What we know heading into Kentucky vs. Ole Miss

Kentucky is hitting the road for the first time this season. Awaiting the Wildcats will be No. 6 Ole Miss on homecoming in Oxford. A sold-out crowd where Ole Miss fans will “stripe the stadium” should create quite the atmosphere in Week 5. The challenge will be difficult for the road team.

After a week full of previewing the big SEC matchup, now feels like the proper time to take a step back and recap what we learned this week. What does Kentucky need to do to pull the upset? Let’s dive in.

Hanging around in the explosive play battle

South Carolina destroyed Kentucky in the explosive play battle. Georgia scored a touchdown because of explosive plays. The splash plays often determine the winner and loser. That makes the matchup with Ole Miss a tricky one.

Lane Kiffin‘s offense leads college football in plays of 20-plus yards (37) and ranks second in plays of 30-plus yards (17) and 40-plus yards (nine). The Rebels will create chunk plays on everyone this season. Kentucky’s defense will need to limit these the best they can and try to prevent any explosive play touchdowns rather than making Ole Miss earn their points in the red zone.

Even if Kentucky accomplishes that explosive play goal on defense, the Wildcats will need the offense to hold up their end of the bargain. Bush Hamdan‘s offense enters the week ranked No. 103 in EPA/play. Despite having an efficient rushing attack (No. 7 in success rate), Kentucky is struggling to find explosives.

To pull the upset, the road team must find some chunk plays to move the football and score points. Kentucky likely will not beat Ole Miss in the explosive play department but they need to make sure the battle is close to a draw.

Dictating pace of play will be critical

Ole Miss runs a spread offense that wants to hit the tempo gas pedal and turn football games into basketball on grass with a lot of points and possessions. Kentucky runs a ball control offense that wants to shorten the game. The Wildcats must get Ole Miss to play out of their comfort zone.

Whenever facing any spread team, defenses must eat some punches early and ride out the early wave. That will be critical for Kentucky early in this game. The defense must find some stops early and not give up any explosive play touchdowns. The offense must find some success and dictate the terms of the game.

This means getting ahead of the chains, converting on third down, and keeping the Ole Miss offense off the field. Kentucky’s run game will be asked to keep the offense ahead of the chains. The Wildcats must find explosives but those will likely have to come off of an offense that is staying ahead of schedule and forcing an Ole Miss defense to take some risks to win on early downs.

Kentucky must establish the run and find some completions to win the important pace-of-play battle in a matchup between two different football philosophies.

Winning the turnover battle

Perhaps the most impressive thing to come out of Kentucky’s 13-12 loss to Georgia was that the Wildcats were minus-one in the turnover column and arguably out-played UGA on a snap-to-snap basis. That seemed like an impossible task heading into that Week 3 matchup.

So what happens when Kentucky wins the turnover battle against a power conference opponent?

Kentucky has won the turnover battle just twice in their last nine games against power conference competition. That must change. Kentucky’s offense should be able to shrink this game and stealing a possession or two with a takeaway will limit opportunities for the big-play Ole Miss offense.

Winning the turnover battle could give Kentucky a big edge and is likely needed now and in the future.