Kentucky officially controls SEC Tournament double-bye path with one game to play

The mid-week action went exactly how Kentucky needed it to go. John Calipari’s team completed the season sweep of Vanderbilt to improve to 12-5 in league play. The Wildcats are now 7-1 in their last eight conference games with the only loss being of the buzzer beater variety at LSU.

Thanks to some help from some foes in the conference this week, Kentucky is now potentially just one win away from locking up the No. 2 seed in the SEC Tournament. There is also a path to the No. 3 seed and No. 4 seed for the Cats. Each means a double-bye in Nashville.

The party got started on Tuesday night when Florida knocked off Alabama as Nate Oats’ team is now 1-3 in its last four SEC games and has fallen quickly to 12-5. On Wednesday, Tennessee locked up the No. 1 seed for the SEC Tournament with a road win over South Carolina. That dropped the Gamecocks to 12-5. An Auburn win over Missouri got Bruce Pearl’s team to 12-5.

We now have a four-way tie for second-place in the SEC heading into the final weekend. There are only three double-bye spots up for grabs. Florida can get to 12-6 which could cause issues for everyone depending on who finishes No. 7 in the standings.

For now, Kentucky owns the No. 2 seed due to tiebreakers. But what if the Cats lose to the Vols? What happens if a four-way tie at second-place becomes a three-way tie? KSR is breaking down all of Kentucky’s remaining SEC Tournament scenarios right now.

Current SEC seeds

1. Tennessee (14-3)
2. Kentucky (12-5)
3. Alabama (12-5)
4. Auburn (12-5)
5. South Carolina (12-5)
6. Florida (11-6)
7. Texas A&M (8-9)
8. Mississippi State (8-9)
9. LSU (8-9)
10. Ole Miss (7-10)
11. Georgia (6-11)
12. Arkansas (6-11)
13. Vanderbilt (3-14)
14. Missouri (0-17)

How does Kentucky secure the No. 2 seed?

1. Beat Tennessee + South Carolina loses to Mississippi State OR
2. Beat Tennessee + South Carolina beats Mississippi State + Auburn beats Georgia + Alabama beats Arkansas
3. Kentucky + Alabama + Auburn + South Carolina all lose on Saturday

Kentucky needs to be in a four-way tie to earn the tiebreaker over South Carolina. The Gamecocks own a head-to-head win over Tennessee and Kentucky. That gives Lamont Paris’ team the tiebreakers over Kentucky in any other scenario. The Cats need a South Carolina to lose or for the four-way tie to stay locked up through Saturday. If a five-way tie occurs at 12-6 with Florida joining the party, Kentucky would win that tiebreaker due to pool play winning percentage.

How does Kentucky secure the No. 3 seed?

1. Kentucky beats Tennessee + South Carolina beats Mississippi State + one of Alabama or Auburn loses
2. South Carolina beats Mississippi State + Alabama, Auburn, and Kentucky all lose

To put it as simply as possible, a South Carolina win plus just one Alabama or Auburn loss will immediately make Kentucky’s ceiling a No. 3 seed in the SEC Tournament. The Cats have to be in a four-way tie to win the tiebreaker over the Gamecocks.

How does Kentucky secure the No. 4 seed?

1. One of Alabama or Auburn wins + Kentucky loses to Tennessee + South Carolina loses to Mississippi
2. Kentucky loses to Tennessee + South Carolina beats Mississippi State + One of Alabama or Auburn loses

If one of Georgia (at Auburn) or Arkansas (at Alabama) pulled off an upset this weekend, Kentucky could secure the No. 4 seed. The Alabama/Auburn team at 13-5 would move to the No. 2 slot. South Carolina would win a three-team tiebreaker — and a four-team tiebreaker involving Florida — for the No. 3 seed at 12-6. Kentucky would be next in line, and could lock up the final double-bye spot.

No matter what happens with South Carolina, there is a No. 4 seed path for Kentucky

How does Kentucky secure the No. 5 seed?

1. Kentucky loses to Tennessee + South Carolina, Alabama, and Auburn each win.

If the rest of the four-way tie wins out and Kentucky loses on Saturday, then the Cats will drop to the No. 5 slot. That is now the floor for Kentucky.