Kentucky's early SEC Tournament exit raises stakes for already tense week

There are a lot of frustrating things about last night’s game. In many ways, the 80-73 loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals felt like a carbon copy of the 68-66 loss to the ‘Dores on Senior Night at Rupp Arena ten days ago. Once again, the Cats were plagued by all their bad habits: missed shots, turnovers, and defensive breakdowns. Kentucky’s 11-20 mark from the free-throw line — many of those misses coming on the front end of a 1-and-1 in crunch time — was abhorrent and, by itself, could have been the difference in the game.

Just like in Lexington, Vanderbilt outplayed Kentucky, beating the Cats with the same script even though the coaching staff had over a week to prepare for a potential rematch. That alone is infuriating and a post all its own. Instead, I’m going to focus on what I lost sleep over last night: what the loss means for the week ahead because it’s going to be a rough one.

Before jumping back into the misery pit, let’s start by acknowledging that at least twice this season, Kentucky has rebounded from a disappointing loss with a spectacular win. Few had faith the Cats would go to Knoxville and beat No. 5 Tennessee after the loss to South Carolina in Rupp, but they did. The same goes for the victory at Arkansas after the loss to Vanderbilt last week. The wins at Mississippi State and vs. Tennessee in Rupp after the loss at Georgia were similarly surprising. Whenever you count this team out, they prove you wrong, which is the narrative to cling to right now if you’re looking for hope going into the NCAA Tournament. At the end of last night’s press conference, it brought a smile to an otherwise sullen John Calipari’s face.

“That’s what we’re going to talk about right there,” Calipari said. “Every time we’ve taken a spill, the whole country jumps on us, it seems like they come back with a vengeance. That is the plan.”

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With the early exit, Kentucky also gets some extra much-needed rest, another silver lining. Even though Cason Wallace (ankle) started and played 20 minutes, he and others are clearly not 100%. Rest and recovery will be paramount for the next two days as the Cats await their NCAA Tournament fate; you could even argue it’s worth an early conference tournament loss.

…But Kentucky’s situation is complicated. The Cats haven’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2019. The 2020 tournament was obviously canceled, Kentucky didn’t make the tournament in 2021, and last year, the Cats lost in the first round to No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s. With several core veterans from that group back, including Oscar Tshiebwe, who crumpled into tears in Indy when the buzzer sounded, you don’t think that’s going to be weighing on them this week?

That pressure is completely unfair, especially for the newcomers, but it’s unavoidable and only going to get worse as the week goes on. Even just one win in Nashville would have lessened it and built on the momentum from the win at Arkansas. The fans in Bridgestone Arena were ready, roaring to life in hopes of spurring a Kentucky rally. Now, they’re all headed home with less money and more questions as we brace for the most uncertain week of all.

So, will The Unpredictables rally once more? Calipari’s comments provide some hope, but also cause for concern.

“They play better when they have nothing to lose,” Calipari said last night. “I call it stinking thinking. You can’t worry about how you’re playing, missing a shot, you just lock into the team, and do what the team needs you to do, and when we play that way, we’re as good as anybody in the country.

“When we start thinking too much, ‘I miss a shot, I miss a free throw, I struggle playing, we got to get through that.'”

Calipari is right. Kentucky’s biggest wins have come when they had nothing to lose. No one would have lost their mind over losses to Tennessee, Arkansas, or even Mississippi State. The Cats were underdogs in all of those games. But starting next week, it’s win-or-go-home, and given Kentucky’s recent postseason history, there is a lot to lose.

Another first-round loss would be devastating, and the ensuing offseason miserable. Just getting to the second weekend feels like a win, which is jarring given the preseason Final-Four-or-bust expectations. Last year’s loss to Saint Peter’s is going to follow the Cats everywhere this week, the biggest mental hurdle of all for a team whose defining trait is inconsistency; clearing it would be bigger than any win this season.

“We’ve shown who we are,” Calipari said. “We can beat anybody. I hate to tell you, we could get beat by anybody, too, if we’re not fighting and playing desperate. Playing, like we were saying, refuse to lose, just do what you got to do. Didn’t do it today.”

Gotta do it next time out. You’ve just got to.