KSR Staff Predictions: No. 14 Kentucky at No. 25 Ole Miss

More than once this season, Kentucky has bounced back from a disappointing loss by beating a ranked team on the road. Tonight, the Cats will try it again vs. No. 25 Ole Miss in Oxford (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Kentucky has lost three of the last four; Ole Miss has lost four of the last five. The Rebels are 16-6 and 5-4 in SEC play, all four SEC losses coming to ranked teams. The most recent was to No. 1 Auburn by ten at home. The Rebels are one of the best teams in the country at taking care of the basketball, ranked No. 3 nationally in turnover margin. Meanwhile, Kentucky will be without Lamont Butler for the third straight game. Vegas likes Ole Miss by 4.5 points, and all the computer models are going with the Rebels as well.

Which team will avoid its second straight loss? The KSR crew is ready to weigh in.

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Tyler Thompson

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to predict what this Kentucky team will do (as evidenced by my last four game predictions being incorrect). If there’s any consistency with this team’s inconsistency, it’s performing well as an underdog on the road. The Cats are 4-0 as an underdog away from Rupp Arena. Tonight, I think they’ll make it 5-0, eager to get the taste of the Arkansas loss out of their mouths.

Being without Lamont Butler against an impressive Ole Miss backcourt will be tough, but I think Pope and his players will be motivated to prove themselves after Saturday night. A healthier Andrew Carr will get more minutes to help Amari Williams out down low and Koby Brea will bounce back after going 2-8 from the floor vs. Arkansas. As we’ve said a lot this season, it could come down to whether or not Kentucky is making its shots; the fanbase needs a win so badly, I’m going to say they will.

Score: Kentucky 78, Ole Miss 75

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Nick Roush

Ole Miss has a Top-15 defense that forces turnovers. Chris Beard has built a long, athletic team that consistently pressures the ball. That’s not exactly the kind of team you want to face when you are playing without your point guards.

Rather than getting deep into the weeds with the matchup, let’s just stick with the trends. Kentucky is bad as a favorite and great as an underdog. Just when you thought you were out, they pull you back in. Kentucky has been an underdog four times this season, all away from Rupp Arena. They won every one of those games. One of those was against another Top 25 team from Mississippi who plays good defense but struggles to score.

I can’t quite figure out this team’s pension for playing well as an underdog. I just hope it doesn’t end tonight. Big Blue Nation could use a heavy dose of Ws after last Saturday.

Score: Kentucky 79, Ole Miss 73

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Zack Geoghegan

Arkansas’ ball pressure rattled Kentucky’s secondary ball handlers in Saturday’s loss. Ole Miss likes to do similar stuff. The Rebels are second among SEC teams in conference play in steal percentage. Their overall defense ranks second in the league. Ole Miss has several guards who can take advantage of a Kentucky backcourt without a true floor general. They take care of the ball and turn you over on the other end — something UK has not been the best at with Butler out. Chris Beard’s team should have the edge in that area.

But I’ll narrowly give Mark Pope’s team the nod in the frontcourt, although Malik Dia will be a tough matchup. Amari Williams has been playing great basketball as of late. Andrew Carr’s back injury appears to finally be trending in the right direction. Mix in a productive Ansley Almonor plus some backup minutes for Brandon Garrison and the recipe will be there. But to make that happen, a tighter rotation might be needed. Williams needs 30+ minutes with Garrison filling in when necessary. That goes for every position, too. While we love the Kentucky boys, and Collin Chandler brought some defensive juice against the Razorbacks, a 6-7 man rotation is what I would like to see.

Will that happen? Fatigue has been explained as the reason why it hasn’t so far. Everyone in the country is tired right now. It’s time to play the best players most of the game. If this contest were at home, I’d side with the ‘Cats. But I fear another rock fight is coming.

Score: Ole Miss 74, Kentucky 71

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Jack Pilgrim

This game terrifies me. Ole Miss forces a ton of turnovers and doesn’t turn the ball over. Down Lamont Butler and Kerr Kriisa, Kentucky now turns the ball over a ton and doesn’t force turnovers. The Rebels aren’t known for scoring, don’t shoot extremely well and are actually pretty bad on the glass, but, man, the No. 3 turnover margin and top-15 offensive (No. 3) and defensive (No. 12) turnover rates are tough pills to swallow. Jaxson Robinson has stepped up at point guard and Amari Williams is playing some special basketball right now as a playmaking five, but can they handle this type of pressure?

For some bizarre reason I don’t quite understand, this is where the Wildcats have thrived. Backs against the wall, underdog in a hostile environment, coming off a loss? Go win the game. Hit big shots, execute, make stops, survive. They’ve done it before, and after getting punked at home, this group is going to come in with a similar edge ready to make another statement.

Kentucky has a serious size advantage in the frontcourt and Williams could have another field day — plus I like the breakthrough potential for Andrew Carr after finally getting his back injury under control. Take care of business down low and hit the double-digit mark from three, leave with another gutsy road win. The trend continues in Oxford.

Score: Kentucky 77, Ole Miss 74

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Drew Franklin

I’m ice-cold picking Kentucky games. I could not be any colder if I were picking them from the walk-in freezer at KSBar. I picked the Cats to beat Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Alabama, all losses, while picking losses against Mississippi State and Tennessee, the two best wins in SEC play.

So, I will ride the frozen wave as long as it is still a trend. Give me Ole Miss to win this one. Lock of the century. There is no way the Rebels will lose this home game with their backs against the wall, having lost three of four games in SEC play. Koby Brea and Jaxson Robinson won’t make a 3 for the Wildcats. Ole Miss will score 80+ points going the other way. Just a terrible night for Kentucky ahead. There is no scenario that Kentucky can win this game. Rebels win. I have no doubt. Hotty Toddy or whatever.

Score: Ole Miss 84, Kentucky 79

Kentucky vs. Ole Miss: How to Watch, Listen

• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• Television: ESPN (Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes, Molly McGrath)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 132 or 190
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.