Kentucky still has work to do for SEC Tournament double-bye

by:Adam Luckett•about 13 hours•

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Mar 4, 2023; Greenville, SC, USA; General view of the SEC logo with court at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-Imagn Images

The 2025 SEC season is quickly becoming a battle of attrition. Teams must protect their home floor and steal some victories on the road to become true contenders in this conference. Alabama and Auburn both squeezed out road wins on Wednesday. There’s a reason those two teams are at the top of the conference.

Everyone else might be battling for the No. 3 and No. 4 spots when it comes to SEC Tournament seeding. With six additional teams currently projected to reach at least 10 conference wins at KenPom, we could have quite the battle on our hands over the last month-plus of the season.

Kentucky took a step forward with a road win over Tennessee. The Vols and Mississippi State took a step back with mid-week home losses.

Current standings

Auburn (7-0)
Alabama (7-1)
Missouri (5-2)
Florida (5-2)
Texas A&M (5-3)
Ole Miss (5-3)
Vanderbilt (4-3)
Kentucky (4-3)
Tennessee (4-4)
Mississippi State (4-4)
Texas (3-5)
Georgia (3-5)
Oklahoma (2-5)
LSU (1-6)
Arkansas (1-6)
South Carolina (0-8)

Kentucky would play the winner of Tennessee-South Carolina in the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game on Thursday afternoon at the SEC Tournament if the season ended today. The winner would face Auburn on Friday.

Projected SEC standings

Using KenPom‘s projections, this is what the SEC Tournament field would look like. I used some projected results to find tiebreaker winners. There are eight games projected to reach double-digit wins. Kentucky moved up a couple of spots but is projected to lose both tiebreaker games to Missouri and Ole Miss.

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Auburn (16-2)
Alabama (13-5)
Florida (12-6)
Texas A&M (11-7)
Tennessee (11-7)
Missouri (10-8)
Ole Miss (10-8)
Kentucky (10-8)
Mississippi State (9-9)
Vanderbilt (8-10)
Texas (8-10)
Georgia (7-11)
Oklahoma (6-12)
Arkansas (5-13)
LSU (4-14)
South Carolina (3-15)

The victory in Knoxville gives Kentucky head-to-head wins over teams projected to finish No. 3-5 in this projection. The Cats also own the head-to-head tiebreaker against Mississippi State. That is all significant but two road games loom large at the moment.

Kentucky travels to Ole Miss (Feb. 4) and Missouri (March 8). Both of those games could determine out seeding shakes out for the SEC Tournament. The Cats have 11 remaining conference games and six occur against teams projected to finish with a losing record in league play. Not slipping up in any of those matchups will be important.

Getting to the No. 1 or No. 2 line will be difficult, but landing in the No. 3 spot feels very possible. Kentucky is firmly in the mix with 38.9 percent of the conference slate complete.