Kentucky still has shot at double bye in SEC Tournament

Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament hopes took a big hit on Saturday afternoon at Stegeman Colisuem. The Wildcats dropped a Quadrant 2 game to Georgia and own a resume that is severely lacking quality wins with just three weeks remaining in the regular season.

Kentucky still has at least four Quadrant 1 games remaining on the slate so there is time to get back into the projected Field of 68, but playing in the First Four seems likely at this point if the Cats do earn an at-large bid. Kentucky also has a chance to earn a good SEC Tournament seed after Saturday’s results.

Upset City in the league arrived on Saturday as road teams went 5-2 in the seven games played. That has opened things up for Kentucky despite a loss to Georgia. Using KenPom‘s projections after 12 games have been team, let’s dive into what the standings could finish as.

1. Alabama (17-1)
2. Texas A&M (13-5)
3. Tennessee (12-6)
4. Missouri (11-7)
5. Kentucky (10-8)
6. Auburn (10-8)
7. Florida (10-8)
8. Mississippi State (9-9)
9. Vanderbilt (9-9)
10. Arkansas (9-9)
11. Georgia (7-11)
12. Ole Miss (4-14)
13. LSU (3-15)
14. South Carolina (3-15)

Kentucky needs to pull some upsets

At the end of the day, this Kentucky team needs some Quadrant 1 wins to get itself on the right side of the bubble. Getting to a No. 10 seed is even possible if the Cats can get to 21 wins. But winning is the most important thing whether projecting for the SEC Tournament or NCAA Tournament.

When looking at the six remaining contests, Kentucky is slated to be an underdog in four games with the Auburn matchup at Rupp Arena on Feb. 25 set to be a one-possession line that could flip either way. It’s now or never for this team.

There is a shot at the No. 4 seed to earn the double bye if Kentucky can can go 4-2 the rest of the way, but some surprises will be needed for that to happen.

Missouri is in the way

Thanks to a 89-75 win on Dec. 28 in the SEC opener, Missouri owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Kentucky since these teams only met once. That could end up being a bid deal.

Following a huge win on Saturday against Tennessee on the road, the Tigers improved to 7-5 in league play and have games against Georgia, Ole Miss, and LSU remaining. At worse, Mizzou likely finishes 10-8 but a 12-6 mark could also be possible in year one for head coach Dennis Gates.

Kentucky will not be able to grab a double bye unless Mizzou drops at least two to three games down the stretch.

Tiebreaker scenarios will be determined

You can only control what you can control. For Kentucky, that means worrying about the remaining opponents on the schedule and taking this three-game stretch one game at a time. But most of these games could determine important scenarios.

Kentucky is now projected to be in a three-way tie with Auburn and Florida at 10-8. UK already owns a head-to-head win over Florida and will host Auburn next weekend. With the Gators having a loss to Auburn already, the game on Feb. 25 could determine the top seed between UK and Auburn. Due to game times at the SEC Tournament, you would much rather be locked into the No. 5 seed than the No. 6 seed.

Following Saturday’s home loss to Mississippi State, Arkansas remains one game back in the loss column of Kentucky. The Hogs still have to face Alabama, Tennessee, and Texas A&M on the road before the season ends. It seems unlikely that the Hogs could get to 11-7, but Kentucky could find itself in a situation battling with Eric Musselman’s squad to stay out of the dreaded No. 8 vs. No. 9 game.

The season finale at Bud Walton Arena could end up being a huge tiebreaker contest between Kentucky and Arkansas.