 16 interceptions. Coen will count on that ratio and the veteran’s experience to lead his 2023 offense. 

Vanderbilt’s Ray Davis was another key addition. The running back torched the Cats for 129 yards off 26 carries in the Commodore’s shocking win in Lexington a year ago. The 1,000-yard rusher is a physical back that has proven to be an adequate pass catcher out of the backfield. Devin Leary’s teammate Demie Sumo-Karngbaye is another RB addition that could factor as well. 

What Does This All Mean? 

Frustrations surrounding Kentucky’s 2022 offense was palpable across many levels. It could be felt with players, coaches, and certainly fans throughout a disappointing 7-6 season. Mark Stoops made a coordinator change and strategically added a bunch of transfers at positions of need to join a solid group of returning offensive contributors. 

Can Liam Coen fix the Cats’ third down and Red Zone problems? My answer is yes.