SEC Tournament double-bye window has opened up for Kentucky

Just one week ago things were looking bleak for Kentucky basketball when discussing SEC Tournament seeding scenarios. Without an epic finish to the season, the Wildcats were likely looking at beginning the conference tournament on Thursday for just the second time in 16 years.

Then chaos happened this week.

The party started when Vanderbilt upset Texas A&M on Tuesday. Things got really crazy when LSU erased a 16-point second half deficit to beat South Carolina on the road. Kentucky followed that up with a big win at Auburn.

The current SEC standings are a mess and the projections also tell us that we could see a tight race down the stretch for the No. 4 seed at the SEC Tournament. In just one week, Kentucky has created a clear path.

Current Standings

1. Alabama (10-2)
2. Tennessee (9-3)
3. Auburn (9-4)
4. South Carolina (9-4)
5. Kentucky (8-4)
6. Florida (8-4)
7. Ole Miss (6-6)
8. Mississippi State (6-6)
9. Texas A&M (6-6)
10. LSU (5-7)
11. Georgia (4-8)
12. Arkansas (3-9)
13. Vanderbilt (2-10)
14. Missouri (0-12)

Projected Final SEC Standings

There are only three weeks remaining the regular season and most SEC teams have six conference games left to play. Using KenPom‘s projections, we have a decent idea on what to expect to occur when final seeding takes place for the SEC Tournament.

It currently looks like a three-team race for the regular season title while things have opened up for Kentucky to clinch a double-bye.

1. Alabama (14-4)
2. Tennessee (13-5)
3. Auburn (13-5)
4. Kentucky (12-6)
5. Florida (12-6)
6. South Carolina (11-7)
7. Ole Miss (9-9)
8. Texas A&M (9-9)
9. Mississippi State (9-9)
10. LSU (8-10)
11. Georgia (6-12)
12. Arkansas (5-13)
13. Vanderbilt (3-15)
14. Missouri (1-17)

Based on projections, the tiebreaker between Kentucky and Florida would trickle all the way down to No. 7 seed Ole Miss. Since Kentucky beat the Rebels and the Gators lost to the Rebels, UK would own the tiebreaker.

Some of these tiebreaker situations can get messy and are certainly something worth monitoring over the next three weeks.

Kentucky needs to finish ahead of South Carolina

South Carolina owns a head-to-head win over Kentucky. Due to that, Kentucky would not win any tiebreaker with the Gamecocks unless we got a four-way tie. Therefore, the Wildcats need to finish ahead of Lamont Paris’ team in the win/loss column.

That currently seems very possible.

The Gamecocks now have four league losses following the weekend with remaining games against Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Florida, Tennessee, and Mississippi State. Carolina could be an underdog in each game. A 10-8 finish seems highly likely. Getting to 12-6 could be difficult for this team.

South Carolina’s backloaded schedule opens the door for Kentucky.

Alabama could determine Kentucky vs. Florida tiebreaker

Kentucky is currently tied with Florida at 8-4 in conference play. These two teams played twice this year and split the regular season meetings. The Gators have three games remaining against Vanderbilt and Missouri. Kentucky has two games remaining against Vanderbilt and Arkansas.

Both teams have winnable games left on the slate, but each must still go through Alabama. Kentucky only has to do that once.

The Crimson Tide host Florida on Wednesday and then make the road trip to Gainesville on March 5. Just one win by Nate Oats’ squad would give UK the tiebreaker over Florida if Kentucky can defeat Bama at home on Feb. 24.

Both teams beat Auburn in their only meeting against Bruce Pearl’s team so that is off the table. Florida lost to Tennessee in their only meeting. Kentucky could grab that tiebreaker if they are able to beat the Vols in Knoxville.

But the most achievable tiebreaker will be with Alabama. If Kentucky wins out at home and goes 1-2 on the road that could be enough to secure the No. 4 seed at 12-6. Florida still has the two games against Alabama and must go to South Carolina. Those are three difficult games for Todd Golden’s squad.

Catching Auburn could be difficult

Kentucky is only a half game back in the loss column of Auburn and now owns the tiebreaker over the Tigers. Unfortunately, Bruce Pearl’s team just got through the toughest part of its schedule.

Auburn still has to go to Tennessee (Feb. 28), but this team gets two games against Georgia, a home contest with Mississippi State, and a road game against Missouri. A 4-1 finish seems very possible.

Catching Tennessee (9-3) is not out of the question. Kentucky still has one more head-to-head game against the Vols. Rick Barnes’ team also has to go to Alabama and South Carolina in addition to hosting Auburn. Tennessee has some tough SEC games left. Tennessee could see some slippage in the top of the standings over the last three weeks.