Kentucky trending toward No. 3-seed in SEC Tournament

Hold serve at home and Kentucky will be the No. 3 seed in the SEC Tournament, playing the winner of the No. 11/No. 14 seed vs. the No. 6 seed in the late game on Friday night.

Kentucky’s win over Florida last night moved the Cats into sole possession of third place in the SEC standings at 10-5. Previously, Kentucky was tied with Tennessee, which lost to Texas A&M on Tuesday night. Now, as long as Kentucky wins two of its final three games, the Cats will get the No. 3 seed in Nashville, with Alabama taking the No. 1-seed, Texas A&M the No. 2-seed, and Tennessee the No. 4-seed.

That’s how KenPom sees it going down. Here are the latest projected final standings and bracket, which have the Cats facing the winner of No. 6-seed Missouri and No. 11-seed Georgia/No. 14-seed LSU.

KenPom Projected Final Standings – Feb. 23

1. Alabama (16-2)
2. Texas A&M (15-3)
3. Kentucky (12-6)
4. Tennessee (11-7)
5. Auburn (10-8)
6. Missouri (10-8)
7. Vanderbilt (9-9)
8. Arkansas (9-9)
9. Florida (9-9)
10. Mississippi State (8-10)
11. Georgia (7-11)
12. South Carolina (4-14)
13. Ole Miss (3-15)
14. LSU (3-15)

Projected SEC Tournament Bracket

How could this change with three games left? Let’s take a look.

Win out, Texas A&M loses out – No. 2 seed

The only way Kentucky can move up to the No. 2 seed is if the Cats win out and Texas A&M loses out. That would leave the two teams in a tie at 13-5, with Kentucky holding the tiebreaker. The Aggies play at Mississippi State on Saturday, at Ole Miss on Tuesday, and host Alabama to end the season. Here are the KenPom projections for each:

• Sat., Feb. 25: Mississippi State (Away) – 63-62 L (44%)
• Tue., Feb. 28: Ole Miss (Away) – 72-66 W (69%)
• Sat., Mar. 4: Alabama (Home) – 76-73 L (39%)

Win out or Win 2 of 3 – No. 3 seed

We’ve already covered this scenario, but here are KenPom’s projections for each of Kentucky’s final three games:

• Sat., Feb. 25: Auburn (Home) – 72-70 W (58%)
• Tue., Mar. 1: Vanderbilt (Home) – 78-70 W (79%)
• Sat., Mar. 4: Arkansas (Away) – 75070 L (31%)

Win 1 of 3 – No. 4 or 5 seed

If Kentucky only wins one of its remaining three games, the Cats will fall to 11-7. In that scenario, Tennessee could make the difference between the Cats getting the double bye or playing on Thursday. If Tennessee and Missouri win out, the Volunteers will be 12-6 and get the No. 3-seed and Kentucky and Missouri would be tied at 11-7, with the Tigers holding the tiebreaker and taking the No. 4-seed, booting the Cats to Thursday.

Missouri has the easiest schedule left, playing at Georgia on Saturday, at LSU on Wednesday, and hosting Ole Miss to end the regular season. Let’s assume they win those three. If Tennessee loses one of its final three (South Carolina – home; Arkansas – home; Auburn – away) and Kentucky drops two of its final three, all three teams will be tied in the standings at 11-7. Missouri would win the round-robin tiebreaker, getting the No. 3 seed; Kentucky would get the No. 4 seed; and Tennessee would get the No. 5-seed.

So, if the Cats start losing, root for Tennessee to drop one of its final three to force the three-way tie. If the Vols lose more than one game, Kentucky will be stuck with the No. 5-seed.

Lose out – No. 6 or No. 7 seed

Worst-case scenario, Kentucky would end up with the No. 6 or No. 7 seed depending on how the other games play out. That would mean playing Thursday night for the chance to face either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed on Friday night. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

Just keep winning.