We should expect buckets when Kentucky faces Providence

The moment we’ve all been waiting for has arrived on St. Patrick’s Day. No. 6 seed Kentucky will take the floor at the Greensboro Coliseum on Friday night looking to end a long program drought in the NCAA Tournament.

Kentucky has not won an NCAA Tournament game since knocking off No. 3 seed Houston in the 2019 Sweet 16. We’ve had one tournament cancellation, one season that did not end in an at-large bid, and another where No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s left Indianapolis victorious.

John Calipari’s program will be looking to get a sour taste out of their mouth on Friday night. To get to the winner’s circle, Kentucky must get by a team that is very similar.

Ed Cooley is in his 12th season at Providence. The 53-year-old has the Friars in the NCAA Tournament for the seventh time. That number would be eight if the 2020 tournament was not canceled. Providence made its first Sweet 16 since 1997 last season as Cooley has overachieved during his stint with the Big East program. Not surprisingly, some job rumors are swirling as Georgetown seems to be making a big push for Cooley to move to the nation’s capital where the Hoyas have more resources in the Big East than the Friars.

Before that decision is to be made, a basketball game must be played. In 2022-23, UK and Providence share a similar statistical profile.

• Adjusted offensive efficiency (ranks via KenPom): Kentucky (14), Providence (16)
• Adjusted defensive efficiency: Kentucky (77), Providence (107)
• Offensive rebound percentage: Kentucky (2), Providence (16)
• Three-point field goal percentage: Kentucky (103), Providence (110)
• Three-point field goal attempt rate: Kentucky (329), Providence (317)
• Defensive turnover percentage: Kentucky (263), Providence (256)
• Adjusted pace: Kentucky (257), Providence (195)

The No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchup in the East region will feature two teams with efficient offenses and iffy defenses that don’t force takeaways. Both teams don’t shoot a lot of threes and depend heavily on offensive rebounds for point production. However, both rosters have capable shooters and aren’t afraid to play with pace but typically prefer to slow things down.

The team that handles the defensive glass the best will likely have the advantage. Kentucky (No. 57 in defensive rebound percentage) has both an on-paper and size advantage over Providence (No. 92 in defensive rebound percentage). However, we should not expect a lot of stops in Greensboro.

According to Bart Torvik, Providence is No. 209 in adjusted defensive efficiency since February. The Friars cannot get stops and that has led to a 4-6 record in their last 10 games entering March Madness. That has played out in the betting market.

Providence overs are 6-1 in the last seven games. Kentucky has a similar streak going as their defense has also been an issue all season. UK overs are 9-3 in the last 12 outings. Expect to see some efficient offense on Friday night.

Kentucky is currently a four-point favorite with a total of 143.5 in the matchup with Providence. That’s a projected final score of around 74-70. Recent results tell us that the winner could push toward 80 points in this first-round contest.