Kentucky receivers have a case of the sophomore drops

The last thing anyone wants to do after a huge program win is to be a wet blanket. However, it is hard not to at least acknowledge the one area of the Kentucky football team that hasn’t quite lived up to the preseason hype. So, if you don’t mind me temporarily dampening a dish rag and applying it ever so gently for just a moment, we’ll remove it quickly and get back to dancing on State Street.

Okay, are you ready? Here is the stat worthy of a collective groan: Dane Key and Barion Brown each have four drops this season. Only one other player in the SEC, Will Sheppard of Vanderbilt, has more with six.

However, the big difference between Kentucky’s wideouts and Will Sheppard is that Sheppard is opportunities. He has gobbled up 56 targets this season, while Devin Leary has only thrown the direction of Key and Brown 28 and 37 times respectively.

Sure, Leary has had some errant throws, but thanks to advanced analytics, we know Key has dropped 23.5 percent of his on-target opportunities and Brown has dropped 17.4 percent of his.

This is the worst and next to worst in the SEC amongst players with at least 20 targets.

Overall, Kentucky is tied for 12th in the SEC with 10 total drops on the year. Jordan Dingle and Ray Davis have the team’s other two.

Devin Leary leads college football in drop percentage

With his two top choices having a case of the drops, Devin Leary leads the NCAA among all quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts in drop percentage. 11 percent of the time Leary has thrown a pass on target, his receiver has dropped the pass.

Just think if this was even average. Kentucky has been the most efficient team in all of college football when it comes to running the ball, a complementary passing game is the only thing stopping this very good offense from being elite.

Drop percentage among P5 QBs (accoring to PFF data, minimum 150 attempts)

Devin Leary (Kentucky): 11.0%
AJ Swann (Vanderbilt): 10.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa (Maryland): 10.4%
Donovan Smith (Houston): 10.1%
Garrett Shrader (Syracuse): 9.4%

— Adam Luckett (@AdamLuckettKSR) October 1, 2023

Why the sudden case of the drops?

Barion Brown had five drops all of last season and Dane Key only had one. If anyone knows the reason why the usually sure-handed duo lost the stickiness on their hands this season, please let Mark Stoops know. It is a mystery to all.

The easiest rationale is that they have a different quarterback throwing them the ball. Maybe all that talk about Leary throwing a more “catchable” ball than Will Levis isn’t true after all. Timing has been an issue too, but that shouldn’t factor too much into the drops.

The good news is that based on last season, we know both Key and Brown are better than this. Maybe it is the new quarterback, maybe it is the proverbial sophomore slump, or perhaps they simply got a case of the Chuck Knoblauch yips.

Either way, I still have confidence this stat will regress to the mean and these playmakers will go back to their familiar ways of bringing in every catchable ball thrown their way.

Now, toss that wet dish rag in the dumpster, and let’s get hyped to go down to Athens and beat Georgia.