What the computers say about Kentucky's chances in SEC play

No. 10 Kentucky opens SEC play vs. No. 6 Florida on Saturday (11 a.m., ESPN) after finishing the non-conference slate 11-2. As you’ve likely heard ad nauseam, the SEC is historically strong this season, with ten teams in the AP Top 25, five in the top ten. All but two SEC teams are in the top 50 of the NET Rankings and as of now, 13 are projected to make the NCAA Tournament, which would be a record for any conference.

Fourteen of Kentucky’s remaining 18 games are in Quad 1. The NET changes daily, but if Kentucky finishes the regular season with 18 Quad 1 games on its team sheet, it will be the most since the NET was implemented at the start of the 2018-19 season, which is a testament to the strength of the league.

Even the most optimistic Kentucky fan knows the Cats will not make it through SEC play unscathed. But how many losses will they take? I don’t have a crystal ball, but let’s see what the computers say. We’ll start with the KenPom ratings, which paint the bleakest forecast for the Cats in Mark Pope’s first season in the SEC.

KenPom: 9-9 SEC, 20-11 overall

KenPom projects nine losses for the Cats in the SEC, starting Saturday with Florida. Six of those losses come on the road, with three in a row toward the end of the regular season. As of now, KenPom does not have the Cats winning either game vs. Tennessee or the sole matchups vs. the Gators and Auburn at Rupp. It does have Kentucky winning the home game vs. Alabama (although by just one point) and beating Arkansas by seven on Feb. 1.

• 1/4: Florida (47% chance of victory)
• 1/11: at Mississippi State (36%)
• 1/28: at Tennessee (18%)
• 2/4: at Ole Miss (46%)
• 2/11: Tennessee (41%)
• 2/15: at Texas (44%)
• 2/22: at Alabama (28%)
• 2/26: at Oklahoma (46%)
• 3/1: Auburn (27%)

If KenPom’s projections hold, Kentucky would finish seventh in the SEC behind Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State. That would mean playing the winner of the No. 15/No. 10 seed matchup in the first game Thursday night at the SEC Tournament.

---

BartTorvik: 10-8 SEC, 21-10 overall

Bart Torvik, another popular metric, paints a slightly rosier picture for the Cats, projecting them to finish SEC play 10-8, 21-10 overall. That includes a win over Florida on Saturday but a loss to Georgia on the road in the next game. From there, Torvik’s projections line up with KenPom’s except for the game at Oklahoma, which it projects the Cats to win by a point.

• 1/7: at Georgia (48% chance of victory)
• 1/11: at Mississippi State (42%)
• 1/28: at Tennessee (18%)
• 2/4: at Ole Miss (50%)
• 2/11: Tennessee (42%)
• 2/15: at Texas (47%)
• 2/22: at Alabama (27%)
• 3/1: Auburn (34%)

Auburn is by far the favorite to win the SEC regular season title in Torvik’s WinMatrix (39.2%). It gives Kentucky a 1.6% chance of winning it outright and a 4.2% chance of sharing it.

---

ESPN BPI: 11-7 SEC, 22-9 overall

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index is the highest on the Cats, projecting only seven conference losses. Like the other metrics, that includes losses to Tennessee (both home and away) and Auburn. The BPI gives Kentucky a 3.3% chance of winning the SEC.

• 1/11: at Mississippi State
• 1/28: at Tennessee
• 2/4: at Ole Miss
• 2/11: Tennessee
• 2/15: at Texas
• 2/22: at Alabama
• 3/1: Auburn

We’ll check in on these projections each week. Buckle up for what should be a wild three months.

Take advantage of our KSR+ Introductory Offer to get bonus coverage of the Cats, including game threads, in-depth scouting reports, and the latest recruiting and roster intel. $1 for seven days.