Providence over Kentucky a trendy upset pick among national media

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kentucky-providence-trendy-upset-pick-ncaa-tournament-first-round — Photo by Dr. Michael Huang | Kentucky Sports Radio

It’s Bracket Monday, and predictions are flying across the interwebs for who will cut down the nets in Houston. I spent the morning reading them all and you probably won’t be shocked to hear Kentucky is not a popular Final Four pick. In fact, the Cats are a much trendier pick to get upset in the first round. Yeesh!

Here’s a roundup.

Seth Davis: First-Round loss to Providence

I have Providence over Kentucky in the “Bryce Hopkins Game,” the Friars’ leading scorer who transferred from Kentucky last spring. If nothing else, the Friars can make things physically uncomfortable for the Wildcats.

The Athletic also teamed up with a group of Furman math professors to create Bracket Breaker, a statistical model to predict upsets. Providence over Kentucky is the tenth most likely first-round upset at 21.3%.

ESPN‘s Giant Killer model

ESPN Insider’s Giant Killer computer model starts with a base probability of an upset from the ESPN College Basketball Power Index and adds the strengths, weaknesses, and styles of the two teams in each matchup. Providence over Kentucky is one of the ten most likely first-round upsets, with the model setting the likelihood at 40%

No. 11 Providence Friars vs. No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats
Upset Chance: 40%
Last year, John Calipari’s Wildcats were the first team to lose to Cinderella darling Saint Peter’s in a 15-over-2 upset that shook the NCAA tournament. In fact, Kentucky, which has the nation’s leading rebounder in Oscar Tshiebwe (13.1 RPG), hasn’t reached the second weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019, so they have shown they are susceptible to early round upsets.
Perhaps the formula for Providence is to follow the Peacocks. Last year, they ranked among the teams to shoot the fewest amount of 3-pointers per game, but Kentucky couldn’t stop them (9-for-17 from 3). Providence doesn’t shoot as many 3-point shots either, but in averaging 78.1 points per game, the Wildcats will need to keep up with the Friars. Keep in mind that the Friars shoot 38% from deep in their 21 wins, which would rank 21st nationally. However, they shoot 30.4% from beyond the arc in their 11 losses, a figure that would rank 340th.
John Gasaway and Matt Eisenberg, ESPN

USA Today’s Paul Myerberg: First-round loss to Providence

No. 11 Providence has what it takes to knock off No. 6 Kentucky — if the Friars play like the team that had a dominant midseason run instead of the squad that collapsed late. Once 17-5 at near the top of the Big East, Providence lost four of five to end the regular season and limps into the tournament. But it’s not as if Kentucky’s been easy to predict; the Wildcats played better in March but had a hit-or-miss season. The game may be won on the offensive glass: Kentucky ranks fourth in Division I with 13.6 offensive rebounds per game and could fend off the Friars with second-chance points.
Paul Myerberg, USA Today

CBS Sports Sportline: Sweet 16

CBS Sports’ computer model has Kentucky making it to the Sweet 16, but only 55% of the first-round simulations have the Cats over the Friars.

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No. 1 seed Purdue is a strong pick to come out of this region despite being swept by Indiana this season. Kentucky squeaks by Providence in the first round, winning in just 55% of simulations, even though the blue blood program beat Tennessee twice during the regular season. Michigan State falls to USC in the opening round, even though the No. 7 Spartans beat Kentucky and Indiana this season.
CBS Sportsline Staff

CBS Sports Staff

Gary Parrish: Second-round loss to Kansas State
Matt Norlander: Sweet 16 loss to Marquette
Kyle Boone: Elite Eight loss to Duke
Chip Patterson: Sweet 16 loss to Marquette
Dennis Dodd: Second-round loss to Kansas State

Matt Norlander ranked each team in the tournament No. 1-68. Kentucky is No. 24.

The good: Kentucky, on balance, has looked something like a top-20 team for about a month now. The bad: its three most recent losses are to Georgia and Vanderbilt twice. The only team that faced more week-over-week angst and media attention for its inconsistencies this season was North Carolina, and it’s not in this tournament. Kentucky is, and Calipari’s made some magic with underachieving UK teams in the past. The Wildcats have 2021-22 NPOY Oscar Tshiebwe back, and although he hasn’t been a top-10 player this season, he’s still in the next group. Freshman point guard Cason Wallace could be primed for a breakout performance, but it seems vital for Antonio Reeves to be the alpha for UK to make a run.
Matt Norlander, CBS Sports

Andy Katz: Second-Round loss to Kansas State

Katz has the Cats getting past Providence but losing to Kansas State in the second round.

ESPN’s Jeff Borzello: Sweet 16 loss to Marquette

No. 6 Kentucky 75, No. 11 Providence 69
No. 6 Kentucky 68, No. 3 Kansas State 66
No. 2 Marquette 72, No. 6 Kentucky 64

In the bottom half of the bracket, there’s the potential for a Bryce Hopkins revenge game in the first round as Providence takes on Kentucky, but we’re going with the Wildcats beating a different set of Wildcats in the second round. My pick in this region? Marquette, which just rolled past Xavier in the Big East title game and seems to be playing with a different edge right now. If the Golden Eagles defend like they did this past weekend, they’re heading to Houston.
Jeff Borzello, ESPN

Mike DeCourcy: Sweet 16 loss to Marquette

Over at Ths Sporting News, Mike DeCourcy also has the Cats making it to the Sweet 16 and losing to Marquette. He picked Kentucky vs. Providence as his best first-round game in the East Region and the Cats as his sleeper team.

Wouldn’t it be just like John Calipari to respond to the barrage of in-season criticism – which included multiple members of the national media openly calling for Cal and Kentucky to “separate” – to conjure a significant March Madness run? He did it once before, in 2014, when the Wildcats struggled through the regular season and were beaten handily by a poor South Carolina team in the first weekend of March.
That team went on to play in the NCAA championship game as an No. 8 seed. This team is unlikely to do that. But the Cats could hang around a while.
Mike DeCourcy, The Sporting News

DeCourcy’s Sporting News coworker Bill Bender also has the Cats falling in the Sweet 16, but the rest of the staff picked Providence to pull off the first-round upset.

Mike DeCourcy: Sweet 16 loss to Marquette
Bill Bender: Sweet 16 loss to Marquette
Ryan Fagan: First-round loss to Providence
Elliott Pohnl: First-round loss to Providence

Field of 68

Riley Davis named Kentucky vs. Providence one of his five “must-watch matchups.”

Think revenge will factor into this one? Providence forward Bryce Hopkins takes on his old team, where he played just six minutes per game. Since leaving Lexington, he has developed into one of the Big East’s best players and a matchup nightmare at the 4-spot. Beyond his showdown with Jacob Toppin, keep an eye on the Friars’ defense against a Wildcats offense that has been sneakily efficient over the past month. (Friday, 7 pm, CBS)
Riley Davis, Field of 68

Jeff Goodman, Doug Gottlieb, Tyler Hansbrough, and LaVall Jordan broke down the pressure on Kentucky heading into Friday’s game. Goodman said he’ll be in Greensboro in case the Cats lose to Providence in the first round. Tyler Hansbrough seemed giddy about the possibility.