ESPN: Kentucky's offensive newcomers will determine season

Talking season is in full swing for college football coaches, which means preview season is in full swing for college football writers. Earlier this week, Bill Connelly released his SEC East Preview on ESPN+. Not surprisingly, Connelly predicts Georgia to win the division — again — but included in his very thorough breakdown are some interesting comments on Kentucky.

Connelly believes Kentucky’s defense will “probably be excellent again” despite some turnover in the secondary. The real question is on offense. Connelly notes Kentucky’s offensive struggles last season and said that for the Cats to succeed in 2023, Liam Coen and Devin Leary need to click.

Coen was in charge of Kentucky’s only top-50 offense since 2016, and he’ll have some decent toys to play with. For starters, those key freshmen are sophomores. That includes high-efficiency slot man Barion Brown and left guard Jager Burton, both of whom were star recruits and solid contributors. (Burton is one of four returning linemen.) It also includes another veteran quarterback who, like Levis, battled through a disappointing 2022. Devin Leary comes over from NC State; after a solid 2021 and top-30 Total QBR ranking, Leary’s stats regressed in virtually every category last season, then he was lost to injury in October.

Kentucky has averaged eight wins a year over the past half-decade, and that’s pretty good living in Lexington. But if the Wildcats have grander ambitions (like, say, a repeat of 2021’s 10-win campaign), it will require Coen to capture some magic with Leary like he did with Levis two years ago.

Bill Connelly, ESPN+

As we’ve said ad nauseam on this site, the offensive line plays a huge part in how far the Cats can go. Keeping Devin Leary healthy is priority No. 1. Thus far, Stoops and staff have made the right moves to shore up a crumbling Big Blue Wall. We’ll see if it translates to the field starting in… (checks calendar) 43 days.

Kentucky’s defense 2nd in the SEC East in SP+ Rankings

Give Connelly credit for honesty. Instead of analyzing who could challenge Georgia in the SEC East, he looks inward at how the Bulldogs could sabotage their chances of winning their third straight national championship. That not only speaks to how the Bulldogs are but also their schedule. Georgia’s only true road games are Auburn, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech.

So, what about the race for second in the East? Here are the SP+ Rankings for each team, with national rank in parentheses. As you can see, Kentucky ranks No. 22 overall, fourth in the SEC East, while the Cats’ defense is in the top five, second in the division behind only Georgia. The metric predicts Kentucky will average 7.2 wins, 3.7 in the league.

TEAM	SP+ RK	OFF.	DEF.	AVG. W	CONF. W
Georgia	29.9 (1)	41.9 (9)	11.9 (3)	10.5	6.6
Tennessee	23.9 (6)	45.5 (3)	21.6 (31)	9.1	5.2
Florida	14.8 (21)	37.4 (23)	22.6 (38)	6.4	3.7
Kentucky	14.5 (22)	28.1 (59)	13.7 (5)	7.2	3.7
South Carolina	11.6 (33)	37.9 (20)	26.3 (64)	6.1	3.4
Missouri	11.1 (34)	29.4 (52)	18.3 (17)	6.3	3.2
Vanderbilt	-3.1 (69)	29.2 (53)	32.3 (99)	3.9	1.1

“It makes perfect sense that Georgia starts out an easy first and Tennessee starts out an easy second,” Connelly writes. “The drama starts after that. The next four teams on the list are projected within 3.8 points (and 1.1 average wins) of each other. Whoever manages offensive personnel changes the best could end up with a lovely nine- or 10-win campaign. And whoever doesn’t is probably looking at 5-7 or worse.”

Deone Walker among Connelly’s 10 Favorite SEC East Players

There are plenty of stars to choose from in the SEC East. Connelly included Kentucky’s Deone Walker in his list of ten favorite SEC East players, giving the massive defensive tackle some much-deserved love.

“He’s 6-foot-6 and 348 pounds, and last season he averaged nearly 40 snaps per game (and led an excellent UK run defense in run stops), all as a three-star true freshman. He also batted down three passes.”

Bill, your Deone Walker Fan Club badge is in the mail. Welcome aboard.

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